For this Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup on 12/7 featuring the Texans vs. Chiefs, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Texans vs. Chiefs
We have a battle between two playoff contenders in the AFC. The loser of this game could be on the outside looking in when it comes to making the postseason. The Texans are 7-5 on the season after winning each of their last 4 games. The offense has been suspect, but their defense is one of the best in the NFL. The Chiefs have struggled to find any momentum this season and sit at 6-6 in the standings. Coach Andy Reid believes his team will win out and find a way into the playoffs.
This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 41.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Friday)
None
Houston Texans Preview
C.J. Stroud was a terrific quarterback in DFS in his rookie season, but the fantasy production has evaporated in the last two seasons. Despite having a decent rushing floor (20+ rushing yards in 6 of 9 games), he has only averaged 15 fantasy points per game this season. Kansas City has long been one of the toughest places to play, and the Chiefs are above the league average in EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Stroud is viable, but I prefer other options at MVP and CPT.
Houston’s 2025 wideout usage:
Nico Collins: 78% route participation, 24% target share, 37% air yards share Jayden Higgins: 50% route participation, 12% target share, 17% air yards share Xavier Hutchinson: 61% route participation, 9% target share, 13% air yards share Dalton Schultz: 72% route participation, 18% target share, 15% air yards share
Nico Collins is more volatile than most WR1s in the NFL, but that has more to do with inconsistent quarterback play than anything on his part. He leads the team in target share, air yards share, and fantasy points per game. The Chiefs haven’t been as tough on WR1s this season, and Collins has topped 20 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. Jayden Higgins has averaged 7 targets over the last 4 games and could benefit if the Chiefs make a concerted effort to shut down Collins.
Xavier Hutchinson, Christian Kirk, and Jaylin Noel will all split reps in three-receiver sets. With so many bodies fighting for snaps, it’s hard to trust any of the cheap receivers. Dalton Schultz has had double-digit fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games and is viable as a contrarian play for tournaments. He’s actually 2nd on the team in target share this season. I will note that the Chiefs have allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Woody Marks has taken over the lead role in Houston’s backfield and has had at least 16 touches in each of the last 4 games. He only played on 53% of the snaps last week, but that was a competitive game throughout. If you think the Chiefs are going to get out to a lead, that will only lead to more snaps for Marks. Nick Chubb is not a great pass-catching running back. While the Chiefs have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to running backs, they are 22nd in EPA against the run. The issue with Marks is that despite the volume, he’s been held under 10 fantasy points in 3 straight games.
The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and this game has a very low total. I likely won’t have any exposure to their defense in DFS, but it’s not the craziest strategy. Kicking points could be more valuable in a low-scoring game, so I don’t mind looking to Ka’imi Fairbairn.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes is having his best fantasy season in quite some time, yet the Chiefs are only 6-6 in the standings. It’s strange how that works. He needs to do more because the other parts of his team aren’t as good as they were in past years. He has topped 20 fantasy points in 9 of 12 games this season. While he deserves consideration at MVP and CPT, this is far from an ideal matchup. The Texans are 1st in both EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Kansas City’s 2025 wideout usage:
Rashee Rice: 69% route participation, 26% target share, 20% air yards share Xavier Worthy: 66% route participation, 16% target share, 27% air yards share Hollywood Brown: 55% route participation, 13% target share, 18% air yards share Travis Kelce: 73% route participation, 18% target share, 16% air yards share
Rashee Rice leads the team with a 26% target share and has started to run more routes downfield in recent weeks. He has quietly scored at least 23 fantasy points in 4 of 6 games this season. It’s not a good matchup (the Texans are 3rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers), but there’s no such thing as a good matchup in this game. Xavier Worthy is known as a big-play receiver, but he’s been held under 12 fantasy points in 8 straight games. He’s a tough click right now.
Hollywood Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton should all see a handful of snaps in this one. None of them projects particularly well, but they are cheap enough that it would only take a couple of catches to land in the optimal lineup. Travis Kelce continues to put up a great fight against Father Time. He will lose eventually, but he has scored at least 15 fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games. He is 2nd on the team in target share this season.
Even with Isiah Pacheco back in the lineup last week, Kareem Hunt played on 67% of the snaps. He’s not particularly efficient (4.0 yards per carry), but the Chiefs trust him, especially down near the goal line. We could see closer to a 50-50 split this week, and the Texans are 5th in both PFF’s grades against the run and EPA against the run. I slightly prefer Hunt here, but he’ll likely need a touchdown to find his way into the optimal lineup.
The Chiefs are playing as home favorites and are facing a mediocre offense at best. If they can get pressure on C.J. Stroud, they could certainly generate some sacks and turnovers. As noted earlier, this is a great spot for kickers with the game having such a low total. Harrison Butker is one of my favorite point-per-dollar options of the slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is not a slate where you are going to feel good about your lineups. Both of these defenses have been great, and the total for this game is set at a paltry 41.5 points. Due to the bad game environment, both defenses and both kickers are viable. I likely won’t have any exposure to Houston’s defense, but two-kicker lineups are more viable in what should be a low-scoring game. I view Patrick Mahomes as a must in all formats, but I don’t feel the same about C.J. Stroud.
Texans vs. Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections Player Team Pos Proj DK Sal DK/$ FD Sal FD/$ Rashee Rice KC WR 19.15 $11,000 1.74 $13,200 1.45 Patrick Mahomes KC QB 19.14 $10,800 1.77 $12,800 1.50 C.J. Stroud HOU QB 15.81 $9,400 1.68 $11,400 1.39 Nico Collins HOU WR 15.77 $9,800 1.61 $12,000 1.31 Travis Kelce KC TE 12.37 $8,800 1.41 $10,400 1.19 Dalton Schultz HOU TE 11.02 $5,400 2.04 $5,800 1.90 Kareem Hunt KC RB 10.26 $7,400 1.39 $9,600 1.07 Woody Marks HOU RB 10.22 $8,400 1.22 $8,800 1.16 Xavier Worthy KC WR 9.96 $6,600 1.51 $8,200 1.21 Jayden Higgins HOU WR 9.11 $5,800 1.57 $7,400 1.23 Ka’imi Fairbairn HOU K 7.97 $4,800 1.66 $6,600 1.21 Harrison Butker KC K 7.77 $5,200 1.49 $6,200 1.25 Chiefs KC DST 7.06 $4,000 1.77 $6,400 1.10 Texans HOU DST 5.86 $3,600 1.63 $6,800 0.86 Nick Chubb HOU RB 4.93 $3,400 1.45 $4,400 1.12 Isiah Pacheco KC RB 4.63 $4,400 1.05 $7,000 0.66 Xavier Hutchinson HOU WR 4.50 $3,000 1.50 $3,200 1.41 Christian Kirk HOU WR 4.47 $3,200 1.40 $4,800 0.93 Jaylin Noel HOU WR 3.60 $1,000 3.60 $4,000 0.90 Brashard Smith KC RB 3.37 $2,400 1.40 $2,600 1.30 Noah Gray KC TE 3.33 $1,800 1.85 $2,000 1.67 Hollywood Brown KC WR 3.25 $5,000 0.65 $5,400 0.60 Cade Stover HOU TE 1.95 $1,600 1.22 $1,800 1.08 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC WR 1.44 $2,000 0.72 $2,400 0.60 Tyquan Thornton KC WR 1.29 $2,800 0.46 $3,600 0.36 Dare Ogunbowale HOU RB 1.22 $400 3.05 $1,400 0.87 Texans vs. Chiefs Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 19-21
C.J. Stroud less than 229.5 passing yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
There are a lot of reasons why I like C.J. Stroud to throw for less than 229.5 passing yards. For starters, this is arguably the worst game environment on the entire Week 14 slate. Both defenses are elite. The Chiefs have allowed the 9th fewest passing yards this season, and they have always been better defensively at home.
Use our Sleeper promo code RGBONUS for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus