Week 14 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our NFL best bets, including a play in Texans-Chiefs

Week 14 of the NFL season began with an entertaining “Thursday Night Football” game in which the Detroit Lions kept their playoff hopes alive by defeating the Dallas Cowboys 44-30 as 3.5-point favorites.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping team of Ed Feng and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 14 of the NFL season.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change.

Feng: The Jets are cursed. The defense has generated two takeaways this season by recovering two of 10 fumbles. New York has zero interceptions despite getting a hand on seven Kirk Cousins passes last week. Even if regression doesn’t happen this week, the Jets play an awful Miami team that my numbers rate as 3.2 points worse than NFL average. Tyrod Taylor has done a respectable job the last two games despite an awful set of receivers without Garrett Wilson.

[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]

My numbers have the Jets as a small favorite at home, and you can find Jets +3 at some books.

Bet: NY Jets +3

Jacob: Back in Week 7 last season, Seattle went to Atlanta and thumped the Falcons 34-14 as a three-point underdog — a result that kicked off a franchise-record 10-game road winning streak.

That streak ended three weeks ago when the Seahawks fell to the Rams in Los Angeles 21-19 (but covered as a 3-point underdog). Seattle immediately returned to the road in Week 12 and held off the lowly Titans 30-24, but never came close to cashing as a 13-point favorite.

The Seahawks are now 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games in enemy territory — but only 3-3 ATS as a road favorite. Don’t let that .500 record scare you off Seattle this week, though.

First off, the Seahawks’ 9-3 ATS record is the best in the NFL; they’re still 7-2 ATS as a favorite this season (including 6-1 ATS when laying 7 points or less); and they’re coming off a 26-0 shellacking of the Vikings.

Perhaps more important than all that: The Falcons, who have dropped six of seven, are a dead team walking. The only bright spot since mid-October? A 24-10 win at the lowly Saints.

The last two teams to visit Atlanta — Miami and Carolina — departed with respective upset wins of 34-10 and 30-27 in overtime.

Bet: Seahawks -7 (-105)

Jacob: So far this season, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has put the pigskin in an opposing player’s hands 11 times. The only quarterbacks with more interceptions in 2025: Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa (both have 14).

This week, Lawrence — who has been picked off in nine of Jacksonville’s 12 games — will be hard-pressed to keep a zero in the interception column against a Colts defense that has hauled in at least one errant pass in nine contests (among 12 INTs in all).

One reason to believe Indianapolis will add to that total Sunday: It has picked Lawrence’s pocket once in each of the last three meetings.

Bet: Lawrence over .5 interceptions (-135)

Jacob: It’s pretty safe to say Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon isn’t treating Jacob Brissett with kid gloves. Over the last four games, the veteran backup quarterback has uncorked 190 passes — including at least 40 in every game.

Brissett also chucked it 44 times in Week 6 at Indianapolis, his first start in place of the injured Kyler Murray.

Odds are that Brissett, who is averaging 43 pass attempts in his seven starts, will have to put the ball in the air a lot Sunday against the heavily favored first-place Rams, who have to be seething after last week’s stunning 31-28 loss at Carolina.

So let’s wager on Brissett to eclipse 37 pass attempts for the sixth time in his last eight outings.

Bet: Jacoby Brissett over 37.5 pass attempts (-125)

Jacob: Prior to their 31-28 Thanksgiving Day loss at Dallas, the Chiefs had stayed under the total in six consecutive games. For the season, Kansas City owns an 8-4 under record, with five games falling shy of 42 combined points

The Houston Texans? They’ve stayed below the closing total in nine of 13 games, including five of six. Final scores in those six contests: 26-15, 18-15, 36-29, 23-19 and 20-16.

Yep, five stayed below 42 points.

For the season, the Texans’ No. 1-ranked scoring defense has held nine opponents under 20 points (and hasn’t surrendered 30 points all year).

Meanwhile, the six visitors to Arrowhead Stadium this season — Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit, Las Vegas, Washington and Indianapolis — have averaged 14 points per contest. And not one topped 20 points against the Chiefs’ sixth-ranked scoring defense.

One more tidbit worth mentioning: The under has cashed in six of the last nine Sunday Night Football games. In all, six of 12 SNF games since Week 2 have failed to clear 41 points.

Bet: Under 41.5

Feng: This Houston pass defense is elite, as they rank first in my adjusted yards per pass attempt. Patrick Mahomes is also elite, even more so with WR Rashee Rice back after missing the first six games of the season. However, my passing yards model based on YPPA predicts 220 yards for Mahomes.

The Chiefs are -3.5, which implies more than even odds that they have a late lead that will reduce pass attempts. This number is particularly good at BetMGM.

Bet: Mahomes under 241.5 passing yards

Week 14 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our NFL best bets, including a play in Texans-Chiefs

Tags: