The Detroit Lions have had an up-and-down season. They sit at 8-5 after a huge Thursday-night win over the Dallas Cowboys. Detroit has shown bursts of brilliance and stretches of inconsistency. Their division record (1-3) and conference mark (5-4) have created real obstacles.

Thursday’s game felt like a season saver. The Lions beat Dallas Cowboys 44-30 at Ford Field. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for three touchdowns and finished with 120 all-purpose yards. Jared Goff completed 25 of 34 passes for 309 yards and a touchdown. Detroit’s defense pressured the Cowboys and created turnovers. The win pushed Detroit’s playoff odds sharply higher. Next Gen Stats put Detroit’s chances at 53 percent after the victory.

MORE: Jameis Winston names key Packers factor to beat Bears

Still, veteran analyst Steve Mariucci offered a blunt read. He predicted the Lions may not make the playoffs.

“I don’t think so,” Mariucci said. He called the path “hard.” He pointed to the tiebreakers and the NFC’s depth. Mariucci noted Detroit was swept by Green Bay and that their conference and division records hurt them. He even joked about flipping a coin. But the point was clear, margin for error is tiny.

Mariucci’s view is grounded in math and matchups. The NFC has many contenders. Detroit can’t afford more slip-ups. Mariucci said the Lions could win 11 games and still miss the postseason depending on how others finish. That shows how tight the race is.

But the tone in Detroit is hopeful. Players and coaches praised the effort after the Dallas win. Gibbs, Goff and the defensive line answered in a big game. The schedule still offers opportunities.

“That’s a tough out. All right? They could win 11 games, maybe, and still not get in, and it’s going to come down to the last game over there in Chicago, at Chicago, and it’s going to be maybe win or make the playoffs. That’s how close this division is….The Packers, I think, are sweep the Bears. Man, I don’t know what I just said, but you know what? It’s going to be tough for the Lions,” Mariucci added.

Bottom line: Mariucci sees a steep climb. The Lions’ recent win gives them momentum. But he warns that tiebreakers, past losses and a stacked NFC make their path risky. The next few games will decide whether his prediction holds.

— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories on The Big Lead —

NFL: Fantasy football waiver wire steals for Week 14

CFB: Lane Kiffin, LSU football contract & salary details revealed

MLB: New York Yankees lose $51 million free agent to Mets

NBA: Paul Pierce makes bold Michael Jordan claim about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SPORTS MEDIA: Skip Bayless eviscerates Aaron Rodgers after Steelers’ Week 13 loss

VIRAL: Platinum-selling rapper Toosii commits to Syracuse football team