Advantage Buccaneers: Turnover Propensity

Just as he did six weeks ago when the Buccaneers went to New Orleans, Head Coach Todd Bowles stated this week that the winner of the games in this head-to-head series almost always comes down to who wins the turnover. Given the way the season has unfolded for these two teams, that would seem to work in Tampa Bay’s favor. The Buccaneers are tied for second in the NFL in turnover margin at plus-nine, while the Saints are ranked 26th at negative-five. The Bucs’ interception rate on defense is ninth at 2.65%, while the Saints’ offense ranks 19th in that category at 2.35%. New Orleans’ 19 total turnovers is the third-highest mark in the league and the Bucs are tied for sixth with 18 takeaways. In Tampa Bay’s 23-3 win in the Superdome in Week Eight, Tampa Bay won the turnover battle, 4-1, and scored 10 points off those takeaways.

Advantage Saints: Pass Defense

The Saints’ defense is only allowing 187.7 passing yards per game, which ranks seventh in the NFL. In that aforementioned Week Eight game against Tampa Bay, the Saints limited Baker Mayfield to 152 passing yards on 15 of 24 passing and the Bucs as a team to 124 net passing yards thanks to three sacks for 28 yards. While Mayfield continues to play an efficient brand of football, the Bucs’ litany of injuries on offense has kept his crew from putting up some of the gaudy passing numbers they did in 2024. After ranking third in that category last season with 250.4 yards per game and averaging 2.4 touchdown passes per game, the Bucs have seen those numbers slide to 206.3 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game.

X-Factor: Tristan Wirfs’ and Chris Olave’s Available

Tristan Wirfs only got in one limited practice this week, on Friday, due to a new oblique injury and he was listed as questionable for the game on the final injury report. This would not be a great week for the Bucs to be missing their All-Pro left tackle, as the strength of the Saints’ defense is their edge rush trio of Chase Young, Carl Granderson and Cameron Jordan. Similarly, it would be a major blow to the New Orleans offense if their top receiver, Chris Olave, is unable to play due to a back ailment. He was listed as questionable to play on Friday after getting in two limited practices at the end of the week. Olave is second among all wide receivers this season with 111 targets and is the Saints’ leading receiver with 73 receptions for 781 yards and five touchdowns.