The UNLV Rebels (10-2) and Boise State Broncos (8-4) meet in Friday’s Mountain West Conference Championship Game in Boise, Idaho. The tussle at Albertsons Stadium will kick off at 8 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the UNLV vs. Boise State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
UNLV, which went 6-2 in the MWC, last played Saturday when the -7.5 Rebels defeated their in-state rival Nevada Wolf Pack 42-17 (Over 52.5). After dropping back-to-back games on Oct. 18 (a 56-31 loss to these Broncos) and Nov. 1 (40-35 to Nee Mexico Lobos), UNLV rallied to win its last 4 regular-season games.
Boise State last played the day after after Thanksgiving when it eked out a 25-24 (Under 54.5) triumph over the +2.5 Utah State Aggies. The Broncos were held to 25 points despite throwing for a season-high 341 yards. Like the Rebels, they also went 6-2 in conference play.
BSU’s Oct. 18 win (in a home game in Boise) marked its 10th straight win over UNLV. The Rebels have not defeated Broncos since 1976, and Boise State leads the all-time series 12-3.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
UNLV at Boise State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:27 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): UNLV +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Boise State -200 (bet $200 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): UNLV +4.5 (-105) | Boise State -4.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)UNLV at Boise State picks and predictionsPrediction
Boise State 31, UNLV 28
No interest; PASS.
Against the number, UNLV is 3-1 over its last 4 games; BSU is 1-3 over its last 4. Over their last 7 road games, the Rebels have gone 6-1 ATS.
From an advanced-stats perspective, this matchup pits offense-leaning UNLV against defense-leaning BSU. And unless the defense in question is top-of-the-crop caliber — think Ohio State Buckeyes or Indiana Hooosiers level — the team with the better offense should usually be the profitable betting side in such a game.
The Rebels are excellent in staying on schedule in early downs and in creating explosive plays. UNLV’s 69 plays of 20 yards-plus ranks first in the MWC. Boise has allowed a worse-than-average 55 such plays. And the Broncos defense has been awful in the red zone.
Things went sideways in the Oct. 18 meeting won by the Broncos. But at halftime, UNLV trailed by just 4 points (28-24).
Revenge-minded UNLV +4.5 (-105) is the value side in this league title game.
The Over is 4-1 across BSU’s last 5 home games. The Over 60.5 did a fly-by in the October meeting when these 2 teams combined for 1,034 total yards.
The red-zone profiles for both sides favor more 6s and less 3s in this matchup. Figure on big plays and turnovers having an impact. Both sides are adept at creating takeaways.
Rain is in the Boise forecast, but give the nod to some close-game point spiral winning out. The OVER 58.5 (-115) is worth a partial-unit look.
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