Week 14, particularly the Tennessee Titans’ 31-29 win over the Cleveland Browns, shook up the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

The 2-11 Las Vegas Raiders now own the best odds for the top selection according to The Athletic’s NFL simulator, but seven other teams are in the mix with four weeks left in the regular season. Here’s a look at the teams in the race and their odds to make the top pick.

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

By virtue of the Raiders’ seventh straight loss and the Titans’ win over the Browns, Las Vegas now has the best odds to earn the No. 1 pick. Quarterback Geno Smith left the game early with a right shoulder injury and did not return, forcing first-year head coach Pete Carroll to turn to backup Kenny Pickett.

The Raiders’ odds for the top pick are now above 40 percent, with the chance to improve in the next few weeks over a tough remaining schedule. A Week 17 game against the New York Giants — one of the NFL’s three two-win teams — figures to have a big impact on which team winds up with the top pick. The Raiders last held the top pick in 2007 when they selected LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell.

Remaining schedule: at Philadelphia Eagles, at Houston Texans, vs. New York Giants, vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Tennessee Titans (2-11)

The Titans got their second win but lost their positioning as the frontrunner for the No. 1 pick. Running back Tony Pollard had his best game of the season with 25 carries for 161 yards and two touchdowns. He entered Sunday with two touchdowns total over the first 12 games.

Tennessee entered the week with better than a 50 percent chance of owning the No. 1 pick for the second season in a row. But a win against the Browns cut those odds by more than half and makes the race much more crowded.

Remaining schedule: at San Francisco 49ers, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, vs. New Orleans Saints, at Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets (3-10)

The Jets lost 34-10 to the surging Miami Dolphins on Sunday, who are on a four-game winning streak since firing general manager Chris Grier. The loss officially eliminated the Jets from playoff contention for the 15th straight year and boosted their odds to around 10 percent for next year’s top pick. Poor quarterback play and a declining defense have defined the Jets’ season, and it’s clear they are looking forward after trading their top talent at the deadline.

Any win the rest of the way would essentially eliminate the Jets from the top-pick running, as is the case for the other three-win teams in the mix.

Remaining schedule: at Jacksonville Jaguars, at New Orleans Saints, vs. New England Patriots, at Buffalo Bills

Cleveland Browns (3-10)

Shedeur Sanders threw for 364 yards and three touchdowns and scored another on the ground against the Titans, but Tennessee spoiled the rookie fifth-round pick’s day with its 31-29 win. Even with Myles Garrett eyeing the NFL sack record, the Browns’ season has largely disappointed, and quarterback uncertainty continues to frustrate the fans in Cleveland.

A loss to the previously one-win Titans was especially deflating, though it does put the Browns back in the mix for the top pick with odds just below 10 percent.

Remaining schedule: at Chicago Bears, vs. Buffalo Bills, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, at Cincinnati Bengals

New York Giants (2-11)

The Giants, on a bye this week, are tied for the worst record in the league but still have just the fifth-best odds at landing the top pick. That’s because The Athletic’s model believes they are slightly better than the other teams in the top five and also because they play an easier schedule, including next week’s game against the reeling Washington Commanders and their Week 17 game against the Raiders.

Remaining schedule: vs. Washington Commanders, vs. Minnesota Vikings, at Las Vegas Raiders, vs. Dallas Cowboys

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough had a career day as the Saints stunned the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 24-20 win. Shough fueled the team with two rushing touchdowns in the second half and he added 144 yards passing.

New Orleans had the third-best odds for the No. 1 pick after losing last week to the Dolphins. Now, those odds are down to around 6 percent and they are projected for the No. 6 pick. With games against the Jets and Titans still left on the schedule, they could boost their odds significantly with losses in those games but they would still need help.

Remaining schedule: vs. Carolina Panthers, vs. New York Jets, at Tennessee Titans, at Atlanta Falcons

Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

The Cardinals are on a five-game losing streak and lost Sunday to the Los Angeles Rams. Quarterback Kyler Murray hasn’t played since he injured his foot Oct. 5, and head coach Jonathan Gannon said this week that Murray will not return this season. That puts the Cardinals’ future at quarterback in question. The odds are long to jump up to the top pick, but a top-five selection is within reach.

Remaining schedule: at Houston Texans, vs. Atlanta Falcons, at Cincinnati Bengals, at Los Angeles Rams

Washington Commanders (3-10)

The Commanders’ nightmare season hit a new low in a 31-0 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The blowout result eliminated the Commanders from playoff contention, and quarterback Jayden Daniels left the game early after throwing an interception and landing on his previously dislocated left elbow. Washington has lost its past eight games, putting itself mathematically in the running for the 2026 top pick in a season the Commanders thought would have played out much differently.

Remaining schedule: at New York Giants, vs. Philadelphia Eagles, vs. Dallas Cowboys, at Philadelphia Eagles