How Does New England Hang On to the No. 1 Seed?

With four games left in the regular season, the New England Patriots have found themselves in a position that very few people expected back in the offseason.

The Patriots sit at 11-2, currently holding the AFC’s No. 1 seed, with the Denver Broncos close behind. The remaining four games feature a mix of playoff-caliber teams, which will be a test of how far this team has come.

The Buffalo Bills

After their bye week, the Patriots will take on the Buffalo Bills. In October, the Patriots defeated the Bills in Buffalo 23-20. This could be considered New England’s first test of the season, and they passed rather convincingly. New England has played well enough this season to have a two-game cushion for the division lead.

This time, the game takes place at Gillette Stadium, and the Bills will be hungry for revenge. The Bills are coming off a rough patch, dropping two of their last four games. Buffalo has won the previous five AFC East division titles, following New England’s 11 titles before that. It is safe to say that these two teams have dominated the division.

This game will be a test to see if New England can all but clinch the division title for the first time since 2019, and get one step closer to getting the conference’s No. 1 seed.

The Baltimore Ravens

The Sunday before Christmas, the Patriots will travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. This could be their toughest matchup left on the schedule.

The Ravens currently sit at 6-6 on the year, which doesn’t look outstanding on paper. However, this team has been riddled with injuries, including but not limited to the 2x NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson, who missed about a month with a hamstring injury.

With Jackson back playing and getting healthier every day, the Ravens are tied with the Steelers for the AFC North and have won five of their last six games. This game for the Patriots will be in a hostile environment and will be a formidable test as they head into the playoffs.

The New York Jets

The week after, the Patriots will travel to MetLife Stadium to face their rival, the New York Jets. On paper, New England should have the upper hand, and they already beat the Jets earlier this season. But divisional games in December tend to get strange, and the Jets will hope to play spoiler.

New York’s offense has struggled to find consistency throughout the season. After the benching of quarterback Justin Fields, former Bills starting QB Tyrod Taylor will likely be under center for this game, barring any injuries.

This game will be consequential in the Patriots’ quest to lock up the No. 1 seed, but overlooking a divisional rival this late in the year could be costly, especially with playoff seeding on the line.

The Miami Dolphins

The Patriots will close out the 2025 regular season back in Foxborough against the Dolphins. While facing Miami at home is far more favorable than a late-season trip to South Florida that has given the Patriots trouble in the past, the Dolphins still present a unique challenge.

Miami has a history of spoiling the Patriots’ first-round bye chances. Most recently, in 2019, Ryan Fitzpatrick came to Gillette Stadium and stole a massive game against the Patriots. They didn’t get the first-round bye that year and ended up losing in the Wild Card Round to none other than Mike Vrabel.

Unless the Patriots have already clinched the No. 1 seed, the game against Miami will decide their fate. A win would secure the No. 1 seed and ensure the AFC playoffs run through Foxborough, something that wasn’t even a consideration mere months ago.

The Denver of It All

While the Patriots control their own path to the AFC’s top seed, the Denver Broncos remain the biggest threat in the race. Denver’s final stretch is very tough, featuring the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers.

If the Broncos manage to survive that gauntlet, they’ll keep pressure on New England all the way to Week 18. But if they stumble even once, the Patriots have a chance to create enough separation to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

With four games left, the margin is slim, the stakes are high, and the path to the No. 1 seed is still very much up for grabs, but New England has every opportunity to finish strong and close out.

The post How Does New England Hang On to the No. 1 Seed? appeared first on The Lead.

How Does New England Hang On to the No. 1 Seed?

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