On Sunday, December 7, the Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Houston Texans to Arrowhead Stadium in a Week 14 Sunday Night Football showdown. We’re diving into all of the primetime NFL games this season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Texans vs. Chiefs betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 14 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

How To Watch Texans vs. Chiefs

When: Sunday, December 7 at 8:20 pm ET

Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri

Channel: NBC

Texans vs. Chiefs Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, November 28. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Chiefs -180, Texans +150

Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-105), Texans +3.5 (-115)

Total: Over 41.5 (-115), Under 41.5 (-105)

Texans vs. Chiefs Analysis

Since the start of Houston’s four-game winning streak, the Texans have performed as the 15th-best offensive team in football. They have an EPA per play of 0.007 since Week 10, which isn’t all that impressive in the grand scheme of things. However, a league-average offense is all you need when you have the best defense in the NFL (-0.117 EPA per play allowed in 2025). That’s why the Texans are starting to win people over coming into this game, and you’re actually seeing a majority of the tickets on Houston at DraftKings and Circa on our betting splits pages.

The issue here is that the Chiefs genuinely have their backs against the wall. That’s something we’ve been saying for weeks, but a loss here will essentially eliminate Kansas City from the postseason picture. That said, you can probably count on a solid performance out of Patrick Mahomes and Co., especially with this being a cold-weather game in Kansas City. It’s also a pretty good matchup for the Chiefs.

Kansas City is 14th in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate (38%) this year, which might not be anything to write home about. However, an above-average pass rush could look a heck of a lot better against one of the league’s worst offensive lines. The Texans are 28th in the NFL in Pass Block Win Rate (56%), so they could struggle to keep CJ Stroud upright. And he’s a quarterback that desperately needs time in the pocket. Steve Spagnuolo is also a ruthless defensive coordinator, so there’s a chance he’ll be highly aggressive in sending blitzes at Stroud here. The Chiefs also happen to have some good corners to throw on Nico Collins, and Houston doesn’t have many other dangerous pass-catchers. And with the Texans having one of the lousiest running games in the NFL, this just feels like a week in which Houston could struggle to put points on the board.

Offensively, the Chiefs are third in the NFL in EPA per play (0.147). They might have a tough matchup this week, but Mahomes should be able to move the ball through the air.

Realistically, this Kansas City team has a much better statistical profile than you’d think given the record. And it really shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Chiefs comfortably win this game and then handle their business down the stretch.

For what it’s worth, under Andy Reid, the Chiefs win by an average score of 25.0 to 16.9 when playing at home after a road loss. In that same span, they also win by 7.4 when failing to cover in four or five of their last six games. This is a prime bounce-back spot for a team with a championship pedigree.

Texans vs. Chiefs Player Props

LEAN: Kareem Hunt Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Our OptaAI Player Prop Projections have Hunt with an edge of 9.19 yards to the Over on a rushing yard total of 34.5. However, there’s a 32.5-yard total available at FanDuel, giving you a little more value if you’re interested in backing him. OptaAI has Hunt finishing with 43.69 rushing yards, which seems pretty reasonable with him coming off four straight games with at least 49 rushing yards. Of course, Houston’s rushing defense is stellar, so it’ll be harder for him to find holes. But this is a game that will be played in the cold, and it should have a playoff-like feel. That means Kansas City will try to hammer away between the tackles, so I’d expect Hunt’s volume to be pretty strong. That should make up for the Chiefs being without some bodies along the O-Line.

Texans vs. Chiefs Pick

I put in Chiefs -3 at -115 on Monday before my spot with Dustin Swedelson on Cashing Out. At this point, you’re looking at 3.5 at most shops. However, you can definitely buy to -3 at a reasonable price, which is what I’d suggest doing in this one. Kansas City thrives when the weather turns, and this is a game that the team absolutely must have. The Chiefs are also playing a flawed opponent. They should be able to take advantage.

Bet: Chiefs -3 (-115)