After a Week 13 road loss to the Miami Dolphins, the New Orleans Saints remain in the state of Florida this week for a matchup at NFC South rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints enter the game with a woeful 2-10 record, with rookie Tyler Shough about to start his fifth straight game. Tampa Bay counters with a 7-5 record, breaking a three-game losing streak with a win over the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. It was the first win for the Buccaneers since a Week 8 victory over these Saints, a game where Shough saw his first extensive NFL action when replacing Spencer Rattler in the second half.

New Orleans has one of the league’s most inept offenses, ranking 30th in points scored and 26th in total yardage. They square off against a Buccaneers team that is only 22nd in total defense, but 6th in turnovers forced. Where Tampa Bay has been formidable is against the run, an area where New Orleans has been especially putrid.

Buccaneers Run Defense97.4 yards per game (6th)4.2 per carry (15th)12 touchdowns (20th)

As is usually the case, the Buccaneers have been stout against the run. They have allowed three 100-yard rushers, but only three other backs have managed over 60 yards against them. Tampa Bay’s ability to thwart the run starts in the middle, with massive nose tackle Vita Vea closing down inside running lanes. Logan Hall and Greg Gaines are also underrated run defenders up front.

At linebacker, the Buccaneers have two that are in on nearly every play. The ageless Lavonte David and third-year pro SirVocea Dennis each have over 80 tackles, combining for 15 stops for loss. Both are physical in the tackle box with the athleticism to beat runners to the edge to make plays.

Tampa Bay has been a bit vulnerable to off-tackle runs this year. Edge rushers Haason Reddick and Yaya Diaby are both a bit undersized, but Anthony Nelson is bigger and solid against running plays. In the secondary, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is one of the best in the game and is complemented well by Tykee Smith. The two are extremely effective at the line of scrimmage and have combined for 150 stops, including 10 for loss. Jamel Dean is aggressive in run support from his cornerback spot, but the Buccaneers corners have missed some tackles on runners in open space.

Saints Running Game90.7 yards per game (29th)3.6 per carry (30th)3 touchdowns (32nd)

New Orleans has failed to rush for 90 yards in a game in seven of their last eight outings, getting held to less than 60 yards on the ground in three of those contests. Only two teams have averaged fewer yards per attempt, with no team scoring less touchdowns on the ground. We shouldn’t expect this to improve on Sunday, with leading rusher Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle) likely sidelined for the second straight week.

Saints coach Kellen Moore has failed miserably to develop the ground game through either weekly design or play-calling. The Saints rank only 25th in rushing attempts, with Moore often even running the elusive Kamara into the middle of defenses instead of on the edge to get him in space. This also increases reliance on the weakest unit on the team, the interior offensive line. Right guard Cesar Ruiz has been downright awful, while center Luke Fortner and left guard Dillon Radunz have not been much better as replacements for injured starter Erik McCoy and traded starter Trevor Penning.

With Kamara likely out, primary backfield duties fall to rookie Round 6 pick Devin Neal. More of a power runner than Kamara, Neal is actually a decent fit for what Moore apparently wants to do if he gets even a little push inside. Neal fights through first contact well for extra yardage and has an underrated burst to get to the second level. Recent addition Evan Hull was Neal’s backup against the Dolphins last week. Hull doesn’t bring much speed to the table, but proved himself capable of picking up yardage between the tackles. By this point, it’s obvious that Moore doesn’t know how to use Taysom Hill. However, Hill still has the power and enough straight line speed to be a rushing asset with enough touches.

Tyler Shough has flashed the abilities to potentially be a legitimate starting quarterback, but the Saints have done little to support him with a rushing attack. For any hope of upsetting the Buccaneers, New Orleans must reverse this year’s trend and at least provide the threat of the run to maximize Shough’s effectiveness.