It’s pretty simple. In Sunday night, in Kansas City, the Texans can unburden themselves from the weight of several negative trends, while coming full circle, and helping kill a dynasty that they had a huge role in spawning. So let’s start with the negative trends. Night games, prime time, cold weather, Patrick Mahomes — these are all things that have been unkind to the Texans. Win Sunday, and several monkeys climb off your back. 

As for the aforementioned circle of life, it was in the 2019 playoffs (January of 2020, to be exact) where the Texans would cough up a 24-0 lead in the second quarter of a divisional round playoff game to the Chiefs. And I don’t mean cough it up over the remainder of the game. I mean, within a ten minute span, the score went from 24-0 to 28-24, the Chiefs taking a lead into the locker room at the half.

From there, the Chiefs would go on to win three Super Bowls, and participate in five, over the next five years. The Texans would go on to have five head coaches over the next four years. That day was a fork in the road, to say the least. 

Now, here comes Sunday Night Football, with the Texans on a four game winning streak, and the Chiefs sitting at 6-6, ripe to be killed. Indeed, the Texans have a chance to kill the monster that THEY helped create, all the way back in January of 2020. Here are four things to watch for this Sunday night: 

4. Chiefs offensive line issues 

It’s not just the trends in the standings favoring the Texans right now. It’s the medical trends, too. Sure, the Texans have a few guys banged up. However, the Chiefs could be missing three fifths of their starting offensive line. For sure, they will be missing left tackle Josh Simmons, who went on injured reserve after wrist surgery. With the way Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are playing, this is bad news for Patrick Mahomes, who the Texans MUST keep in the pocket. Mahomes is at his most dangerous when he’s allowed to scramble, improvise, and throw on the run. 

3. Woody Marks 

In terms of pure talent, Marks is not a top ten player on the Texans. In terms of his value to the team, though, there may not be five players more valuable, when you consider the depth (or lack thereof, in Marks’ case) behind him on the depth chart. It’s no coincidence that the Texans’ winning ways have begun since making Marks a bigger part of the offense. Now, the rookie out of USC routinely gets at least 15 touches. Nobody in the running back room has the same type of energy and juice as Marks does, which makes his foot injury something worth keeping an eye on.

2. Texans defense Achilles heel 

The Texans defense is, by practically any metric, one of the elite, if not THE best, defenses in the NFL. They allow the least amount of points and yards per game. Can’t do much better than that. However, in terms of red zone defense, the Texans rank 18th, allowing touchdowns 58 percent of the time their opponent gets inside the Texans’ 20 yard line. You can get away with this against opponents who struggle to even get to your 20 yard line. Mahomes, though, will find his way into Texans territory plenty on Sunday. Holding him to three points whenever possible is a big key to a Texans win.

1. C.J. Stroud

This game marks the next step in what can be a journey to a massive pile of riches this offseason. Stroud will be eligible for a contract extension, the kind of contract extension that creates wealth for the next several generations of Strouds. A huge win, in prime time, on the road against this generation’s greatest player would be quite the resume builder. While simultaneously vanquishing the monster we spoke of in the open to this article, Stroud would also be putting the Texans’ percentage chances of making the postseason at 90 percent, according to Pro Football Focus, a massive turnaround from an 0-3 start that appeared to be going nowhere. 

SPREAD: Texans +3.5

PREDICTION: Texans 20, Chiefs 17

SEASON RECORD: 6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS

This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.

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