Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 14’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts.

Jacksonville gets playoff stakes without the branding on Sunday. Two 8-4 teams walk in knowing first place in the AFC South sits on the table, and only one walks out controlling it. The Colts arrive leaking confidence after consecutive one-score losses, their early-season fireworks dulled by injuries and inconsistency. The Jaguars come home riding four wins in five games, their defense finally matching the ambition around Trevor Lawrence. Duval has seen false dawns before, but this matchup feels like a crucible to test whether this surge is real. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 14’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

On paper, Indianapolis still owns the prettier offensive statsheet: 4,505 total yards, 375.4 per game, 7.5 yards per pass, 5.1 per rush, 41 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. That unit has quietly regressed, though, from 381.2 yards and +13.17 offensive expected points added per game early to 355.8 yards and barely above water at +0.42 EPA over Weeks 9 through 13. Daniel Jones has 979 yards, six touchdown passes and four interceptions in his last five, but his completion rate dropped from 70.6% to 61.9%, and the fractured fibula has stripped his legs from the toolkit. Jacksonville’s defense has gone the other way, tightening from 348.2 yards allowed and -4.0 defensive EPA early to 278.4 yards and -10.21 recently, with 16 sacks across the last five. Josh Hines-Allen has 5.5 sacks in that window, the front has cut opponents to 3.9 yards per rush, and a unit that felt lightweight in September now carries the game’s heaviest swing.

Jacksonville’s offense has not always been pristine, yet it’s noisily trending toward the version that scared people—and overexcited this fantasy analyst—in August. Lawrence has 1,016 yards, seven touchdowns and six picks over his last five, but the more important note is usage: multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games, at least 24 rushing yards in four of five, and a playcaller willing to keep the ball in his hands. Jakobi Meyers has instantly become his favorite vet, catching 18 of 21 targets for 245 yards and two scores over that span, including recent target shares of 27, 20 and 22%. Tight end Brenton Strange brings 27 catches for 322 yards and a touchdown on 32 targets in his full games, 57 yards per game that would sit near the top of the position. That short-area pairing attacks exactly where the Colts are softest, with Indianapolis allowing the most receiving yards in the league on throws within 10 air yards and the second-most yards per game to tight ends.

Fantasywise, Brian Thomas Jr. has slogged to WR 46 with one touchdown and six drops in nine games, his target share shrinking even as he keeps a near full-time route role. He is still Jacksonville’s only real vertical stressor, but right now Meyers and Strange own the bankable volume while Thomas walks in as a boom-or-bust accent piece rather than a centerpiece.

The Colts still have real counterpunches. Jonathan Taylor has 432 rushing yards, three scores and 98 receiving yards over his last five, and Jacksonville has long invited targets to running backs. Alec Pierce brings 303 yards and two touchdowns on 27 recent targets, living as the vertical stressor, while Michael Pittman quietly carries a co-alpha workload. Rookie Laiatu Latu has 3.5 sacks and an interception over five games, helping produce 35 total sacks and a defensive EPA of 28.82. Season-long numbers also say the Colts offense is more efficient than Jacksonville’s group, which sits at 326.0 yards per game, 6.2 yards per pass, 4.2 per rush and a negative offensive EPA. That’s precisely the frame supporting Indianapolis as the favorite.

Colts vs. Jaguars pick, best bet

Once you zoom into the situations that decide tight games, that frame tilts. Over recent weeks the Jaguars have converted 68.2% of red-zone trips into touchdowns; the Colts sit at 53.3%. Jacksonville moves the chains on 39.3% of third downs in that stretch; Indianapolis lags at 32.7%. The Jags defense has stacked 16 sacks against three interceptions and three fumble recoveries, creating more pressure events than the Colts while allowing nearly 70 fewer yards per game than it did early in the season. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has watched its explosive profile flatten, logging three games under 300 yards in its last four and posting negative offensive EPA in two of them. Even Taylor’s path to a takeover runs directly into Jacksonville’s strength against man and gap runs, where it allows 3.37 yards per carry, pushing his damage toward checkdowns rather than haymakers.

The market still leans on those season-long Colts numbers, hanging Indianapolis around -1.5 with Jacksonville sitting at +110 on the moneyline and a total of 46.5. That price treats the matchup like a coin flip on a neutral field while handing the Jags a small home discount. Recent form, situational edges and health suggest something closer to Jacksonville laying a point than catching one. A run-heavy Colts script that protects Jones lowers variance and invites the Jags’ surging red-zone efficiency to matter more. If Lawrence maintains his dual-threat usage and the Meyers–Strange axis keeps exploiting soft underneath space, Jacksonville should match Taylor’s volume with sustained drives and finish those drives better.

I expect the Jaguars to lean into quick-game timing routes, early-down play-action and sprint-outs that punish Indianapolis for its single-high, man-heavy tendencies, using Meyers to bully leverage underneath while Strange works seams against linebackers forced to help on Travis Etienne. The Colts should respond with Taylor and screens, trying to keep Hines-Allen and that front from living in the backfield, but their recent third-down issues invite more stalled possessions and field goals than their talent suggests. In a game where both teams know the division runs through this afternoon, I trust the rising defense, the healthier quarterback and the better finishing profile more than the fading early-season flames.

Final score: Jaguars 24, Colts 20.

Best bet: Jaguars (+110) vs. Colts

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For a prop lean, Jonathan Taylor over 17.5 receiving yards at -110. Taylor has 98 receiving yards over his last five games, right around 19.6 per, and that’s with the Colts still trying to be a run-first, under-center group. Jacksonville is built to squeeze that identity, holding man and gap runs to 3.37 yards per carry and 3.9 overall, but they have long leaked production to backs in the passing game, ranking near the top of the league in receiving yards allowed to the position while sitting near the bottom in rushing yards allowed. With Daniel Jones playing through a fractured fibula and the Colts’ offensive EPA cratering from plus-13.17 early to plus-0.42 in recent weeks, the cleanest way for Shane Steichen to survive pressure and stay on schedule is a heavy screen and checkdown menu to Taylor. If we are already expecting Jacksonville to win outright, that tilts game script toward more two-minute drives and long-yardage situations, which are exactly the snaps that turn Taylor from early-down hammer into outlet valve

Best prop lean: Jonathan Taylor o17.5 receiving yards (-110)

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