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Welcome to one of the biggest sports weekends of the year!
Whether your poison is college football, the NFL, MLS, international soccer or F1, there’s a ton to take in over the next 48 hours.
In the NFL alone, we’ve got several massive matchups on Sunday, including three that could help decide the AFC South, AFC North and NFC North:
— Colts (8-4) at Jaguars (8-4) — 1 p.m., CBS
— Steelers (6-6) at Ravens (6-6) — 1 p.m., CBS
— Bears (9-3) at Packers (8-3-1) — 4:25 p.m., FOX
Our focus here, however, will be on the Sunday Night Football clash between the Texans (7-5) and the Chiefs (6-6).
Before diving into our early thoughts on Texans-Chiefs, check out our picks for all 14 games this weekend, plus the latest episode of All In With Ashley, below.
Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, Early Best Bets
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The matchup: Texans at Chiefs (-3.5) — 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
Betting odds (DK)
– Spread: HOU +3.5 (-115); KC -3.5 (-105)
– Moneyline: HOU +150; KC -180
– Total: 41.5 (over -115; under -112)
The clash between CJ Stroud and Patrick Mahomes is the top headline for most fans. Personally, though, I’m most interested to see how the Kansas City O-line holds up against arguably the best defensive line in the NFL.
Houston’s loaded D-line dominated Buffalo in the trenches the last time we saw the Texans in primetime (on TNF in Week 12), and Will Anderson Jr. and Co. were also outstanding in last Sunday’s 20-16 win over the Colts.
Based on what we’ve seen from Kansas City in recent weeks — remember, the Chiefs have lost three of four, and they needed overtime to beat the Colts in Week 12 — I’d be worried about the Chiefs offense even A) at full strength and/or B) against a much less imposing defense.
This Sunday, Kansas City will be without starting left tackle Josh Simmons, who is on IR. Right guard Trey Smith and right tackle Jawaan Taylor are both listed as questionable, but neither participated in practice on either Wednesday or Thursday. Right now, my hunch, FWIW, is that the Chiefs will be without not only Simmons, but also Smith and Taylor.
Not good! — especially for an offense that was sputtering with a healthy O-line.
On the other side of the football, the Texans did not exactly light up Indianapolis last weekend, but they did enough to win, and they should take a step forward in Stroud’s second game back in action. The Chiefs D has struggled, to say the least, in recent weeks, giving up 400-plus yards to both Buffalo in Week 9 and Dallas on Thanksgiving.
Betting against Patrick Mahomes and Co. with their backs against the wall is risky, but right now, I’m leaning toward Houston winning a low-scoring game.
I wouldn’t recommend placing any big bets until closer to kickoff on Sunday, but right now, I like Houston on the moneyline (+150 at DK) — or the spread, if you’d rather play it safe — and Kansas City to go under its team total of 22.5 (-102).
🔥 Take Of The Week: Texans To Win AFC South
Houston (7-5) enters Week 14 a game behind the Jags and Colts — who are both 8-4 — but I like this team to win that division.
The Texans are 7-2 since their 0-3 start and riding a four-game winning streak into Week 14. Their recent form is even more impressive given who they’ve played over the last nine weeks. The Texans boast wins in that stretch over five teams that are playoff contenders: Baltimore, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Buffalo and Indianapolis. And their losses came by a total of 10 points against the 9-3 Seahawks and the 10-2 Broncos.
It would be an understatement to call this defense a known commodity, and the offense is finally trending in the right direction now that Stroud is back (for now, I’m not willing to say much more than that about this offense …).
The Texans also have a manageable schedule down the stretch, with matchups against the Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers and Colts.
They would likely need to win out if they’re unable to upset the Chiefs on Sunday night, but if that one goes the way I expect it to, the Texans’ odds to win the AFC South will look very different by Monday morning.
Right now, Houston is +290 to win the AFC South at DraftKings and +310 at FanDuel. At minimum, this team is well worth a sprinkle over at FD.
Before I wrap this up, let me be the latest to point out that A) the AFC is wide-open, with five teams listed between +400 and +950 at DK, and B) the Texans are +1100 right now (also at DK).
The four teams with the shortest odds to win the AFC right now include two that Houston has recently beaten (the Bills and the Colts), plus a third that defeated Houston just 18-15 with Davis Mills under center for most of the game on November 2.
Current AFC betting favorite New England (+400 at DK) deserves all the love it’s getting after its 11-2 start. But would it really shock anyone if Houston were able to hang with the Pats in a hypothetical matchup during Drake Maye’s first postseason??
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