Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 14’s game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

December brings Ravens–Steelers back to that familiar Baltimore hum: deep shots swallowed by night sky, hits echoing off the river. Both teams sit 6-6, their seasons teetering between wild-card relevance and wasted talent. Pittsburgh arrives with Aaron Rodgers and scars from a 26-7 loss in Buffalo; Baltimore walks in fresh off a 32-14 collapse against Cincinnati that re-opened every Lamar Jackson question. Nobody here trusts their offense right now. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 14’s game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The numbers say these are name-brand offenses playing like under teams. Baltimore averages 317.3 yards per game but sits at -0.028 EPA per play, with -0.088 through the air and only the run game in positive territory at +0.037. Lamar’s season line looks fine on the surface—1,841 yards, 15 touchdowns, four picks, 264 rushing yards—but his last five games scream slump: fantasy QB finishes of 9, 17, 29, 25 and 24; 31 carries for 98 yards; a 3.7% passing touchdown rate and three straight games without accounting for a score. Their red-zone profile is brutal, just 20 touchdowns on 138 trips, a 14.5% conversion rate that drags every drive back to earth. Pittsburgh is hardly better. The Steelers sit at 281.7 yards per game with -0.020 EPA per play, -0.025 on the ground despite Jaylen Warren’s 867 total yards, and their own red-zone mark is only 21.1% on 109 trips. Rodgers’ 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions look tidy, but this is an operation that has produced 1,126 rushing yards all year and lives in third-and-medium more than the end zone.

Baltimore’s rushing edge is real, but it still favors the under. Derrick Henry has 931 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 197 carries, at least 71 scrimmage yards in seven straight, and his usage climbs to 18.3 carries in Ravens wins. Pittsburgh has allowed at least 99 rushing yards in four straight, which invites Baltimore to lean deeper into Henry and bleed clock. The rest of the passing tree is efficient but not explosive right now. Zay Flowers owns 60 catches for 767 yards and 1 score on 84 targets, with at least a 20% target share in 11 of 12 games, yet he has not scored since Week 1. Mark Andrews brings 37 catches for 332 yards and 5 touchdowns and is the one true red-zone closer, but the structure has not consistently found him when the field compresses. On the other sideline, Warren and Kenneth Gainwell split a backfield that has produced negative rush EPA, and DK Metcalf’s 605 yards and 5 touchdowns hide five straight games under 50 receiving yards. Against a Ravens defense that plays man on more than one-third of snaps and holds outside receivers to 1.71 yards per route, that does not scream breakout.

The defenses, meanwhile, are built to make drives feel long and joyless. Baltimore allows 2,924 passing yards and 1,421 rushing yards on the year with a 37.1% third-down rate and -0.051 rush EPA allowed. Pittsburgh counters with 3,177 passing yards and 1,412 rushing yards allowed, a 44.0% third-down rate and +0.016 EPA per play, but they bring 34 sacks and 16 forced fumbles that tend to end promising series in smoke. Both secondaries are more bend than break: the Ravens have given up yardage but only 30 offensive touchdowns; the Steelers bleed underneath throws, allowing 114.0 receiving yards per game on passes with fewer than 10 air yards, but tighten in deeper zones. Those shapes, paired with two offenses already underwater in EPA, point straight at field goals, stalled red-zone trips and punting from plus territory.

Steelers vs. Ravens pick, best bet

You can absolutely script a Lamar statement game. Pittsburgh’s heavy single-high and man rates fit his best coverage splits, and last year he totaled 414 passing yards, four touchdowns, two picks and 68 rushing yards across two meetings. Positive regression probably lifts Baltimore’s red-zone rate from catastrophic toward merely bad, and Rodgers is too good to live at -0.020 EPA forever. The question is not whether both pass games can look better than last week. It is whether they can collectively clear 42.5 in a division game where both coaches know their defenses are the more trustworthy side of the ball. With success rates nearly identical—42.6% for the Ravens, 42.9% for the Steelers—and both run games pointing the clock forward, the path to a mid-30s total is wider than the path to a shootout.

The market hangs Baltimore -6 with a total of 42.5, implying something like 24-18. Given Lamar’s current form, the Ravens’ 14.5% red-zone clip and Pittsburgh’s own 21.1% conversion rate, that feels a shade high. Henry’s advantage over this run defense and Baltimore’s third-down edge should tilt the game their way, but those same traits shorten possessions and reduce total plays. Rodgers, Warren and Metcalf can move the ball between the 20s, yet a ground game in the red and a pass rush that forces early throws keeps their ceiling capped.

I see another Ravens–Steelers entry that feels tense and physical more than explosive. We go under.

Final score: Ravens 20, Steelers 17.

Best bet: Ravens vs. Steelers u42.5 total points (-105)

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For a prop lean, Zay Flowers over 58.5 receiving yards at -110 fits exactly how this game should breathe. He owns 60 catches for 767 yards on 84 targets, with at least a 20% target share in eleven of twelve games and 64 or more scrimmage yards in nine of eleven. Pittsburgh is the right kind of opponent for that role: the Steelers allow the fourth-most receiving yards per game to wideouts at 121.8 and the second-most yards on throws under ten air yards at 114.0, and their single-high, man-heavy structure funnels work to short and intermediate separators. Flowers averages 2.15 yards per route run and a 0.26 targets-per-route rate against man, and Pittsburgh has been top five in man usage while also allowing the highest rate of middle-of-field passes. Opponents are getting the ball out in 2.44 seconds on average against this rush, fastest in the league, and Lamar ranks near the top of the board in quick-game EPA while lagging badly on extended plays. That is perfect for a volume hog who lives on option routes, crossers and glance posts.

Best prop lean: Zay Flowers o58.5 total receiving yards (-110)

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