A late-season game between division rivals jostling for first place can anchor a typical weekend. There are three of those games this Sunday. So begins a hugely fun stretch of the NFL cycle. Week 14 feels like the first bend of the race’s final lap. It’s the bites of spicy crispy tuna rice before entrées hit the table. It’s the beat switch on Frank Ocean’s “Nights.”

The first December Sunday of 2025 looks like a total heater. It’s also a good time to survey the landscape. With the playoff picture coming together, here’s where things get real and surprises reach permanence.

So, we turn to Paul Rudd eating hot wings.

Hey, Look at Us: On this day four years ago, Paul Rudd appeared on Hot Ones to promote his new Netflix series Living With Yourself. While talking to host Sean Evans, Rudd says “Hey, look at us!” in a way implying “Wow, look how far we’ve come!” pic.twitter.com/xrNE82DEIa

— Know Your Meme (@knowyourmeme) October 17, 2023

Here are the upcoming games that scream: “Hey, look at us, who would’ve thought?!”

All times ET and all game odds via BetMGM.

Week 14 Sunday viewing guide

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GameTimeTVStreaming

Bengals at Bills

1 p.m.

Fox

Steelers at Ravens

1 p.m.

CBS

Colts at Jaguars

1 p.m.

CBS

Bears at Packers

4:25 p.m.

Fox

Texans at Chiefs

8:20 p.m.

NBC

Peacock

In-market CBS and Fox games are free over the air. “Sunday Night Football” is a national broadcast, free over the air on NBC.

One caveat before we pull the guard and run with these rankings. In terms of sheer surprise, our Week 14 leader might be the Minnesota Vikings (4-8) hosting the Washington Commanders (3-9). Minnesota won 14 games last year; Washington marched up to the conference championship game in January. But even if Jayden Daniels returns, we cannot recommend watching that one closely with its long list of injuries and short supply of playoff impact. Rest up, you two.

Now, on to the goods:

5. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) at Buffalo Bills (8-4)

Inconceivable; flabbergasting; any fun word that would sputter out from a cartoon frog. The Bengals winning the AFC North sounds ridiculous. Their quarterback missed half the season. They’re last in scoring defense! And here they are, walking into Week 14 with what The Athletic’s predictive model sees as a 6 percent chance of divisional glory. That’s a small slice of pie, but it’s pie nonetheless. Cincinnati’s final three games are against bad teams (Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns). If its peers keep flailing around .500 and Ja’Marr Chase stays locked in with Joe Burrow, Cincy just might come down with the slipperiest banner ever.

The 2025 Bills have enough surprise and the proper dimensions to host a Bengals-brand entropy party. Listen for the videotape rewind noise and go back to the offseason. If we were told that an AFC East member held pole position on a playoff bye thanks to its MVP-level quarterback, everyone but Pat Patriot and Bill Simmons would assume it was Buffalo. Josh Allen’s crew has won the division five consecutive times. Imagining this Bills team as a wild card is disorienting, like Pinto Ron as Victorian sculpture. Yet even if it doesn’t end up with playoff gravity, any Burrow-Allen duel is worth witnessing.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

It is not surprising to see this particular duo at the AFC North summit. That’s a familiar motif across the past two decades, the purples and yellows popping through snowfall. As we’ve been conditioned, Steelers-Ravens in December feels like an automatic Sunday night schedule flex: winner gets a playoff bye, loser has a road game in the wild-card round. It is so not that this year.

The usual elites are now wheezing from the climb, struggling to maintain a positive scoring differential (minus-4 for Baltimore, minus-8 for Pittsburgh). Per TruMedia, this will be the rivals’ 17th meeting in Week 14 or later since the AFC North was formed in 2002. And it’s the first time that both teams arrive .500 or worse.

Still, there’s some intrigue and charm to be found here. Few human beings summon righteous intensity like Mike Tomlin or John Harbaugh, the two longest-tenured coaches in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a wrist injury, but the Steelers defense has pledged to keep things interesting. They start this week at No. 6 in blitz rate and No. 2 in turnovers forced. They’re also No. 3 in missed tackles, so the chaos goes everywhere. Lamar Jackson (ankle) is wincing through this banged-up season, but the Ravens maintain highlight potential with Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers. Both sides look deeply uncomfortable so low to the ground, but at least they are eye-to-eye, gasping in unison.

3. Houston Texans (7-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)

The Chiefs might be left off the bracket entirely. Are we sure that’s even allowed? Is everyone checking their pocket copy of the league bylaws? K.C. has played in the conference championship or Super Bowl every year since 2018. It hasn’t missed the playoffs since 2014. After melding a dynasty from narrow escapes and clutch heroics, the 2025 Chiefs are flat-out bad in one-score spots. Weird as this sounds, it’s nothing but must-win December games for Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the AFC’s regular rulers. For what it’s worth, their overall work reflects postseason-caliber play: They rank in the top 10 in scoring offense and defense, as well as first in yards per drive through a dozen games.

Sure, the Chiefs are looking around the playoff bubble like Lucille Bluth looking at a plastic menu. But isn’t it all about the company we keep? Houston is a fellow third-place team on the bubble, which sounds far more dignified when considering its 0-3 start and its multiple-week Davis Mills survival project. Like their hosts, the Texans have what it takes to pressure the rest of the playoff field, if they get that far. DeMeco Ryans coaches the No. 1 defense by yards and points allowed, a hybrid beast with bull rushes up front and tentacle coverage in the secondary.

2. Chicago Bears (9-3) at Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)

Which is more surprising? Is it the first-place Bears with a promising quarterback and a hyperspeed strategist? Or is it still the sight of Micah Parsons in green and yellow?

As Chicago approached the season, it looked up at three different forces in the NFC North. Detroit was coming off a conference-best 15-2 record, and it won those games with a rare, joyous swagger. Minnesota went 14-3; though it made a change under center, it retained an elite defense and the all-galaxy Justin Jefferson. Green Bay itself won 11 games in 2024, then added a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

Ben Johnson showed up as a first-time head coach. Caleb Williams was unproven and under a microscope. Most predictions had the Bears finishing third or fourth in the division. Against triple-stacked odds, they’re atop the NFC North and the NFC itself. The Packers must have been confused when they opened their cheese wedge door and saw a Bear, not a Lion, wearing the first-place sash. But novelty will immediately evaporate come kickoff, because century-old beef is unthawing.

1. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)

Two AFC South members with robust records, and neither one plays in Houston? The Texans, back-to-back division winners, are indeed in the mix and fully reheated at 7-5. They still trail Indy and Du(uuuu)val. When did the AFC South become the AFC North? How do we switch it back? Do we want to switch it back?

The Colts have the league’s best offense by points and scoring percentage. They enjoy those things because of (not in spite of) Daniel Jones. At this time last year, Jones was benched, booed and banished from his original NFL home. He seemed closer to deep-cut meme than franchise saver. Meanwhile, the defense is ninth in points against, ninth in red zone efficiency and fifth in sacks. The coordinator, Lou Anarumo, was fired from Cincinnati after “unacceptable” performances wasted the Burrow-to-Chase triple crown.

The Jaguars mirror that 8-4 record with a current three-game win streak. Jacksonville is Liam Coen’s first head-coaching gig. No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter is on injured reserve. Trevor Lawrence, Travon Walker and Brian Thomas Jr. are all amid a rocky season. With that in mind, we’d think the Jags have no business being this fun, save for the swimming pool installed at EverBank Stadium. Then, bam — 25 or more points in all five games since their bye week.

According to TruMedia, Jacksonville has won its last 10 home meetings with the Colts and by an average margin of more than two TDs. The stakes are high this time. Travis Etienne in prowler teal, Jonathan Taylor in speed blue and winner takes control of the division.

Updated Week 14 odds

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