The Denver Broncos are 10-2 — on a nine-game winning streak — atop the AFC West, and are the No. 2 seed in the AFC Conference through 13 weeks. That said, the New England Patriots are the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference. So, the Broncos must lock in the final five games of the season to obtain home-field advantage through the postseason. Week 14’s result, meanwhile, will define the Broncos’ path through the playoffs, but Denver is in control of their destiny.

Week 14

Because the Patriots are on a bye in Week 14, the Broncos have to just win, baby, this week vs. the Las Vegas Raiders to obtain the No. 1 seed. If that happens, the hard part is keeping the No. 1 seed through the final four games of the regular season. More on this below.

Heading into Week 13, PFSN Analytics had the Broncos favored in four of their last six games with at least 64% odds. The other two games are coin flips at under 60% odds — but above 50%. Denver downed the Washington Commanders in Week 13. So, now the Broncos are favored in three of their last five games — with two coin flips. The Broncos should defeat the Raiders in Week 14 to obtain the No. 1 seed.

Week 15

Now, the fun begins. The Broncos play the Green Bay Packers in Week 15. The Patriots, meanwhile, play the Buffalo Bills. Denver’s odds to win are a coin flip at 57.3%. For this exercise, though, let’s say Denver loses. That would snap the winning streak at 10. But the Packers aren’t a conference opponent, so the Broncos would remain 7-2 in the conference.

Fresh off a bye in Week 14, we have the Patriots losing to the Bills in Week 15 as well. That puts their conference record at 6-3 to the Broncos’ 7-2 with three games to go. The Patriots have 47.6% odds to win in Week 15, according to PSFN Analytics.

Week 16

The Broncos play the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. And the Patriots play the Baltimore Ravens. With 64% odds to win in Week 16, we have the Broncos getting back on the winning track in Week 16. We have the Ravens downing the Patriots as well. That would put the latter’s conference record at 6-4, to the Broncos’ 7-2 mark with two games to go. The game is a coin flip, with the Patriots’ odds at 56.3%.

Week 17

Denver plays the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17. New England plays the New York Jets. The Broncos have 51.5% odds to defeat the Chiefs a second time in the regular season. Let’s say they lose. That puts the Broncos’ conference record at 7-3, while the Patriots down the Jets and get their conference record to 7-4 with a game to go in the regular season.

Week 18

The Broncos play the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18. The Patriots play the Miami Dolphins. With 65% odds to win, all the Broncos have to do to obtain the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference is down the Chargers. That puts their conference record at 8-3. There’s no way the Patriots can make up the difference. New England needs the Broncos to lose in Week 18 and a win vs. the Dolphins to obtain the No. 1 seed. Indeed, the Broncos are in control of their destiny.

But Denver must defeat the Raiders in Week 14. The game’s result is the difference between the Broncos having the No. 1 seed and the No. 2 seed. Assuming everything else goes to plan, an unexpected loss to the Raiders in Week 14 would make the Broncos’ conference record 7-4 instead of 8-3. This opens the door for the Patriots to get the No. 1 seed with an 8-4 conference record at the end of the regular season. Talk about a game of inches.