The College Football Playoff field is set, to much angst and some surprises along the way. While the bubble this year was ripe for ample debate, the top seeds seemed assured for some time, and represent the best of the season: No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech.
And while Indiana has exploded to the top of the sport in no time at all, and kept the Buckeyes in check throughout the Big Ten title game, none of our experts pick the Hoosiers to take the overall crown.
Here are our experts’ predictions for how the Playoff will unfold.
My colleagues and I all agree: We don’t think Alabama should be in. The Tide sputtered down the stretch and definitely didn’t look like they were playing their best football in November. They also started the season with a dud, getting whupped by Florida State, a team that obviously didn’t turn out to be very good.
I also think the CFP committee ended up screwing over Notre Dame. The Irish are one of the 10 best teams this season. They had “good” losses but no great wins. The best was versus a three-loss USC team. Alabama has better wins, but worse losses — and more of them now. It feels worse for Notre Dame because of the foolishness of trotting out Playoff rankings in early November. If this, on Sunday, Dec. 7, was the first reveal, and Miami was ahead of a team it beat, with the exact same record, I doubt few people would’ve been stunned to see Miami ahead of Notre Dame. But because of the early rankings and all the double-talk from committee chair Hunter Yurachek, it created so many unnecessary headaches.
Having JMU in as a second Group of 5 program looks ridiculous. You can blame the ACC leadership for leaving its league so vulnerable until the conference title game chaos the unfolded. That was always a risk with conference expansion bloat, and it ultimately happened.
Miami did end up sneaking in. The Canes are talented enough to go on a Playoff run, but so is Texas A&M and I think the Aggies, with a big home-field advantage, win that opening round game. I think Oregon crushes JMU. Alabama vindicates itself and doesn’t lose for a third time in two seasons to Oklahoma.
My big opening round upset is that Tulane, which got manhandled by Ole Miss earlier this year, knocks off the Rebels in a rematch.
In the semifinals, I predict Oregon beats Texas Tech, Indiana beats Alabama, Georgia hammers Tulane and Ohio State beats the Aggies. As good as Georgia is playing, I still think the Buckeyes will beat them to get to the title game, and I pick Indiana beating Oregon to set up a Big Ten Championship Game rematch. As impressed as I’ve been with the Hoosiers, I predict the Buckeyes repeating as national champions. — Bruce Feldman
Indiana winning the national championship would be the greatest story in the history of college football, bar none. But I’m predicting one of the usual suspects, Georgia, to stymie the undefeated Hoosiers one step short.
But first:
• I don’t think Alabama should be in the field at all. But now that it is, it’ll get revenge on Oklahoma in the first round in a 13-9 kind of game. The Tide doesn’t have a running game, but the Sooners have no offense at all. And Alabama should at least have Jam Miller back.
• Miami-Texas A&M should be fun. The Hurricanes go in with more momentum than the Aggies, but expect Mike Elko’s team to come out ticked off after the Texas loss, and Kyle Field will be rocking. Aggies win.
• I saw Ole Miss-Tulane before. It wasn’t close. Unless the Rebels have fallen apart post-Lane Kiffin exit, they shouldn’t have a problem. Ditto Oregon over James Madison.
• An Indiana-Alabama Rose Bowl is just awesome. In a sentence I never thought I’d write, though, the Hoosiers are a much better team. They roll to the semifinals.
• Ohio State-Texas A&M also feels like a mismatch, and I don’t think it matters that the Aggies will be playing close to home. Buckeyes fans always show up. They did against Texas in last year’s Cotton Bowl.
• Ole Miss plays yet another rematch game against Georgia. The first game was extremely competitive, but Georgia’s defense is night and day better than it was then. Georgia wins, also in a blowout.
• The best quarterfinal will be Oregon-Texas Tech. The Red Raiders’ swarming defense will cause problems for the Ducks’ defense, but there’s a gap at quarterback between Dante Moore and Behren Morton. Ducks win.
• At which point we get another rematch game, Indiana vs. Oregon in Atlanta. I can’t get the image of IU mauling the Ducks in the trenches the first time they played. The Hoosiers advance.
• Ohio State-Georgia feels like a national championship game in the semifinals. The Buckeyes looked like the most complete team in the country the first 12 games of the season, but when they finally ran into a comparable foe on Saturday, their offensive line struggled. The Bulldogs defense will cause many of the same problems and win.
So then: Georgia vs. Indiana for the national championship? The Hoosiers are clearly legitimate. But this is where they’ll finally run into a deeper, more talented team, and depth matters the further you get in the bracket. Kirby Smart wins his third national title. — Stewart Mandel
I didn’t think Alabama should be in the Playoff, so of course I’m picking the Crimson Tide to make all the critics look foolish and reach the semifinals, ruining the best story in college football along the way.
With the seeding fixed this year to match the rankings, unlike last year when the format jammed conference champions into the top four spots, it’s tempting to pick an otherwise chalky bracket. That’s my pick on one side. I’ll take Miami to pull a small upset at Texas A&M, but otherwise the favorites roll to a national semifinal of No. 2 Ohio State against No. 3 Georgia. I’ll take the Bulldogs to end the Buckeyes chances to repeat.
On the other side, it’s a lot harder to back Kalen DeBoer’s Tide than it was Nick Saban’s, but I’ll take Alabama to avenge its loss to Oklahoma in Norman and then beat Indiana in the Rose Bowl in a scenario that will make SEC supporters truly insufferable. Oregon will hold up the honor of the Big Ten by beating Alabama in the semifinals, setting up a matchup between Kirby Smart and his former defensive coordinator, Oregon coach Dan Lanning, in the championship game.
The mentor beats the pupil, and Georgia wins its third national title since 2021. — Ralph Russo