The Houston Texans (7-5) travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO, for a marquee Sunday Night Football matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs (6-6). Both teams are looking to solidify their standing in the AFC, and the model projects a tight contest with a final score of 23-20 in favor of the Chiefs.

With the action set to kick off on Sunday night, DraftKings has posted a robust set of player props, including interesting odds for Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.

Sportsbook Featured Prop: Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+195)

DraftKings offers odds of +195 on Travis Kelce to score a touchdown anytime against the Texans on Sunday.

Kelce remains a primary red-zone target for Patrick Mahomes, projected for 48 receiving yards in this defensive battle.Dimers’ predictive model gives Kelce a 29.3% probability of finding the end zone.While teammates Kareem Hunt (42.7%) and Rashee Rice (42.4%) have higher raw probabilities, Kelce’s +195 odds offer significant payout potential compared to the shorter odds of the other Chiefs stars.Note: Odds in this article are correct at time of publication and subject to change.Special SGP Promo: HOU Texans @ KC Chiefs SGP Boost

For this Sunday Night Football showdown, DraftKings Missouri has an active Profit Boost promotion available.

The Deal: Opt-in to get one (1) Profit Boost Token for the HOU Texans @ KC Chiefs game on 12/7/2025.Details: The token applies specifically to a Same Game Parlay (SGP) bet.Conditions: Profit boost applies to winnings only (excluding original stake). Parlay minimum legs and maximum betting limits apply. You must select the Profit Boost Token in your betslip before placing the wager.More promos are available for Missouri residents betting on the Chiefs with the Bet365 bonus codes SILIVE or SYRACUSE, or this FanDuel bonus bet offer.Expert Prediction: Texans vs. Chiefs

Dimers’ simulations give Kansas City the edge in Sunday Night’s matchup, projecting a 23-20 Chiefs win after 10,000 model runs. The Chiefs’ 63% win probability highlights their strength at home, though the Texans are expected to keep it within a field goal margin, suggesting a competitive, defensive game script.

Best Bet: Over 41.5

While the spread favors the Chiefs (-4), the model identifies the strongest edge on the Total.

The Play: Over 41.5 Points (-110)Edge: 1.4%Probability: 53.7%With a projected combined score of 43 points (23-20), the model sees value in backing the Over at the low line of 41.5.NFL Player Props: Texans vs. ChiefsAnytime Touchdown Scorers

Chiefs:

Kareem Hunt — 42.7%Rashee Rice — 42.4%Travis Kelce — 29.3%Xavier Worthy — 24.0%Patrick Mahomes — 18.5%

Texans:

Woody Marks — 38.1%Nico Collins — 35.0%Jayden Higgins — 22.8%Dalton Schultz — 20.3%Nick Chubb — 18.7%Projected Player Stat LeadersProjected Yardage Leaders TableTeamPlayerCategoryProjectionChiefsPatrick MahomesPassing247 yardsTexansC. StroudPassing239 yardsChiefsRashee RiceReceiving73 yardsTexansNico CollinsReceiving72 yardsTexansWoody MarksRushing51 yardsChiefsTravis KelceReceiving48 yardsTexansDalton SchultzReceiving43 yardsChiefsKareem HuntRushing40 yardsConclusion: Texans vs. Chiefs on SNF

Kansas City rates as the clear favorite to win (63%), fueled by home-field advantage and a reliable connection between Mahomes and his top targets. The model predicts a 23-20 victory for the Chiefs, suggesting the Texans will cover the +4 spread but fall short of the upset. With the total set low at 41.5, the data suggests a slight edge on the Over. For prop bettors, Kareem Hunt and Rashee Rice lead the touchdown probabilities, but Travis Kelce offers the most intriguing value at +195.

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