NFL playoff picture: Shedeur Sanders, Browns eliminated from postseason while Bucs' loss heats up NFC South race

Every game matters at this point in the season as teams fight for playoff position and chase division titles.

Here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks after the first wave of games Sunday in Week 14:

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (10-3): Up next — vs. Indianapolis Colts in Week 15
Notable odds: Though almost a lock to make the playoffs (The Athletic has them at 97% and NFL.com at 96%) the Seahawks still aren’t the favorite to win the NFC West.

2. Chicago Bears (9-3): Up next — At Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Notable odds: The Bears are in first in the NFC standings. The Bears’ win over the Eagles on Black Friday bumped Chicago’s odds to win the NFC North to 35% in The Athletic’s playoff simulator.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4): Up next — At Los Angeles Chargers, Monday, 8:15 ET
Notable odds: Philly still has an iron grip on the NFC East, but two straight losses, including a Black Friday defeat to the Bears, has crushed its hopes of a No. 1 seed. The Eagles are down to 8% to earn the top NFC seed, per The Athletic.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6): Up next — vs. Atlanta Falcons in Week 15
Notable odds: The Buccaneers are locked in with the Panthers atop the NFC South standings, and have a 71% shot at making the playoffs, per NFL.com. A pair of games against the Panthers over the next month will be critical.

5. Los Angeles Rams (9-3): Up next — At Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Notable odds: The Rams’ odds of clinching the NFC’s No. 1 seed plummeted to 37%, per the Athletic’s simulator, after their loss to the Panthers in Week 13. The defeat dropped them out of first in the conference standings.

6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1): Up next — vs. Chicago Bears, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Notable odds: Favorites to win the NFC North at 58%, per The Athletic. This weekend’s game against Chicago looms large.

7. San Francisco 49ers (9-4): Up next — vs. Tennessee Titans in Week 15
Notable odds: Strong playoff favorites at 93%, per The Athletic.

Still in the NFC picture

8. Detroit Lions (8-5): Up next — At Los Angeles Rams in Week 15
Notable odds: 54% to make the playoffs, per NFL.com. They still have only an 8% chance to win the NFC North, per The Athletic.

9. Carolina Panthers (7-6): Up next — At New Orleans Saints in Week 15
Notable odds: The Panthers have a 33% chance to both make the playoffs and win their division after the Buccaneers’ latest loss, per The Athletic.

10. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1): Up next — vs. Minnesota Vikings in Week 15
Notable odds: 9% to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic, and 7%, per NFL.com. A victory over the Lions on TNF would have bumped the Boys up to 39%, according to NFL.com.

AFC

1. New England Patriots (11-2): Up next — vs. Buffalo Bills in Week 15
Notable odds: With a clear edge over the Bills and a head-to-head victory, the Patriots are closing in on securing the AFC East title, at 90% to win it. And they have by far the highest odds of anyone to grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which they reclaimed on Monday night.

2. Denver Broncos (10-2): Up next — At Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 4:05 ET
Notable odds: With another Chiefs loss, Denver is an even heavier favorite to win the AFC West crown at 86%, per The Athletic. They briefly overtook the Patriots for the No. 1 seed in the AFC with their overtime win against the Commanders on Sunday night before New England reclaimed it in a prime-time victory against the Giants.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4): Up next — vs. New York Jets in Week 15
Notable odds: The Jags are the leaders in the AFC South, and are at 96% likely to make the postseason, per NFL.com.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6): Up next — vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 15
Notable odds: The Steelers aren’t done yet, and now lead their division after beating the Ravens on Sunday. Their odds of clinching a playoff berth rose to 66%, per The Athletic.

5. Buffalo Bills (9-4): Up next — At New England Patriots in Week 15
Notable odds: While Buffalo’s chances at catching up to New England to win the division title are slim (10% according to The Athletic), the Bills are still very likely to qualify for the postseason, at 96%.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4): Up next — vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Notable odds: The Chargers still have good odds of making the playoffs at 64%, per NFL.com. Catching Denver for the division title, however, is a long shot 13%, per The Athletic.

7. Indianapolis Colts (8-5): Up next — At Seattle Seahawks in Week 15
Notable odds: The Colts have just a 50% shot at making the playoffs now, per NFL.com, after their latest loss. Quarterback Daniel Jones suffered an Achilles injury, too, making things only more difficult for the franchise.

Still in the AFC picture

8. Houston Texans (7-5): Up next — At Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Notable odds: The Texans’ odds to make the playoffs jumped after their win over the Colts, up to 60%, per The Athletic.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6): Up next — vs. Houston Texans, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Notable odds: Kansas City’s Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys was costly. NFL.com’s model shows the Chiefs fell from 52% to 34% to make the postseason. At four games behind the Broncos in the AFC West, hopes of a division title are effectively down the drain.

10. Baltimore Ravens (6-7): Up next — At Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15
Notable odds: With back-to-back losses now, the Ravens have plummeted to the last bubble team in the AFC hunt. They have 32% odds of making the postseason, according to NFL.com

Recently Eliminated

Teams who were eliminated during Week 14.

Washington Commanders (3-10)

Already eliminated

Teams who were already eliminated entering Week 14.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

NFL playoff picture: Shedeur Sanders, Browns eliminated from postseason while Bucs’ loss heats up NFC South race

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