Parker’s prediction: Mayfield airs it out at home vs. New Orleans.
Dec 7, 2025 • 10:17 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Imagn Images. Check out our Saints vs. Buccaneers predictions for Week 14.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can put some distance between themselves and the rest of the NFC South with a win over the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium today.
My Saints vs. Buccaneers predictions are backing Baker Mayfield to shine against a weak NOLA pass defense.
Check out my NFL picks for Sunday, December 7 ahead of this 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS.
Saints vs Buccaneers prediction
Saints vs Buccaneers Best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 216.5 passing yards (-114)
There’s a sizable gap in Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield’s numbers at Raymond James Stadium and the highway, with the veteran averaging 249 yards per game and 7.6 yards per target at home compared to respective 193.6 and 6.0 marks on the road.
This is also the lowest passing yards total for Mayfield since the beginning of the 2024 campaign, and there’s nothing scary about the New Orleans Saints‘ pass defense.
NOLA has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and 11th-highest EPA per dropback, ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA.
Additionally, New Orleans is 29th in PFF pass rush grade and 30th in pass rush win rate, while Tampa Bay is 15th in pass block grade and fifth in pass block win rate.
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Saints vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
I expect New Orleans to be outmatched on both sides of the ball, particularly with the Tampa Bay defense ranking eighth in defensive DVOA going against rookie QB Tyler Shough. The Saints have already lost by double-digits six times this season and average the third-fewest points per game (15.2).
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, look for Tampa Bay running back Bucky Irving to find the end zone again in Week 14. He scored in his return to action last week, and the Saints have allowed a rushing score in five of their past six contests.
Saints vs Buccaneers SGP
Buccaneers -8.5
Baker Mayfield Over 216.5 passing yards
Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Godwin Mode
Tampa wideout Chris Godwin garnered two red-zone targets in Week 13, and he and Mayfield connected for five touchdowns across seven games before Godwin’s injury last season.
Saints vs Buccaneers SGP
Buccaneers -8.5
Baker Mayfield Over 216.5 passing yards
Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
Chris Godwin anytime touchdown
Saints vs Buccaneers game predictions
Saints vs Buccaneers moneyline prediction
Tampa Bay can pull away in the NFC South with the Carolina Panthers on a bye this week, and I fully expect the Bucs to take care of business against the 2-10 Saints.
New Orleans has beaten Tampa just once in their past seven meetings.
Saints vs Buccaneers spread prediction
The Saints have already lost by double-digits six times this season, including in Week 8 when Tampa Bay topped them 23-3 at the Caesars Superdome.Â
With the Saints ranking 28th in offensive DVOA and averaging the third-fewest points per game (15.2), I’m not anticipating them keeping pace with the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Saints vs Buccaneers Over/Under prediction
The Under has hit in six of the past eight meetings between these two teams, and the Bucs send out a solid stop unit ranking eighth in defensive DVOA.
NOLA also hasn’t played to the Over since Week 4.
Saints vs Buccaneers odds
Spread: Saints +8.5 (-115) | Buccaneers -8.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Saints +360 | Buccaneers -460
Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-110) | Under 41.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Saints vs Buccaneers trend to know
Tampa Bay has won 13 of its last 21 games (+4.75 Units / 11% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Saints vs Buccaneers
Location
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Date
Sunday, December 7, 2025
Kickoff
1:00 p.m. ET
TV
CBS
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