Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers tackle the pressing questions and biggest storylines around the division. This week, we discuss why a division that’s typically one of the most competitive has fallen so short of expectations and ponder what it would take to make this year successful for each team.
Just two seasons ago, all four AFC North teams finished above .500. How quickly things change. This year, the division might be the worst in football. Why do you think it’s been such a down year?
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): Two things stand out to me. First, so much of a team’s success revolves around the quarterback position. The Browns and Steelers have yet to find their longterm guy and that’s, obviously, going to be an impediment to winning. Meanwhile, injuries have stalled Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson this year. Burrow missed a lot more time than Jackson, but Jackson hasn’t looked like himself physically since early in the season. Second, it seems like all four teams lack balance. The Bengals have had an elite offense, but a historically bad defense. The Ravens defense stunk early and now their offense is struggling. The Browns have one of the league’s best defenses and one of the league’s worst offenses. The Steelers seem to struggle to have both their offense and defense in peak form at the same time. It’s hard to beat quality teams when you have to overcome one side of the ball on a weekly basis.
Mike DeFabo (Steelers): Historically, this division has been home to some of the most dominant defenses of all-time. Recently, it featured a pair of perennial MVP candidates at QB. You can’t say either part of that is true this season. Since I cover the Steelers, let’s start with them: They are spending more on defense than anyone team in the league, only to be sitting 20th in points per game allowed (24.1). The Ravens (21st) and Bengals (32nd) are even worse. Meanwhile, injuries to Jackson and Burrow have prevented talented offenses from reaching their full potential.
Dehner Jr. (Bengals): The answer to the division’s problems are no different than those nearly every team dissecting disappointment. Don’t overthink this: It’s the quarterbacks. Jackson and Burrow both missed spells due to injury. The Steelers are still searching and can’t complete a pass down the field. The Browns have more starting quarterbacks than wins. Unquestionably, the defenses of the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers deserve blame, but specifically with Cincinnati and Baltimore, this goes back to problems with the health of the team’s engine.
Zac Jackson (Browns): Quarterback play and quarterback availability. You can survive throwing 4-yard passes in today’s NFL, but you can’t thrive. It’s particularly bizarre this season because Joe Flacco has started for two AFC North teams and the Steelers have had the most quarterback stability but have a terrible offense. Obviously, the Bengals’ defense was historically bad for three months and the Browns might be the most imbalanced team in some time in terms of stellar defense vs. incompetent offense, but this is a quarterback league.
One of the teams from this division will make the playoffs. Throw out the records for now: Which team would be most dangerous if they can get in?
Zrebiec: I think if you posed this question to coaches from the Patriots, Broncos and Bills, the AFC North team they’d probably least want to see in the playoffs is the Bengals and I say that knowing that two of those teams have already beaten Cincinnati. They did it without having to face Burrow, though. A healthy Burrow, that collection of weapons and an improving offensive line makes the Bengals the most dangerous team. Burrow is good in cold weather and he has a pretty solid track record in the postseason, so that adds to it. Yes, the Bengals defense has struggled mightily, but it’s been much better of late and, when Burrow is healthy, it doesn’t need to be good, just adequate. If Jackson and the Ravens offense was playing well or had even played well recently, my answer would be different here.
DeFabo: The Bengals’ offense is a juggernaut, and it’s only getting better now that Burrow is back. But as much as I believe in Burrow, I still can’t trust that defense. A couple slightly better outings doesn’t change what I’ve seen from the Bengals defense over the last three or so years. To me, the Ravens have the most-complete roster. If they get into the playoffs and if Jackson can return to full health, I think they’re still the one AFC North team that could go on a special postseason run.
Dehner Jr.: The Bengals are the only team trending in a positive direction at the moment. The return of Burrow and incremental improvement of the historically bad defense over the last three weeks suggests they could do damage if in the dance. If you could assure me Jackson could return to his 100 percent self this year, I could go with the Ravens. Otherwise the idea of Burrow, Higgins and Chase on the six-game win streak it will realistically take to make it to January would be scary for the rest of a wide-open AFC.
Jackson: The Ravens. Yes, their offensive line stinks. Their defense isn’t exactly trotting Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs out there. But they’d still have Jackson (assuming he’s healthy), Derrick Henry and a bunch of guys who have been in big games before. A lot of them haven’t won those big games and Jackson carries that burden, but even if the Ravens limp in at 9-8 I’ll give them a realistic shot to make the AFC Championship Game in this field.
Steelers fans booed the team’s defensive anthem “Renegade” and chanted “Fire Tomlin” last week, though Pittsburgh isn’t the only AFC North city frustrated by an uninspiring season. What would need to happen over the rest of the season for your city’s fanbase to be satisfied with 2025?
Zrebiec: This was billed as a Super Bowl or bust season in Baltimore, so it would take quite a lot for Ravens fans to be satisfied with this team. Perhaps expectations have been lowered a little bit after the 1-5 start, and some fans would be pacified by an AFC North title and a playoff win or two. However, the lack of extended playoff runs is a touchy subject around these parts, so even that would generate a “same old Ravens” feel. As unlikely as it seems at the moment, a berth in the AFC title game would probably be the floor in terms of what would be acceptable.
DeFabo: This season always has — and always will — be measured by postseason success. When the Steelers signed a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, acquired a cast of aging veterans (including a 27-year-old DK Metcalf, 31-year-old Jalen Ramsey and 30-year-old Jonnu Smith) and re-signed a now 31-year-old T.J. Watt, they were committing to the current window with the hope of winning their first playoff game since Jan. 15, 2017. Even if the Steelers find a way to win the division and sneak into the playoffs, no one will or should be satisfied with another 9-8 or 10-7 season that ends without a playoff win.
Dehner Jr.: The only satisfaction left to gain this year involves Joe Burrow in the playoffs. That will require a Herculean climb from the current six percent chance to make the postseason, but that’s the only way to salvage this mess. Anything else will only amplify those calling for the jobs of Zac Taylor and Duke Tobin.
Jackson: The Browns have had seven full-time head coaches since the Steelers hired Tomlin, just in case anyone is keeping score. As far as what happens in Cleveland, the easy answer would be Shedeur Sanders showing drastic improvement and looking like he could be the long-awaited answer at the game’s most important position. Shoot, Sanders even looking like could provide limited upside and temporary stability would be viewed as a win. I get the feeling that the fan base is simply enraged by the whole Deshaun Watson experiment and the losses the last two years, so maybe the answer is a total house cleaning. But as a big-picture thought, the Browns need Sanders to be good down the stretch.
Time for some picks. Can the Bengals keep hope alive with a win over the Bills? Which team will be atop the division on Sunday evening after the Ravens host the Steelers? And can Shedeur Sanders and the Browns knock off the lowly Titans?
Zrebiec: The Bills are probably the better and more balanced team and they’re at home in December, but I like the Bengals in this one. It might turn out to be a classic case of too little too late, but Cincinnati has the look of a team gathering some momentum, and they’ve outplayed the Bills in recent meetings. I think the Steelers win. Their pass rush will present all sorts of issues for Jackson and a struggling offensive line and it would be so on-brand for Pittsburgh and Tomlin to respond with a win after people started to write the obituaries for their season. I’ll take the Browns in a game that won’t be for the faint-hearted.
DeFabo: This offseason, Steelers defensive coordinator Teryl Austin admitted that Pittsburgh had a “Baltimore problem” last year. In a December matchup that swung the division in the Ravens’ favor, Baltimore rushed for 220 yards. They followed it up in the playoffs with a 299-yard rushing outburst. Considering the Steelers just gave up 249 rushing yards to the Bills and first-round defensive tackle Derrick Harmon is sidelined with a knee injury, it doesn’t appear Pittsburgh is in a much better position to handle Henry and Jackson. I’ll take the Ravens at home. The Bills have the rushing offense capable of playing keep-away from Burrow; give me Buffalo at home. Finally, I like the Browns in an ugly game against Tennessee.
Dehner Jr.: The Browns defense alone might be enough to beat the Titans; give me Cleveland by a touchdown. I have far more belief in the Ravens than the Steelers, even though this rivalry always surprises me. Baltimore wins by two field goals. There are a few lessons I’ve learned covering every snap of Joe Burrow, but none more dependable than to never bet against him as an underdog. He is 13-0-1 against the spread as an underdog of at least three points and 9-5 straight up. His best games as a pro have come in these circumstances. This entire final month of the season feels like we are about to see Underdog Burrow off-leash. Give me the Bengals keeping hope alive, 34-30.
Jackson: I believe it’s 26 of 32 Harbaugh-Tomlin games that have been decided by one score. The caveat this year is that both teams stink, but I think it’ll be close and low-scoring again. I like the Steelers to cover but the Ravens to sneak away with a 16-15 win. I think the Bengals lose a wild one in Western New York, 31-30, and I think the Browns ride Myles Garrett and Quinshon Judkins to a 20-6 win over the hapless Titans. Garrett is 3.5 sacks short of the NFL single-season record, and he goes into Sunday believing he’s going to break it.