Who are the NFL experts predicting wins the Jaguars vs. Colts Week 14 AFC South matchup?

The Jacksonville Jaguars return home in Week 14 for a pivotal AFC South matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.

So, who do the NFL experts have winning this matchup?

Both the Jaguars and Colts will enter this game at 8-4 on the season. The Jaguars, however, do hold the current tie-breaker.

The winner of this game takes control of the AFC South division race, holding sole possession of first place. The victor will also have the better division record and hold the head-to-head tie-breaker.

If the Jaguars are going to come away with the win on Sunday, here are the three keys to doing so.

To see how the Jaguars and Colts stack up against one another and where those advantages may lie, you can find that here.

ESPN

Of ESPN’s trio of expert predictors, two are picking the Colts, and one is picking the Jaguars. ESPN’s Football Power Index model gives the Colts a 56% chance of winning this gam,e and in the simulations, they do so by an average of 2.1 points.

NFL.com

A clean sweep. All five members of the NFL.com crew are picking the Jaguars. Here is why Brooke Cersosimo likes Jacksonville:

“The Jaguars seem to have turned a corner, averaging 29.2 points per game since their Week 8 bye, third-most in the NFL in that span. That figure is nearly nine points more per game than they averaged in Weeks 1-7. In contrast, the Colts’ offense has hit a bump in the road.”

CBS Sports

Pete Prisco is picking the Jaguars to win by a score of 21-17.

“The Colts have lost three of four and they now trail the Jaguars in the AFC South race,” wrote Prisco. “The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014, which is hard to believe. The Colts love to run the ball, but the Jaguars are No. 1 in run defense. That will put it on Daniel Jones, who is limited with a broken fibula. I don’t think he can win it , while Trevor Lawrence will make plays against the Sauce Gardner-less defense. Jaguars win it.”

Pro Football Talk

Mike Florio is picking the Colts to win by three, and Chris Simms is taking Jacksonville to win by four.

“The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014,” wrote Florio. “The Colts, after losing three of four, need to change recent history now.”