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The Las Vegas Raiders‘ bet on Geno Smith hasn’t paid off, and there’s a real chance his stint with the team ends after just one season. That situation would likely push the Silver and Black back into the quarterback market once this offseason arrives.
At 2-10, the Raiders are trending toward a top-three slot in the 2026 NFL Draft. Right now, they sit at No. 4 behind the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, and New Orleans Saints. Of those teams, only the Saints appear set to pursue a quarterback, meaning they’d be a competitor for Indiana Hoosiers signal-caller Fernando Mendoza.
Mendoza and Indiana pulled off the upset in the Big 10 Championship Game against Ohio State, winning the contest 13-10 on December 6. Moreover, he’ll have an opportunity to boost his draft stock even more in the College Football Playoff.
If the Raiders do get the opportunity to draft Mendoza in the offseason, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah shared his analysis, which might have Raiders fans hoping the team loses out in its final five games of the season to secure the young quarterback.
“Mendoza has a really nice blend of poise and playmaking,” Jeremiah wrote on X. “He’s been able to slow things down in big moments this year. Those traits translate very well to the next level. That was a great game for scouts to watch on both sides of the ball.”
The Raiders have a chance to lose all of their games left on the schedule, as four out of the last five games are against opponents in the playoff hunt. Only the Giants are the team on their schedule that are out of postseason contention.
Arch Manning Unlikely to Leave Texas Longhorns
While Mendoza could be the top quarterback in this class, he could drop to No. 2. Many teams probably expected Texas Longhorns signal-caller Arch Manning to declare for the 2026 draft. However, it seems he’ll return to Austin unless he changes his mind.
Recently, The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen shared the percentage he sees Manning declaring for the NFL Draft this offseason.
“I would say it’s less than five percent that he comes out just because he doesn’t, you know, he doesn’t need to come out,” Nguyen said on the December 5 edition of the “Just Win Podcast.” “He doesn’t need the money, and the NIL money is so good right now for all these quarterbacks that they’re more willing to stay in school.
“I think he only has one year of experience. Peyton [Manning] and Eli [Manning] are talking to him about the importance of getting some games under his belt for his future development. So I don’t see him coming out.”
Should the Raiders Use a High Pick on Fernando Mendoza?
With Manning expected to be off the board, the Raiders face a real decision about spending a premium pick on a quarterback. Mendoza is the next name near the top of many draft lists, but in a class short on depth, his value at that spot is up for debate. NFL color commentator Charles Davis isn’t convinced he’s worth that kind of investment.
“No, I do not, “ Davis told Locked on Raiders host Q Myers, who asked if he has a quarterback who could go at the top of the 2026 draft. “I feel like we hear that every year, but this year was supposed to be a particular bonanza.
“And when preseason came, it was like a wealth of riches. Right now, where we’re sitting, the Indiana kid, Mendoza, is probably top of the food chain, but I don’t know that he’s top of the food chain. Like, ‘Hey, everybody’s got to go get him in the top five.’
“Right now, as we sit here, and there’s a long way to go, this could all change, and it always does… But we’re not going as we sit here today. This is not a day where we’re going to say, ‘Hey, all you quarterbacks go get fitted for a suit. You’re going in the top 10. ‘ Because that’s not happening.”
Eduardo Razo Eduardo Razo is a sports journalist covering the NFL for Heavy.com. He previously covered the league for NBC Sports Washington and NBC Sports Bay Area & California, and has contributed as a freelance writer for The Sporting News. He also served as an editor for Athlon Sports and Heavy Sports focusing on MLB and the NFL. More about Eduardo Razo
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