When the Colts have the ball
The top line here is the Jaguars’ defense has held opposing teams to 82.4 rushing yards per game, the lowest average in the NFL entering Week 14. Only two teams (the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks) have allowed opponents to score on a lower rate of possessions than the Jaguars (32.6 percent), with Jacksonville’s ability to take the ball away (20 turnovers, third-most) a key factor there.
Let’s start with the Jaguars smothering opposing rushing attacks. A few things here: First, the Jaguars have yet to face a team that’s top 10 in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt – but will on Sunday with the Colts, who despite some issues in the last two weeks still lead the NFL at 5.1 yards per carry.
The Colts will certainly look to bounce back on the ground, though, as in losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans, they collectively averaged 3.8 yards per rush, 20th in the NFL in that span.
“It’s just been one little thing here or there,” offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. “It’s not one run scheme, it’s not one guy making the same mistake. It’s just these little things.
“… We’re trying to do everything we can to make those yards and put JT in great position to go do what he does so well. And the defenses, they’re spending as much time as we are trying to stop that from happening. It’s an ongoing battle.”
From a scheme standpoint, Jaguars defensive coordinator Anthony Campinile leans heavily into zone coverages – and has had plenty of success with those. Jacksonville is one of a dozen teams that’s played zone on 550 or more defensive snaps; on those, they’re second in the NFL in EPA per play (-.150), seventh in success rate (31.5 percent) and seventh in yards per play (5.2).
The Colts’ offense, entering Week 14, has had success attacking zone defenses: They’re first in yards per play (7.2), second in EPA per play (.131) and second in success rate (40.9 percent).
Zooming out, the larger thing for the Colts here is getting back to the success they had on first down prior to the bye week. Avoiding second-and-long situations is important against Jacksonville: The Jaguars are second in EPA per play on second-and-seven or more (-.222); having fewer of those difficult down-and-distances on second down requires efficiency on first down.
The Colts still lead the NFL in success rate on first down (37.6 percent) and are second in EPA per play on first down (.130). But over the last two games that success rate has dipped to 26.2 percent (23rd) and the Colts’ EPA per play on first down has dropped to .022 (17th).