The AFC South has garnered a rather unfavorable reputation over the years as an afterthought among NFL divisions.
Maybe that isn’t so heading into Week 14 this season, when the Indianapolis Colts attempt to defeat the Jaguars in Jacksonville for the first time since 2014. Both teams are 8-4 but can’t get too comfortable with the Houston Texans (and their stingy defense) on their heels. Houston is on the road Sunday night against the Kansas City Chiefs, whose dynasty inches closer to crumbling with another loss.
Another sight not often seen in December — high stakes in a Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers game. The rivals meet with the NFC North lead on the line.
Our NFL writers Zak Keefer, Jeff Howe and Mike Sando discuss all things Week 14 in The Athletic’s latest roundtable.
The Colts have lost their grip on the AFC South, haven’t won in Jacksonville in a decade, and Daniel Jones is dealing with a fibula injury. Can Jonathan Taylor solve all their problems, or is there a bigger issue at play here? Have the Jags earned our trust yet, or do we need to see more?
Keefer: The Colts might be the most tenuous 8-4 team in recent memory. All the momentum they built during their 8-1 start has fizzled in a matter of weeks; suddenly, the talk shows in Indianapolis are bringing up the team’s recent late-season collapses — and there are plenty to choose from. Jones is playing hurt, and the fibula is preventing Shane Steichen from opening up the playbook with his quarterback’s running ability. Steichen had all the answers early. He seems to have none of them lately. If the Colts drop this one in Jacksonville — where they haven’t won since Andrew Luck’s third NFL season — their chances at a playoff spot will dwindle. Just weigh their last four games: at the Seattle Seahawks, vs. the San Francisco 49ers, vs. Jacksonville, at Houston. That’s a brutal stretch.
Howe: Aside from Jones’ injury, the Colts’ slide coincides with a turn in the schedule, and I don’t like their chances of holding it together to make the playoffs. Not only do they have to find their way through that closing gantlet, but they’ve got to withstand the surging Texans and lurking Chiefs. With the Jaguars, I trust their ability to make the playoffs, and I think they’re dangerous enough to beat just about anyone on any given week. But they also make a few mistakes each week to make life harder on themselves than necessary. I’d take the Jags to win the division and the Texans to steal the Colts’ wild-card spot.
Sando: The Jaguars have not earned my trust because their offense is not consistent enough. This Colts team is better than the ones that fell apart in previous seasons, so I’ll (tenuously) take them to win this game at Jacksonville despite the Jones injury. Houston feels like the top team in the AFC South. The Jaguars and Colts need the Chiefs to beat Houston at Arrowhead.
Bears-Packers matters in December for the first time in some years. The Bears seem to be winning “in spite of their passing game.” Do you agree, or is Caleb Williams better than the stats suggest? Stinkers versus the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles seem like a lifetime ago. Has the Packers offense figured it out yet?
Keefer: Williams has improved this year, but his completion percentage (58.1) remains a concern. It ranks 33rd among quarterbacks to start a game this season. The impetus behind the Bears’ stunning revival has been the run game and the defense’s ability to take the football away. I like Green Bay in this one — that receiving group can be lethal when Matt LaFleur calls an aggressive game, as he did last week at the Detroit Lions. Christian Watson’s return has lifted that unit to a different level.
Howe: Ben Johnson has done wonders for Williams, but he’s still very much a work in progress. Johnson has shrunk the field to limit Williams’ reads, allowing him to break from the pocket to create off schedule, so there’s a mix of the best of both worlds. But yeah, the offense is driven by its physicality on the ground, which was Johnson’s intention in the spring. It’s impressive to see it come together. The Packers are figuring it out, but I want to see them handle this upcoming stretch before I’m ready to feel more comfortable with them going into the playoffs. Their offensive injuries, which always seem to follow them, are a concern, too.
Sando: The Bears are definitely winning despite their passing game. That is better than losing because of their passing game, however. Williams’ sack avoidance this season is the difference between those two things. Chicago will stumble some down the stretch because of the schedule, but this is already a solid first season under Ben Johnson. Williams is learning how to play in a structured offense and will have to stick with it to succeed long-term.
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a win at the Pittsburgh Steelers but have been anything but consistent this season. Joe Burrow sounds like he wants to play spoiler down the stretch. Should Buffalo be worried, or did last week’s historic rushing performance against the Steelers convince you the Bills figured something out?
Keefer: Sunday’s win in Pittsburgh was more about the Steelers’ issues — and there are a lot of them — than the Bills’ finding something. Maybe I’m wrong, but Buffalo isn’t good enough to relax down the stretch, as in years past. The defense is leaky against the run, and without a dominant rushing attack, Buffalo remains eminently beatable. Another upset by the Cincinnati Bengals wouldn’t stun me.
Howe: The Bills have been far too inconsistent for two months to think they got right against the reeling Steelers. And the Bills better be worried about the Bengals because Burrow is absolutely capable of dicing them up. The Bills will win a high-scoring one-possession game.
Sando: Buffalo is not what it used to be, no matter what happened in Pittsburgh. The team no longer has a defense that serves as a safety net for those days when the offense is not firing. Buffalo is 0-4 this season and 1-7 over the past two when finishing games with below-average offensive output (negative EPA on that side of the ball). The team had a 14-16 record in those games from 2019 to 2023. The margin for error is smaller as a result.
Running back James Cook powered the Bills past the Steelers last week. Needing to remain in the playoff hunt, Buffalo meets quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Sunday. (Charles LeClaire / Imagn Images)
Texans-Chiefs highlights Sunday night. Which team’s postseason chances are we more confident in right now and why?
Keefer: I’m taking Houston here, and it wasn’t a difficult decision. Have you seen this defense? It’s menacing at all three levels, and Will Anderson Jr. would be getting more Defensive Player of the Year chatter if it wasn’t for Myles Garrett’s historic season. My bet is the Chiefs’ offense won’t be able to move the ball consistently against a Texans defense that has allowed 20 points just twice this season. Houston stays hot. KC’s playoff hopes fade.
Howe: The Texans have five wins against teams that are in the playoff field, which is noteworthy because none of the seven AFC playoff teams has more than two such victories. They’re well tested, and their defense is a consistent strength. The Chiefs looked like they were ready to go on a run entering their Week 9 game against the Bills, but they instead lost three of four. All were high-stakes games, none on a bigger stage than the Thanksgiving showdown in Dallas, and they just haven’t been able to get it done. The Chiefs need far too much help in too short a stretch to feel good about their chances.
Sando: I lean toward Houston but think this game against the Chiefs will be pivotal one way or another. I’m conflicted. Kansas City can win this game at home even with its problems on the offensive line and on defense. I’m reluctant to pick against the Chiefs in this game even though Houston should win. That’s why it’s a tenuous lean toward Houston.
Nick Sirianni backs Kevin Patullo, his offensive coordinator. Eagles fans clearly do not. Is this the right move for Sirianni, or is it time for a change in play calling? Meanwhile, Justin Herbert’s injury history is getting lengthy at this point, but he hasn’t missed many games in his career (four). Should he really try to play through this left hand injury Monday night versus Philadelphia?
Keefer: I picked the Eagles last week, believing in the champs’ ability to find some offensive cohesion against a Bears team I wasn’t totally buying. I was dead wrong. This Philly season is starting to feel a lot like 2023. The vibes aren’t right. The frustration is building. The offensive creativity, let alone cohesion, simply isn’t there. It starts on early downs, where the Eagles consistently find little success. Patullo is an easy scapegoat, but there’s more to this. Maybe Lane Johnson’s eventual return will save them, but I wouldn’t be stunned if the Chargers hand them another loss Monday — assuming Herbert makes it back.
Howe: The offensive line isn’t as dominant as it’s been in past years, and it’s causing issues everywhere else. That’s not on Patullo. Herbert’s injuries are definitely part of his story at this point, but so is playing through them. No one with the Chargers questions his toughness. And as long as Herbert is confident in his ability to protect himself if he falls on his left side, he should play.
Sando: Sirianni, as an offensive coach, would ideally take over play calling the way Dan Campbell did in Detroit. However, his own experience calling plays during his first season as head coach was not successful; taking over those duties now might not produce the desired results. The Eagles, like the Lions, will be looking for a new offensive coordinator next season. As for Herbert, he should play if he’s able to be effective and can protect himself decently. His team’s playoff hopes depend on his availability. The team is counting on him.