Parker’s prediction: Lamar Jackson will help the Ravens take control of the AFC North with a win over the Steelers.
Dec 5, 2025 • 11:00 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Imagn Images. Lamar Jackson rushes the ball against the Bengals.
First place in the AFC North is up for grabs with the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium this Sunday.
My Steelers vs. Ravens predictions and top NFL picks are calling for Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson to cover the number and take over the top spot in the division in Week 14.
Steelers vs Ravens prediction
Steelers vs Ravens Best bet: Ravens -5.5 (-112)
Top billing in the AFC North is up for grabs in Week 14, and even with the Baltimore Ravens slipping up against the Bengals on Thanksgiving, I like the home team at M&T Bank Stadium.
Before the Week 13 loss, the Ravens had won five straight with an average margin of victory of 12.8 points, and Baltimore ranked eighth in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA during the heater.
It’s just the opposite on the opposite sideline, too.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have dropped five of their past seven, including losing 26-7 at home to the Bills last week. Pittsburgh also ranked lower in both offensive (18th) and defensive (16th) DVOA during the seven-game stretch.
Pittsburgh has also only covered the number twice during the seven-game skid, and the Steelers have also only covered once in their past eight road games.
I also have no confidence in Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes since Week 8, and the 40-year-old veteran finished Week 13 with the lowest EPA + CPOE composite rating of all QBs in Week 13.
Finally, this sets up as a bounceback spot for the Baltimore offense. Pittsburgh has surrendered the ninth-highest EPA per play and an average of 26.0 points per game during the highlighted seven-game slide.
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Steelers vs Ravens same-game parlay
Lamar Jackson hasn’t had a rushing yards total this low once since the beginning of the 2024 season. While his recent numbers on the ground don’t jump off the page, he’s still topped this number in two of his past four games and has averaged 6.2 carries per game since returning from injury in Week 9.
Jackson is nursing an ankle injury, but with Pittsburgh blitzing at the sixth-highest rate in the league, I’m expecting multiple scrambles for chunk gains. Plus, coming off the mini-bye with a Thursday game in Week 13 is a bonus.
The Steelers have also allowed four rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, including Josh Allen last week. Jackson hasn’t rushed one in since Week 1, either, so we’re landing a long number on his touchdown prop (+270).
Steelers vs Ravens SGP
Ravens -5.5
Lamar Jackson Over 25.5 rushing yards
Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Lamar All Day
The Steelers have allowed 13 passing touchdowns during the noted 2-5 stretch, so Jackson and the slumping Baltimore aerial attack are set for takeoff Sunday afternoon.
Steelers vs Ravens SGP
Ravens -5.5
Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Lamar Jackson Over 25.5 rushing yards
Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown
Steelers vs Ravens odds
Spread: Steelers +6 | Ravens -6
Moneyline: Steelers +225 | Ravens -275
Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Steelers vs Ravens trend to know
The Steelers have an active 2-5 record against the spread, and they’ve also only covered the number in two of their past eight road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Ravens.
How to watch Steelers vs Ravens
Location
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Date
Sunday, December 7, 2025
Kickoff
1:00 p.m. ET
TV
CBS
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