The Patriots need to shore up their red-zone execution moving forward.
Mike Vrabel and the Patriots are 11-2 so far this season. (Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff)
December 5, 2025 | 12:56 PM
5 minutes to read
After a quiet trade deadline in Foxborough, Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel preached patience amid a successful start to the 2025 campaign.
“We’re trying to build a program. … I think part of building a program is finding ways to win, building a team, and figuring out where the pieces are that we can continue to add that are going to make sense,” Vrabel said when asked of his team’s unwillingness to parlay draft capital into win-now assets.
Even if Vrabel’s sentiment stands in the first season of what was viewed as a multi-year rebuild, the circumstances have certainly changed in short order.
Entering a long-awaited bye week, the Patriots currently sit atop the NFL with an 11-2 record — one buoyed by a 10-game win streak.
And with the AFC wide-open this fall following the decline of established powers like the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills, the road is there for New England to go on a sustained run in January and February.
As improbable as it might be to envision the 2025 Patriots taking to the field at Levi’s Stadium on Feb. 8, 2026, recent oddsmakers are buying into the hype.
Be it Drake Maye’s emergence as a legitimate MVP candidate or a myriad of other factors, The Athletic currently has New England with a 16 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl — the best odds in the NFL.
ESPN’s Football Power Index currently tabs New England with a 15.3 percent chance of playing in Super Bowl LX, and a 6.2 percent shot of winning the whole thing.
So far, there’s been little to dispel from the notion that New England has the means to make some noise in the coming months.
But if the Patriots want to make good on their promise as a viable Cinderella club this winter, there are a few red flags that Vrabel’s team must solve down the stretch before the true challenges await in the postseason.
Red-zone woes
If the Patriots are going to capitalize against other legitimate contenders in crunch time, they’re going to have to be a lot sharper within the 20-yard line — on both sides of the ball.
For as explosive as New England’s offense has been with Maye at the helm, that same personnel has often failed to deliver knockout punches when presented prime chances to score at the opposition’s doorstep.
So far this season, the Patriots rank just 24th in the NFL in red-zone scoring percentage, scoring touchdowns on just 51.06 percent of their drives that push within 20 yards of the end zone. They’ve been even worse over the last three games (33.3 percent) — headlined by a woeful stretch in Week 12 against Cincinnati where New England ran seven plays from the 1-yard line … and only had three points to show for it.
Maye and Co. might be at their best when it comes to uncorking deep balls down the field and making defenses pay when they dial up blitzes. But in critical moments of games, New England is severely lacking when it comes to delivering goal-to-go situations.
Be it ratcheting up their run game in short-yardage situations or utilizing Maye’s legs more in search of a few more yards, New England can’t keep squandering prime opportunities to build some breathing room.
New England’s red-zone defense has been even worse. Even though the Patriots rank fifth in the league in points allowed per game (18.5), they’ve been downright dreadful when pushed within 20 yards of their own end zone.
Currently, the Patriots rank dead-last in the league in red-zone D — coughing up a touchdown on a whopping 73.08 percent of the time when opponents drive the ball within the 20-yard line.
With the margins being as slim as they are in the postseason, the Patriots can’t afford to both squander chances on offense — and give up TDs with regularity once pushed into the red zone.
A stagnant run game
The Patriots are in good hands with Maye orchestrating the offense this season.
But New England’s red-zone issues and occasionally disjointed drives are often due in large part to a running game that hasn’t been complementary at all to Maye’s playmaking talents.
Despite the occasional home-run play from rookie speedster TreVeyon Henderson, only three teams (Saints, 49ers, and Raiders) are averaging fewer yards per rush attempt than New England’s 3.9 on the year.
A peek under the hood at New England’s rushing metrics doesn’t offer much room for optimism. When it comes to Expected Points Added (EPA) per Rush — which measures how much a running play improves a team’s scoring chances — the Patriots rank 28th with a -0.10 EPA per rush.
Meanwhile, the Patriots rank second overall in EPA per passing play at 0.23.
As far as yards after contract, Henderson ranks 23rd in the league with 416 yards — while Rhamondre Stevenson is 40th overall at 253.
A healthy Stevenson could shift New England’s fortunes in those short-yardage situations that can extend drives or punch the ball into the end zone, but New England has to also steel itself against the fears that his fumbling issues won’t sprout up again during a critical sequence.
An inconsistent pass rush
As showcased by the Texans’ eight-sack game against Josh Allen last month, few things can unravel a star QB and a team’s offensive gameplan like a furious pass-rush — especially on defensive units that don’t need to dial up blitzes to generate that pressure.
Mike Vrabel’s defense plays through the whistle, swarms ball-carriers, and has had a knack for not letting go of the rope over the course of a back-and-forth game.
But they haven’t been the best at blowing up drives by taking down opposing QBs, with only six NFL teams posting fewer sacks than New England (27.0) so far this season.
Even if New England has been able to generate some pressure in the trenches due to the play of linemen like Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, and Khyiris Tonga, the Patriots’ overall pass rush win rate of 36 percent still ranks 21st in the NFL.
A well-deserved bye week should do wonders for high-motor players like Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson — who need to be operating at their best down the stretch to give this defense some more bite.
Winning the turnover battle
It feels like a long time ago that New England coughed up the ball five total times in a frustrating Week 3 loss to the Steelers.
New England has largely buttoned up its turnover-prone ways as the season goes on, especially with Maye limiting the risky throws that plagued him at times during his expected growing pains as a rookie.
Still, the Patriots aren’t exactly winning the turnover battle this season — due in large part to a defense that, while steady, doesn’t exactly swing momentum via interceptions, sacks, or other impactful players that can send an opponent reeling.
New England does have a positive team turnover margin per game this season … but it’s just +0.1 on the season.
That ranks 14th in the NFL this year, while both other established contenders or teams that could be a hard out in the postseason like the Bears (+1.4), Texans (+0.8), and Rams (+0.8) all rank near the top of the NFL.
The Patriots deserve plenty of respect for the strides that they’ve made so far this year. But if this team wants to gut out a few games against fellow contenders in January and February, short-yardage situations and turnovers margins need to improve for Vrabel’s club.
Conor Ryan is a staff writer covering the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox for Boston.com, a role he has held since 2023.
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