The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs square off on Sunday Night Football in Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season with both teams on the outside of the playoff picture in the AFC. The Texans have a shot at winning the AFC South and are in contention for a wild card berth while the Chiefs have slipped to 6-6 and need a massive run late in the year if they want to get back to the postseason. C.J. Stroud is back for the Texans after missing time with a consussion, while Patrick Mahomes tries to deliver a signature outing in primetime against one of the league’s best defenses.

We look at the best player props for Stroud and Mahomes on Sunday Night Football with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model. For a full game forecast of Texans vs. Chiefs and more NFL player prop recommendations, visit SportsLine.

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Passing yards props

C.J. Stroud: 230.5 (Over -111, Under -113)
Patrick Mahomes: 240.5 (Over -111, Under -113)

Top pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 240.5 passing yards (5 stars)

Mahomes’ consensus line on this prop is 234.5 but the model is expecting him to ball out against a tough Texans secondary, projecting him for 281.4 passing yards. Mahomes has topped 240.5 passing yards in 10 games this season, including each of the last nine contests.

Passing attempts props

C.J. Stroud: 34.5 (Over -105, Under -121)
Patrick Mahomes: 34.5 (Over -120, Under -107)

Top pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 34.5 passing attempts (4.5 stars)

The model likes the Over on both quarterbacks, expecting this to be a potentially high-scoring affair. Mahomes has thrown 35 or more passes in seven games this season but he has three additional games where he threw exactly 34 passes. If the Chiefs want to save their season, they’re likely going to give Mahomes more chances to air it out.

Passing touchdowns props

C.J. Stroud: 1.5 (Over +149, Under -191)
Patrick Mahomes: 1.5 (Over +101, Under -129)

Top pick: C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 passing TDs (2.5 stars)

There’s not a lot of confidence on either player’s touchdowns prop, as Mahomes Under 1.5 passing TDs has a 2-star rating. Stroud has thrown one touchdown or less in six games, and has zero passing scores in each of his last two starts.