Logan’s prediction: Stroud needs to scramble.
Dec 5, 2025 • 15:00 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Imagn Images. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks to pass.
C.J. Stroud leads the Houston Texans into Arrowhead Stadium, where a desperate Kansas City Chiefs team awaits on Sunday Night Football.
Stroud knows all about the crazy crowd in Kansas City, having taken on the Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last January. And with both teams trying to fight their way back into the tournament, SNF will have a postseason atmosphere at Arrowhead.
Stroud is the focus of my Texans vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, December 7.
Texans vs Chiefs prediction
Texans vs Chiefs Best bet: C.J. Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards (-114)
C.J. Stroud probably still has nightmares about that last meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Houston Texans‘ quarterback was pressured on more than 51% of his dropbacks and was sacked eight times in the 23-14 loss to the Chiefs last January.
He’ll face similar pressure from Steve Spagnuolo this Sunday, with the Kansas City defensive coordinator blitzing at the third-highest rate in the NFL. And while the Texans’ offensive line is improved from last year (not that tough to do, considering how bad they were), Stroud will feel that heat on a chilly night in Chiefs Kingdom.
That constant hounding forced Stroud to take off with the football six times for 42 rushing yards in that postseason matchup. In his first seven games of 2025, Stroud was also doing damage with his legs. He rushed four or more times in five of those games, amassing at least 22 rushing yards in all but one of those seven showings.
Then, early into the second quarter versus the Denver Broncos in Week 9, Stroud took off down the middle of the field and bashed his helmet off the turf as he was tackled sliding. He would suffer a concussion that would take him out for the next three games before returning to action in the win over the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.Â
Stroud and offensive coordinator Nick Caley were cautious in that game, with no designed runs for the QB, and Stroud was hesitant to take off when the pocket collapsed. Now, with another week to recover and Kansas City presenting a much more aggressive pressure than the Colts, the Texans’ QB will need to use his legs on Sunday night.
The Chiefs’ pass rush has prompted rival QBs to turn into runners at a high rate, with KC seeing the fourth highest rushing attempts from the position and allowing the eighth most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
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Player projections for Stroud all sit above his current rushing bar of 12.5 yards, with most models at 16-plus and a ceiling of 23 yards.
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Texans vs Chiefs SNF same-game parlay
Houston’s defense is elite and did a great job bottling up Mahomes in last year’s playoff game. This feels like a field goal game, so I’ll take the half-point hook on Houston.
Stroud is over his concussion and will be forced to keep plays alive with his legs against the Chiefs’ aggressive pass rush.
Jayden Higgins’ targets are climbing with at least five in four straight games, and the 6-foot-4 WR has four TDs on the year — two in the past four weeks.
Texans vs Chiefs SGP
Texans +3.5
C.J. Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards
Jayden Higgins anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Stroud delivers
The Chiefs lack explosive plays and drives die in the red zone. That’s not what you want versus the Texans’ defense.
Stroud rushed for 42 yards against Kansas City in last year’s Divisional Round game.
Higgins has three touchdowns from seven red-zone targets.
Rashee Rice is a zone buster and scored two touchdowns last Thursday.
Texans vs Chiefs SGP
Texans +3.5
C.J. Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards
Jayden Higgins anytime touchdown
Rashee Rice anytime touchdown
Texans vs Chiefs odds
Spread: Houston +3.5 | Kansas City -3.5
Moneyline: Houston +155 | Kansas City -185
Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Texans vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Houston is 6-15 Over/Under in its last 21 games overall, including 3-8-1 O/U this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Texans vs Chiefs
Location
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Date
Sunday, December 7, 2025
Kickoff
8:20 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
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