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Just in case the magnitude of this week in Owings Mills weren’t already apparent, Roquan Smith came prepared with a question for his Ravens teammates.
“If someone told you that you control your own destiny in life, or just in anything, what would you give up?” the All-Pro inside linebacker remembered saying Wednesday.
The Ravens (6-6) are five games away from the end of the regular season, and three wins might be enough to hold off the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) and secure a record third straight AFC North title. But the Ravens’ designs on a playoff spot feel tenuous once again.
A blowout loss last week to the Cincinnati Bengals cost the Ravens a shot at seizing control atop the division. Quarterback Lamar Jackson’s lingering ankle injury has muted some optimism for Sunday’s game against the Steelers. Not even the struggles and disorder in Pittsburgh have been enough to sideline concerns about the Ravens’ own glaring issues.
“At the end of the day, it starts with this game right here,” Smith said. “And forget everything from the past. It’s more so about this week, and this week, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers. Obviously, we’re tied right now, so it’s a big matchup, but at the end of the day, it’s still the game of football. We just have to go out and play our brand of football. And if we do that, we’ll like our chances.”
As the Ravens and Steelers meet for the first of two times this season, here’s what to watch in their Week 14 game at M&T Bank Stadium. All stats are courtesy of Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus and the NFL’s Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.
1. Sunday’s game is about as high-leverage as a Week 14 game gets.
Even after their 32-14 loss to the Bengals, the Ravens are solid favorites to win the AFC North, according to The New York Times’ playoff simulator. With a win, their division title odds would rise from about 64% to 76%. With a loss, however, they’d fall to 30%.
The Ravens and Steelers could make up ground in their Week 18 meeting, but every loss adds pressure to their next three weeks. The Ravens still have to face the Bengals and Green Bay Packers on the road and the New England Patriots in Baltimore. The Steelers, meanwhile, get the Miami Dolphins in Pittsburgh and have road games against the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns.
“I think how we come out of this game and how we prepared this week kind of echoes, not only for this game, but for the rest of the season, because we’re basically in playoff football right now,” cornerback Marlon Humphrey said Wednesday. “They say that there’s no must-win game, but this is definitely a must-win game.”
The Ravens can also get help from the Bills on Sunday. With a loss to Buffalo, 4-8 Cincinnati’s slim AFC North title odds would fall from about 6% to 4%. With a win, the Bengals’ odds would rise to 15%.
Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers catches a pass in the end zone over the defense of Cincinnati Bengals cornerback DJ Turner II. The perceived touchdown was called back after a controversial offensive pass interference penalty against Flowers. The Bengals defeated the Ravens 32 -14. (Jerry Jackson/The Banner)
2. Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken said Thursday that he expects Jackson to play Sunday. But Jackson’s ankle injury, if bothersome enough, could be an albatross against the Steelers’ pass rush.
Pressure mitigation has loomed large in years past. In Jackson’s past four losses to Pittsburgh, he’s taken an average of 4.3 sacks and 18 pressures per game, with an overall pressure rate of 43.9%. In Jackson’s three wins in the series as a starter, he’s taken an average of 1.5 sacks and 14.3 pressures per game despite facing a higher overall pressure rate (49.1%).
The Steelers’ pressure rate is a middling 32.3% this season, but they’ve averaged the quickest time to pressure in the NFL (2.54 seconds). Pittsburgh also has generated 40 unblocked pressures this season, the sixth most in the league entering Week 14.
Jackson, who missed practice Thursday after being limited Wednesday, has struggled to turn compromised pockets into positive plays this season. He’s been sacked on 25.5% of his pressured drop-backs, one of the NFL’s highest rates and over seven percentage points higher than his average entering the season.
Steelers coordinator Teryl Austin, whose struggling defense ranks 24th in expected points added per play and 21st in success rate since Week 6, according to analytics site RBSDM.com, said Thursday that the team is preparing as if Jackson will be fully healthy.
“When you go into a stadium with him you presume it’s always 100% Lamar,” Austin told local reporters. “If you underestimate that man, you’re doing that at your own risk. Whether he is running more or whatever, he has the ability to change a game in a heartbeat, so we’ll prepare as such.”
3. The Ravens committed to the run in their two blowout wins over Pittsburgh last season. Will they stick to a ground-and-pound script Sunday?
The Buffalo Bills sure made it look appealing in Week 13. They had an early-down run rate of 66% as they rolled up 249 rushing yards (4.9 per carry) and a touchdown in their 26-7 win Sunday over Pittsburgh. Even with Buffalo’s starting offensive tackles sidelined, running backs James Cook (144 yards) and Ray Davis (62 yards) feasted on “duo” and inside-zone plays, both between-the-tackles run concepts.
“I’ve never seen a team run the same play as much as they ran today and have as much success as they had,” star outside linebacker T.J. Watt told reporters after the game.
Pittsburgh couldn’t stop the Ravens last winter, either. In Week 16, the Ravens had an early-down run rate of 63.3% and averaged 5.8 yards per carry in a 34-17 win, with running back Derrick Henry accounting for 162 of the Ravens’ 220 yards on the ground. In the wild-card round, the Ravens had an even higher early-down run rate (72.3%) and even better rushing average (6.0 yards), with Henry getting 186 of the Ravens’ 299 rushing yards in a 28-14 win.
That success seems far removed now. The Ravens have rushed for over 200 yards just once this season, in their season opener. They had just 18 designed runs on Thanksgiving Day against the Bengals, one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Asked Thursday whether he felt the Ravens ran the ball enough, Monken was succinct: “Well, we didn’t score enough.”
The Steelers will be without injured rookie defensive lineman Derrick Harmon, who was drafted in the first round to help fortify their run defense. Former Ravens inside linebacker Patrick Queen, who left Sunday’s loss with a second-quarter glute injury that precipitated Pittsburgh’s defensive collapse, has also been limited in practice this week.
“We just have to be ready, prepare and be ready for a four-quarter battle,” Henry said Thursday. “I know that the Bills had success, but [the Steelers] still have guys over there that can get after the ball and have some good tacklers, and I think they are No. 1 in turnovers, so we just have to be locked in. That happened, but they still have some guys that can get after it.”
Ravens running back Derrick Henry rushes for a gain in the third quarter of a game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thanksgiving. (Ulysses Muñoz/The Banner)
4. Styles make fights, and Sunday’s game will offer a compelling contrast in personnel tendencies: The Steelers want to play bigger on offense, while the Ravens want to play lighter on defense.
Pittsburgh is the only offense in the last decade to play at least 100 snaps in 13 personnel (one back, three tight ends and one wide receiver) and jumbo personnel (six offensive linemen) in a single season. Only the Los Angeles Rams have used 13 personnel at a higher rate than the Steelers (15.7%) this season.
The Ravens, meanwhile, have played just 20 snaps of base personnel (four defensive backs) since Week 6, their first game with safety Kyle Hamilton playing primarily in the slot and Alohi Gilman and rookie Malaki Starks aligning as deep safeties. They’ve allowed 3 yards per carry on 16 attempts and 41 yards on 3-for-4 passing.
The Ravens have had otherwise mixed results against heavier looks. They’ve given up 3.9 yards per carry against jumbo personnel — though they struggled against the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins — and 68 yards on 6-for-7 passing since Week 6. Against 13 personnel, they’ve allowed 19 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, and they’ve yet to face a drop-back.
The Steelers’ most unique weapon is an offensive lineman-sized tight end, Darnell Washington, who recently told the “St. Brown Podcast” that he weighs 311 pounds. The 6-foot-7 Washington, an imposing blocker and open-field threat, is fourth on the Steelers in both receiving yards (276) and yards after the catch (163).
“I don’t care,” Gilman said Wednesday of Washington’s size. “I mean, I’ve played against him before. Got a lot of respect for him. Great player and size. You guys can see me; I’m not 300 pounds, but I don’t see numbers when I’m out there. I just see bodies. So we’re going to go get after him — everyone who’s out there.”
5. The Steelers’ offense doesn’t generate many explosive pass plays. That’s partly because Rodgers doesn’t seem interested in finding them downfield.
Since Week 8, Rodgers is 0-for-7 on passes of at least 20 air yards. He attempted just one such deep shot per game against the Indianapolis Colts, Bengals and Bills, and had four against the Los Angeles Chargers. (Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow, meanwhile, went 2-for-5 throwing downfield in his Week 13 comeback against the Ravens.)
Overall, Rodgers has averaged 5.8 air yards per attempt and 3.5 air yards per completion this season, both of which are the NFL’s lowest marks among qualified quarterbacks. Top wide receiver D.K. Metcalf’s rate of targets 20-plus yards downfield is just 18.4%, the second lowest of his career.
“Even though they have been throwing the ball short, they do have routes that are going deep,” Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr said Thursday. “They have double moves that they’ve run with multiple guys, specifically Metcalf, but No. 19, Calvin Austin, can run. No. 10, Scotty Miller, can run. And they are calling those plays — downfield plays — and guys have been open. So we know what they’re looking at on film, and we know that they will try to push the ball down the field on us. So we have to be ready. We can’t sit there and just sit on routes. We have to play to the integrity of the defense and play ball.”