WOODLAND HILLS, Calif. — The Los Angeles Rams are still the Super Bowl favorites, but now they’re coming off a loss.
For the first time in seven games, the Rams didn’t emerge victorious on Sunday, losing 31-28 to the Carolina Panthers. It’s the kind of loss that doesn’t throw off the season’s trajectory but does highlight some flaws and raises the urgency in the remaining games.
An NFC West title is in sight. So, too, is the NFC’s No. 1 seed. But the Rams aren’t in the pole position for a first-round bye anymore, which makes this final five-game stretch critical. Readers had questions about that race and a couple of position battles.
Questions have been edited for length and clarity.
How confident are you about this team? — RamilyWood
The Rams are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl and have a 56 percent chance of winning the NFC West, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, even after Sunday’s loss to the Panthers. I think that’s a proper perspective, but it’s worth noting that the margins are thin given that the Seattle Seahawks are tied atop the division.
Sunday’s loss stung and exposed a couple of flaws the Rams will have to reckon with down the stretch. But I think it was mostly a reminder of how tight the margins are in this league. The Panthers have a few players capable of making exceptional plays, and they did, from Bryce Young to Tetairoa McMillan to Derrick Brown to Mike Jackson. And if you turn the ball over three times against a team like that, you’re susceptible to losing.
But that doesn’t mean Matthew Stafford is now a three-turnover-a-game player, either. I think the mix of rain and having to answer score for score brought out that regression in a player who at his heart takes some major risks.
Great teams drop a road game to a lesser team sometimes in this sport. I’ve covered a couple of instances from the other side before: In 2018, a Detroit Lions team that would win six games dominated the New England Patriots, and the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl. In 2022, an Indianapolis Colts team that would win just four games upset Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs through this turnover model, and the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl.
The Rams’ secondary was due for regression after the loss of Quentin Lake. In the previous two games, it got to play with early leads at home against aggressive quarterbacks trying to will their teams back, and it fed into a team that played zone coverage and created turnovers. When the Rams get that model going, I think they’ll still be quite effective with this pass rush. But when an opposing offense can dictate terms and not force much, as the Panthers did with a run-heavy approach before unleashing Young, it can become a problem for these aggressive outside cornerbacks who struggle with certain physical matchups.
My belief in this team in a postseason tournament is different if Lake is back, as he plans to be. But these final games are going to matter in determining just how that goes.
It appears that a loss to Seattle or two losses overall would make the Rams a wild-card team. That would mean going to Chicago, Green Bay, Philly or Seattle in the playoffs. Is having the No. 1 seed as big a deal as I think it is? — Tony F.
Two factors really stand out about landing the No. 1 seed, beyond the obvious of one fewer game to play. The first is that the Rams will get to ease Lake back into the defense. He’s targeting a return for the wild-card round, but that’s still a hope as they are more than five weeks away from the target date. We just saw Ahkello Witherspoon look not quite ready in his first game back after a long post-surgery layoff. And, as we’ll get into soon, Lake is critical to how this defense needs to function against good offenses.
The biggest factor is just the comfort level that home settings bring to the Rams’ winning formula on offense. This team has the second-highest-paid offense in the league and the lowest-paid defense. The way it is supposed to separate from teams in the NFC is by having a quarterback so connected to his play caller and so advanced in his understanding of opposing defenses that he can dictate the terms before the snap to create an advantage for a run or pass.
When it all comes together with a running game surging like it is, you see the 30-point outings and turnover-free play that defined the six-game winning streak. But bad weather can add stress to the ball security, and a road crowd can make it harder to gain that pre-snap advantage, as we saw with the delay of game against the Panthers that turned the game on its head.
This team is really hard to beat at SoFi Stadium for all of those reasons. It’ll still be tough to beat on the road because of Stafford’s and Sean McVay’s experience and the Rams’ ability to run the ball to limit the effects of the weather and the crowd. The difference in the No. 1 seed is whether they want to be a contender or the favorite entering the postseason.
Thoughts on Warren McClendon permanently taking over the right tackle job? — Brian T.
McClendon’s growth has been a bright spot this season. The Rams saw some trouble early in the season when offensive line injuries disrupted their short-yardage plans and passing-game rhythm. Losing a cornerstone tackle like Rob Havenstein to injured reserve was a cause for some concern. But, to McClendon’s credit, he has answered the call.
The 2023 fifth-round pick has now made five starts at right tackle, and the best thing you can say about him is he’s been hard to notice. He has yet to be charged with a single sack on 177 pass-blocking snaps, according to Sports Info Solution, and his blown block rate across 276 total plays is 1.4 percent. For context, Lions first-team All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell has a blown block rate of 1.5 percent on a little more than double the volume.
McClendon has settled in nicely at right tackle after spending his first two years trying to learn both sides of the line as a swing tackle. It’s worked in tandem with a steady Alaric Jackson to protect the edges for Stafford, and his ability to string consecutive starts together has also paid off on the Rams’ zone blocking runs. They just had their best rushing performance of the season in Carolina with 152 yards on 7.2 yards per carry.
It could get tricky when Havenstein comes back, because this isn’t just any starter on this team. He’s one of the leaders of the offensive line and the most tenured member of the franchise. He has 13 career playoff starts, which shouldn’t be overlooked when talking about a move to a young and inexperienced player. And though his performance has not been at the level of McClendon’s this season, it’s worth noting that he dealt with the ankle injury that sent him to injured reserve in almost every game. Projecting how the two will measure up when that ankle is healed is more of a challenge.
Given the Rams’ need to answer this spot for the future with Havenstein turning 34 next spring, plus the high cost of tackles in the draft, it would be ideal in some ways to let McClendon take the reins. It just won’t be that simple if Havenstein can get healthy, given the interpersonal dynamics.
Consider the next couple of games an ongoing audition for the permanent role.
Do you think Emmanuel Forbes Jr. will see his snaps drop significantly after the last game with Witherspoon coming back? Could Cobie Durant and Witherspoon be the top two guys on the outside? — Larry G.
Forbes was on a heater entering last Sunday, but his approach as a recovery-speed player who makes plays on the ball with length can have a tricky dial to it, and he was on the wrong end of two long fourth-down scores that helped decide the loss to the Panthers.
His upside is too high not to play at a premium position right now. He’s a 2023 first-round pick who ran a 4.36-second 40-yard dash and has shown playmaking ability with three interceptions and 13 pass deflections in 12 games this season. It’s a riskier style without a safety like Lake to give cover, but that loss is going to affect whoever lines up on the outside.
Durant moved inside for a good amount of last week’s game, and I think that will be the way the Rams get these three on the field for significant snaps. The performance will dictate how the reps shake out, as Los Angeles also has Josh Wallace to play in the nickel. The Rams will have to see what form Witherspoon is in as a 30-year-old cornerback recovering from surgery.