ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 27: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs kneels before the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on November 27, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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The NFL’s season of relative parity means a lot of tight races down the stretch, and a lot of teams with plenty of work ahead in order to make the playoffs.
After Thursday night’s Lions win over the Cowboys aided Detroit’s postseason chances while making it tougher for Dallas, here’s how the road to the playoffs shakes out across the NFL – putting a spotlight on the teams with toughest remaining schedules.
Relative Playoff Locks
(per The Athletic’s playoff predictor)
AFC: Patriots (over 99%), Broncos (99%), Bills (92%)
NFC: Rams (97%), Eagles (95%), Seahawks (94%), 49ers (93%), Packers (91%)
The Athletic’s projections state that eight teams already have a 90% or better chance to make the postseason. By default, those are all removed from any conversation around tough roads, since they have more wiggle room to work with as teams with reasonable division leads, nine or more wins, an easier remaining schedule, or in some cases all three.
Penciling in eight teams above leaves six spots remaining for the 11 teams that still have a 20% or better chance to make the field. What does each have to overcome to make a playoff push a reality?
AFCIndianapolis Colts (8-4)
While the Colts’ road gets significantly easier with a road win over the Jaguars this Sunday, their work is still far from over. Indianapolis still has the Seahawks and Texans on the road, plus home dates against the Jaguars and 49ers. According to Tankathon, that’s the NFL’s toughest remaining slate by opponent win percentage, at .672.
Despite the Colts’ surprisingly hot start, they’re a loss to Jacksonville away from seeing playoff odds drop to just 51% (from The Athletic’s current 68%).
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Just as the Colts have two against the Jaguars, that means the Jags have two against the Colts – along with a tough road game at the Broncos. But Jacksonville benefits from contests against the lowly Jets and Titans, too (a combined four wins this season). A victory this weekend against Indy lifts the Jaguars’ already high 83% chances to 96%.
Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
Like the Colts, the Chargers also have one of the toughest remaining schedules. An opposing win percentage of .615 is No. 3 in the league, still playing away at the Chiefs, Cowboys and Broncos – plus home games versus the Eagles and Texans.
The Bolts can help themselves with wins over the Chiefs and Texans, though. Even just beating those two – some of their primary competition for AFC wildcard spots – lifts L.A.’s odds to 99%.
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – NOVEMBER 30: Nico Collins #12 of the Houston Texans steps out of bounds just before the end zone while being pursued by Charvarius Ward #7 of the Indianapolis Colts during the second quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 30, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesHouston Texans (7-5)
The Texans’ 0-3 start to the season is a thing of the past, especially after beating the Colts last week to get within striking distance of winning the AFC South. Now, Houston closes the season with one of the easier schedules – a .450 opponent winning percentage – and games against teams they’re in direct competition against.
Houston beating the Chiefs this weekend boosts their playoff odds from 59% all the way to 84%. They’re also in great shape to win the AFC South with a 4-1 divisional record already and one game left against the Colts to close the season.
Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
Health has derailed a lot of the Ravens’ Super Bowl aspirations this year. And yet, Baltimore is still tied for the lowly AFC North lead at 6-6, and can effectively win the division just by beating the struggling Steelers twice.
A wildcard spot is likely out of the question, though. Baltimore faces an opposing win percentage of .582 the rest of the way (No. 7 overall), hosting Pittsburgh and New England, while traveling to Green Bay, Cincinnati – who beat them last week – and the Steelers.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
The three-time defending AFC champs being here is the biggest example of how much the 2025 NFL season has surprised on multiple fronts. Kansas City’s odds to make the playoffs are just 37% according to The Athletic’s predictor, but jump to 51% should the Chiefs beat Houston on Sunday night. KC’s advantage, though, is games against its wildcard competition (Texans, Chargers), plus “easier” matchups with the Raiders and Titans.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
The Steelers are actually in a slightly better spot than Baltimore. Pittsburgh has just one game against a team currently over .500 (at Lions), plus two against the Ravens. Beating Baltimore just once and taking care of the Browns and Dolphins puts the Steelers’ odds at 84%.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – SEPTEMBER 14: Rome Odunze #15 of the Chicago Bears scores a touchdown in the first quarter against the defense of Jack Campbell #46 of the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on September 14, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesNFCChicago Bears (9-3)
Chicago’s in great position already with nine wins, but faces the NFL’s fourth-hardest remaining schedule, including two dates with the Packers, plus games against the 49ers and Lions. The road is tough, but two wins (Browns and another) likely gets the Bears into the playoff field.
Detroit Lions (8-5)
The Lions are in a tough spot in the NFC North, losing two to Green Bay already, while going 1-3 so far against divisional foes. Playing three of four on the road to close the year also means Detroit probably has to win over either the Rams or Bears to nab a wildcard spot – also assuming they beat more manageable opponents like Minnesota and Pittsburgh.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Tampa has lost four of their last six games, and hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since Oct. 12 (49ers). Still, the Bucs have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league, with a .403 opponent winning percentage and two against their NFC South competitors, the Panthers. Essentially, Tampa Bay’s fate comes down to what happens in those two matchups.
Carolina Panthers (7-6)
The Panthers’ upset win over the Rams vaulted them directly into the NFC South race heading into the bye week. But the issue is the schedule. Carolina has two games against the Buccaneers, and another against the Seahawks. Losing either Bucs game puts them in rough shape no matter what else happens.