The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Los Angeles Chargers players heading into their matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles to help you craft a winning lineup.
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Justin Herbert, QB
Justin Herbert has three straight finishes outside of the top 15 at the position and is now dealing with off-hand surgery ahead of this Monday nighter.
Not great.
Since their Week 9 bye, the Eagles have allowed just one QB (Dak Prescott) to reach his season average, and even that came with a slanted game script, with the Cowboys falling behind by 21 early.
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There’s a world in which we see Herbert lean into his athleticism and get us there as a result. We’ve seen him do it a few times this season (three games with 50+ rush yards), and with a variety of weapons for Philadelphia to keep tabs on, it’s possible.
I’m cautiously optimistic. The Bolts will have a better feel for what their QB can/can’t do than the opponent, and that has me thinking they have a scheme advantage.
That said, there’s more risk than normal with Herbert, and if you wanted to play a Sam Darnold or Bo Nix type over him, I wouldn’t blame you.
Kimani Vidal, RB
Kimani Vidal has shown well for himself and figures to remain involved if Omarion Hampton returns as expected, but he’d fall from an RB2 to a low-end flex should that situation come to pass.
He piled up 126 yards on the ground against the Raiders last week and has at least 95 rushing yards in every game this season in which he’s been handed the ball more than 12 times. Hampton is the higher pedigree player and is viewed as the future, but a 60/40 type of committee is a logical expectation as he works back into game shape.
The Eagles had their noses bloodied on Black Friday by the Bears (Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift ran for 255 yards and two scores on 40 totes), but they showed well prior and have had extended rest to prepare for this game. They are the fourth-best red-zone defense in the league, drastically reducing the TD equity for all involved.
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That’s assuming that Herbert plays. If he sits, this is an offense that, for our purposes, is drawing close to death with Trey Lance under center.
Omarion Hampton, RB
The hope at this point is that Hampton (ankle) returns from IR this week, but I typed that exact sentence last week, and by Friday, he was wearing a non-contact jersey.
Herbert threw a red-zone interception last week against the Raiders after a few failed goal-line rush attempts, a spot where Hampton would have been helpful.
The rookie had at least a dozen carries, AND five receptions in each of the last three games he’s played, a level of versatility that tempts me to put him in the flex ranks the second he is activated, even if the role could be limited.
Vidal has been good enough in Hampton’s stead, but this franchise wants more than that. Herbert’s salary jumped from a base of $6 million last season to $15 million this season and will continue to rise until hitting $47 million in 2028. Winning with a franchise quarterback on a reasonably affordable deal is what every team aims to do.
Keenan Allen, WR
This season, 26 of Keenan Allen’s 60 receptions have come on third down, proof positive that while he’s struggling to light up the fantasy scoreboard (one top-35 finish after a hot three-game run to open the season), the Chargers are getting what they need.
Good for them, bad for us.
Allen has had five straight games since his 11-119-1 line against the Colts, with 2-4 catches, and given the chain-moving mentality of those looks, they don’t exactly carry much in the way of upside.
On the bright side, I don’t know how mashup-reliant Allen’s profile is. The bad teams don’t force as many third-down situations, so I’d argue that stiffer defenses actually increase the target projection for Los Angeles’ veteran WR3.
At some level, that’s splitting hairs because he hasn’t done enough to hit your lineup consistently. Still, with a tough finishing kick (Eagles-Chiefs-Cowboys-Texans-Broncos), it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s their second most productive receiver and on the fringes of viability in deeper PPR formats.
Allen currently resides in that uncomfortable ranking zone where I’m not green-lighting a drop, but I’d also be hard-pressed to start him.
Ladd McConkey, WR
It took a minute for Ladd McConkey to get the engine revved this season, but I’m OK with where things stand now and feel comfortable starting him weekly in all formats.
He was held without a touchdown in September, but he hasn’t been held out of the paint in consecutive games since. The upside has been lacking of late (52 yards on 10 targets over his past two games), and the Herbert hand injury is certainly worth monitoring. Still, the once-confusing hierarchy of this passing game seems to have returned to what we assumed it would be this summer.
For those already looking ahead to next season, I’d say there’s a good chance I’m a reasonable amount higher than others in the industry when it comes to the ranking of McConkey.
Quentin Johnston, WR
Quentin Johnston got the touchdown on the Chargers’ first drive last week as Herbert quickly identified a mismatch with a linebacker and paired him off.
But that was really all we got from QJ against the Raiders.
He airballed in Week 11 and scored in double figures in Week 13: his expected point totals were just 0.3 PPR points apart between the two showings. The version we’ve seen of Johnston lately is the version we’ve come to know, and that makes him more risk than reward on a week-to-week basis.
Weeks 1-5: 22.7% target share
Weeks 7-13: 15.2% target share
Career: 16.2% target share
The Eagles own the third-highest opponent average depth of target this season, so if you want to roll out there as a Captain for your MNF Showdown lineup as a way of getting different, be my guest. In that situation, it’s a big swing, small miss situation. Playing him in a season-long situation is a bit different, and the risk involved is why I have him ranked outside of my top 35 at the position.
Oronde Gadsden, TE
I think it’s safe to say that the run of Tier 2 production from Oronde Gadsden is in the rearview, and the question now shifts to whether he is viable or not.
I’m skeptical at best.
He’s turned 13 targets into just six receptions over his past three games, and now we have this Herbert hand injury to navigate. Against the Raiders, he ranked behind the three primary receivers in routes run and targets. They all got a touch in the red zone (and so did Tre Harris if you’re keeping track at home) while Gadsden did not, another strike against him in terms of paths to viability at the tight end position.
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Of course, it takes relatively little to be in the mix for a top 15 grade at TE. His unique ability to make big plays (20+ yard grab in six of his past seven, 14,1 yards per catch this season) lands him as such, but I don’t think he’s realistically above the streaming tier for the remainder of the season.
Week 14 vs. Eagles
Week 15 at Chiefs
Week 16 at Cowboys
Week 17 vs. Texans
Week 18 at Broncos
This offense as a whole could underwhelm, and that’s without penciling in limitations for Herbert. I think you can give him one more week with four teams on bye and a lack of stability in the TE8-TE15 range, but if he fails in this spot, I’d consider you among those streaming the position the rest of the way.