For the second time this season, the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers square off in an NFC South matchup. These teams met back in Week 8, with the Buccaneers taking a convincing 23-3 win in New Orleans. The Saints enter this one with a 2-10 record, tied for the third worst winning percentage in the NFL. Tampa Bay leads the NFC South with a 7-5 mark, with last week’s win over Arizona breaking a three-game losing streak. Their previous victory had been against the Saints.

Tampa Bay was ravaged by injuries over the first half of the season. It’s mostly what prompted their losing streak. The Buccaneers are starting to get healthy, but will still be without a few vital pieces for an offense that ranks 21st in total yards and 17th in points scored. Quarterback Baker Mayfield and his receivers garnered all the early headlines, but the Buccaneers ability to run the football has carried greater importance. New Orleans counters with a defense that is 12th overall but has had bigger issues against running games. It’s that aspect of this matchup where we examine here.

Buccaneers Running Game109.8 yards per game (21st)4.1 per carry (21st)10 touchdowns (18th)

A notable absence for the Bucs for all of October and all but one game in November was Bucky Irving, an 1,100-yard rushers and year ago. In five games this season, Irving has 298 rushing yards. The Buccaneers have a 4-1 record in games Irving has played, averaging 120 rushing yards in those contests. Without Irving, Tampa Bay is just 3-5 with a rushing average of 89.6 rushing yards per game.

When Irving was sidelined, Rachaad White assumed primary backfield responsibilities and is the team’s leading rusher with 421 yards and 4 scores. White led Tampa Bay with 990 rushing yards back in 2023, but has only two games of over 55 yards on the ground this year. Sean Tucker does little against the rest of the NFL, but looks like a Hall of Famer when he plays the Saints. In four career games against New Orleans, Tucker has 194 rushing yards, 56 more as a receiver, and 4 touchdowns. Tucker has played 36 games against the rest of the league over his three years and has 414 rushing yards with 4 total scores.

Quietly, the Buccaneers have put together a physical offensive line. However, it is a line that could be shorthanded against New Orleans. Right tackle Luke Goedeke and left guard Ben Bredeson are back after early season injuries. However, right tackle Cody Mauch is on injured reserve and left tackle Tristan Wirfs has been dealing with an oblique injury that caused him to sit out of practice most of the week.

Saints Run Defense126.9 yards per game (21st)4.1 per carry (13th)10 touchdowns (12th)

New Orleans has held five opponents to under 90 yards on the ground. In their other seven games, they’ve been gashed for an average of over 160 rushing yards. These wild swings are caused because the Saints haven’t been able to consistently control the trenches. They have no big-bodied presence in the middle. That has allowed opponents to double-team ends Bryan Bresee and Nathan Shepherd, who are more slashers than bullies.

A lack of a formidable interior wall at times has limited the effectiveness of the Saints linebackers to a degree. Still, Demario Davis has had another standout year with 111 tackles and continuing to use his elite instincts to make plays. Pete Werner is a good downhill run defender in the tackle box, but opponents make him look foolish when they can attack him on the edge or in space. Physical rookie Danny Stutsman has finally started to get more playing time and is a quality future starter.

On the edge, Cameron Jordan remains a solid run defender and Chase Young has played better against the run than at any other point in his career. The New Orleans defensive backs are aggressive against the run, but have been guilty of spotty tackling in the open field. Safety Justin Reid (knee) will miss this game, leaving more importance on the abilities of Alontae Taylor and rookie Jonas Sanker to make plays at the line of scrimmage.

In their first meeting against Tampa Bay, the Saints had one physical goal-line stand and very nearly another one to keep them in the game for awhile. New Orleans will need to duplicate that kind of physicality on Sunday against a Buccaneers attack that didn’t have Bucky Irving in their first meeting. For the Saints to even keep this rematch close, they’ll have to control the line of scrimmage by setting a physical tone and prevent Tampa Bay from establishing a balanced attack.