Where the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks stand in NFC playoff picture

The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams both took care of business on Sunday.

Seattle rode a dominant second half to a 37-9 blowout of the Atlanta Falcons, while Los Angeles cruised past the Arizona Cardinals in a 45-17 rout.

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That leaves the Seahawks (10-3) and Rams (10-3) locked in a first-place tie atop the razor-tight NFC West, with the idle San Francisco 49ers (9-4) sitting one game behind.

Los Angeles still holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Seattle by virtue of its 21-19 win over the Seahawks last month. But Seattle has a chance to nullify that when the Rams come to town for a high-stakes Week 16 rematch on Dec. 18.

NFL standings

Elsewhere in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) held on to beat the Chicago Bears (9-4) in a battle for first place in the NFC North. Chicago entered the week in a three-way tie with Seattle and Los Angeles for the NFC’s best record, but the Bears’ loss means it’s now a two-way tie between the Seahawks and Rams.

However, despite being tied for the conference’s best record, Seattle is currently the NFC’s No. 5 seed. That’s because the conference’s top four seeds go to the four division winners, so the best a non-division winner can be seeded is No. 5. And again, the Rams currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Seattle, so they are the NFC’s No. 1 seed for now.

The current NFC playoff picture

Here’s how the playoff picture currently looks in the NFC:

No. 1 seed: Los Angeles Rams – 10-3 (NFC West leader)
No. 2 seed: Green Bay Packers – 9-3-1 (NFC North leader)
No. 3 seed: Philadelphia Eagles – 8-4 (NFC East leader)
No. 4 seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-6 (NFC South leader)
No. 5 seed: Seattle Seahawks – 10-3 (top NFC wild card)
No. 6 seed: San Francisco 49ers – 9-4 (second NFC wild card)
No. 7 seed: Chicago Bears – 9-4 (third NFC wild card)

In the hunt: Detroit Lions (8-5), Carolina Panthers (7-6), Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

If the playoffs began today, the No. 5 seed Seahawks would travel to face the No. 4 seed Buccaneers in the wild-card round. In the other wild-card round matchups, the No. 2 seed Packers would host the No. 7 seed Bears and the No. 3 seed Eagles would host the No. 6 seed 49ers.

As the No. 1 seed, the Rams would receive a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

That underscores just how pivotal the NFC West race is shaping up to be. The NFC West champion might only need to win two home playoff games to reach the Super Bowl, while the division’s second-place and third-place teams would probably have to string together three consecutive road playoff victories.

What the odds say

According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, the Rams now have a 59% chance to win the NFC West, followed by the Seahawks at 29% and the 49ers at 11%.

The Seahawks’ odds would jump to 52% if they beat the Rams in Week 16, but would drop to 4% if they lose that game. If the Seahawks beat both the Rams in Week 16 and the 49ers in Week 18, their division title odds would surge to 77%.

Meanwhile, the Rams have a 46% chance at claiming the NFC’s top seed and the first-round bye that comes with it. The Seahawks have the next-best odds (25%), followed by the Packers (12%), 49ers (8%), Eagles (5%) and Bears (4%).

Seattle’s odds to reach the playoffs are 98%.

Where the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks stand in NFC playoff picture

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