One percent. That was the Kansas City Chiefs’ chances to reach the Super Bowl after the game clock finally expired on their 20-10 home loss to the Houston Texans, according to The Athletic’s model.
The team that has played in seven consecutive AFC Championship Games is on the brink, seven weeks before the next one will be played. The fear factor is all but gone from the Chiefs after the Texans’ defense bullied Kansas City. Hurt by six dropped passes, Patrick Mahomes posted a passer rating (19.8) less than half his previous career low (44.4, set last season against San Francisco).
The Pick Six column sorts through the rubble to re-stack AFC contenders heading into the season’s final stretch. Who would have believed New England and Denver would emerge from Week 14 as favorites to reach the Super Bowl from a conference Kansas City has dominated for so long? The Buffalo Bills might not believe it yet — might this finally be their year?
We’ll run through all the AFC contenders here, stacking them by their chances to reach the Super Bowl. The full menu this week:
• Stacking AFC with Chiefs reeling
• Playoff chances took wild swings
• Vikings’ win needs no narrative
• The way, way ‘Over the Hill Gang’
• Belichick, Kraft and the Hall
• Two-minute drill: Shough, Sanders
1. The Chiefs are just about finished at 6-7. Who will take their usual spot in the Super Bowl?
Before we run through the teams, let’s take a big-picture look at projected Super Bowl chances for the AFC, shown in the table below.
Kansas City, Baltimore and Buffalo were the AFC’s consensus top three entering the season. Watching the Chiefs and Ravens take losing records into the season’s final four games once would have seemed unimaginable in the absence of catastrophic quarterback injuries. It’s true, and that’s why you’ll need to scroll a bit before finding either team here.
Now, a conference ruled by Mahomes, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning for nearly a quarter century appears wide open for the first time since perhaps 2008, when Brady tore his ACL in Week 1 and Manning’s Colts lost their playoff opener as a wild card.
• New England Patriots
W-L: 11-2 | Playoff chance: >99 percent | Super Bowl chance: 32 percent
Are these a modern-day version of the 2001 Super Bowl-winning Patriots?
Current coach Mike Vrabel was a first-time starter on that team. Current offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was a personnel assistant.
Quarterback Drake Maye is in his second season, same as Brady was then, and while no one should compare the two players based on what we know about Brady’s full career, Maye has been at least as impressive this season as Brady was in that 2001 regular season after replacing the injured Drew Bledsoe. Maye entered the Patriots’ Week 14 bye as the MVP betting favorite, after all.
“Vrabel is a modern version of Bill Belichick — understands all the fundamentals and is really good at situational football,” a coach from another team said. “The difference is, Bill would never drop the red challenge flag like he’s dropping a water balloon on his friend’s toe. Bill never would win a challenge or have a big call on the field and motion for a first down on the sideline like he’s Michael Irvin in the middle of the star.”
That’s part of what makes this version of the Patriots refreshing: They’re new, but playing like New England teams of old.
Denver owns the tiebreaker over New England for the No. 1 seed, but The Athletic’s model views the Patriots as a stronger team with a weaker remaining schedule, giving them the edge for home-field advantage and the lone first-round bye.
• Denver Broncos
W-L: 11-2 | Playoff chance: >99 percent | Super Bowl chance: 21 percent
At least our model respects the Broncos’ chances. Do you?
Denver’s 24-17 victory over the Raiders made them the 57th team in NFL history to win at least 10 in a row during a regular season. Their average point differential in those games (6.9) ranks last by a wide margin (the 1999 Colts rank 56th with an 8.7-point average margin during an 11-game win streak, while the current Patriots are 45th with an 11.8-point average margin during their 10-game streak). That’s not surprising given how many times the Broncos have struggled on offense until late before rallying behind quarterback Bo Nix in the absence of structure.
Sunday’s game offered encouragement on that front, albeit against a terrible team. Denver put together three scoring drives spanning at least 14 plays and 80 yards. No team has had more drives fitting those specs in a game since at least 2000. It was the seventh time this season that a team controlled the ball for at least 39 minutes and won. The other six teams won by 27, 24, 31, 19, 11 and nine points.
“We all know you can have the one season winning the close games,” an exec from another team said. “Minnesota did it a couple years ago. Kansas City did it last year. But it’s a dangerous roulette game, because when you don’t do it, is that the first playoff game? Then you are Minnesota losing to the Giants with Daniel Jones at the controls. That is why New England is more interesting.”
The Broncos’ defense has carried the load, but the numbers suggest it is not quite elite. Denver ranks sixth in defensive EPA per play at 0.07, half of Houston’s league-leading figure. Of 160 defenses since 2021, the Broncos’ ranks 30th (20 spots behind their 2024 unit), while the Texans’ ranks second.
• Buffalo Bills
W-L: 9-4 | Playoff chance: 98 percent | Super Bowl chance: 16 percent
The Bills won one of the season’s most exciting games Sunday, 39-34 over the Bengals. Christian Benford’s incredible pick six off the Bengals’ Joe Burrow was the difference on a day when both defenses were holding on against dominant quarterbacks. Reigning MVP Josh Allen suddenly leads the league in combined EPA when passing, rushing or scrambling. A few more games like this one, and he might win the award again.
The question remains whether Buffalo can win without its offense playing well. The team is 0-4 this season and 1-7 over the past two seasons when the offense was below average (negative EPA). Defense travels, right? Well, the Bills are 12-11 on the road over the past three seasons after going 23-9 away from home over the previous four, and in all likelihood, they will be hitting the road in the playoffs.
The Bills’ margin for error has shrunk, even with Kansas City almost out of the picture.
• Jacksonville Jaguars
W-L: 9-4 | Playoff chance: 98 percent | Super Bowl chance: 9 percent
Before the season, The Athletic’s model gave the Jaguars a 33 percent shot at reaching the playoffs but only a 1.4 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl in what was looking like a rugged AFC. Those Super Bowl chances have grown sixfold.
The Jaguars own five victories over teams that currently have winning records, one fewer than the league-leading Los Angeles Rams have (Denver, by comparison, has two). The Jaguars had zero last season.
Jacksonville has done it by improving on defense by an NFL-best 10.7 EPA per game from last season. There has been no offensive gain by that measure; Jacksonville is the only team averaging the same offensive EPA per game this season as last.
That’s what makes this a fascinating first season under new coach Liam Coen.
Hired partly to revive quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who played one of his better games of the season in beating Indy on Sunday, Coen came out throwing early in the season.
Jacksonville ranked fifth on the Cook Index through Week 9, passing 60 percent of the time on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time remaining and score differential exert more influence. The Jaguars have passed 43 percent of the time in those situations since Week 10, which ranks 27th. That’s a recalibration.
“The nice thing is, Jacksonville and Chicago are winning enough that the coach gets the juice, not the incumbent quarterback,” another exec said. “Two years ago, when Lawrence got his deal, he had the juice. Last offseason, when Caleb’s dad said the Bears were a quarterback graveyard, well, now we have a new caretaker in the graveyard.”
Coen, Lawrence and the Jaguars remain very much alive.
• Houston Texans
W-L: 8-5 | Playoff chance: 92 percent | Super Bowl chance: 9 percent
Houston leads the league in defensive EPA per play. Will that be enough to overcome an offense that ranks 26th, just ahead of the Saints, Jets and Vikings? It was enough against the Chiefs, who were playing without both starting offensive tackles, even before their starter at left tackle Sunday night, Wanya Morris, suffered an injury on the first play from scrimmage.
“It is all four-man rush, and the rush is hot,” a coach from another team said. “That menu is small in size, but great in depth of understanding.”
The Texans held the Chiefs to 4 of 14 conversions on third down without sending more than four pass rushers even one time. They rank fourth among 224 defenses since 2019 in third-down EPA per play when rushing four or fewer, per TruMedia. Only the 2020 Ravens, 2019 Patriots and 2020 Dolphins rank ahead of them over that seven-season stretch.
• Baltimore Ravens
W-L: 6-7 | Playoff chance: 31 percent | Super Bowl chance: 4 percent
Lamar Jackson has failed to complete even 60 percent of his passes in any of his past five games. He has two touchdown passes and four interceptions over that stretch. His streak of five consecutive starts without posting a passer rating of 90 or higher is his longest since a seven-game stretch of the 2021 season. Something is very wrong with Jackson and the Ravens.
It couldn’t come at a worse time, with the Chiefs and Bills — who have handed Jackson his last three playoff losses — looking vulnerable.
• Los Angeles Chargers
W-L: 8-4 | Playoff chance: 65 percent | Super Bowl chance: 4 percent
If losing by 29 points to Jacksonville, 17 to Washington and 14 to Indianapolis seems unbecoming of an 8-4 team, that’s because it is. The Chargers are the 89th team to start 8-4 since divisional realignment in 2002. They are only the seventh among the 89 to lose three of those games by at least 14 points. Let’s see how they fare at home against the Eagles on Monday night.
• Pittsburgh Steelers
W-L: 7-6 | Playoff chance: 67 percent | Super Bowl chance: 2 percent
Upon further review, the Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers rental paid off Sunday when he shockingly completed four passes traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, a total he has surpassed just six times in 274 total starts, the last time in Week 1 of his 2020 MVP season with Green Bay.
The aerial show, sustained in part when replay turned a bizarre fourth-quarter interception into an incomplete pass in a 27-22 victory over Baltimore, included three completions traveling more than 25 yards downfield, matching a career high for the future Hall of Famer.
On one play, Rodgers held the ball for 7.2 seconds before finding DK Metcalf 26 yards downfield for a 41-yard gain.
Vintage Rodgers.
PITvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/yTIaidK7zC
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
Calling out his receivers after a rough outing last week might have worked for Rodgers, who led five scoring drives but also four three-and-outs.
• Indianapolis Colts
W-L: 8-5 | Playoff chance: 30 percent | Super Bowl chance: 2 percent
Before the Colts lost quarterback Daniel Jones to what they fear is a torn Achilles tendon in their 36-19 loss at Jacksonville, I was preparing to write about how their formula for winning was becoming unsustainable. They were too reliant on the run game even before Jones got hurt.
Before Sunday, the Colts were 6-0 in games when they rushed for at least 50 yards in the first half, but only 2-4 otherwise. This seemed like a decent way to filter out rushing gains Indy made while protecting leads later in games. The results matched the eye test.
“They were 7-1 and busting 80-yard runs for touchdowns, not winning on third down or in the red zone,” an opposing coach said. “That is not sustainable in the NFL anymore because the linemen aren’t good enough. There are no ‘Hogs’ (as with the 1980s Washington Redskins). There is no ‘Riggo’ (John Riggins) telling ‘Buges’ (line coach Joe Bugel), ‘Hey, tell Gibbsy (head coach Joe Gibbs) to give me the ball because there are 50,000 in the stands and they all came here to see me.'”
• Kansas City Chiefs
W-L: 6-7 | Playoff chance: 16 percent | Super Bowl chance: 1 percent
Andy Reid’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 from Kansas City’s 31-yard line with 10:22 remaining in a 10-10 game affirmed what Mahomes and Chris Jones had already made clear through their play: Kansas City was going to go down swinging. Every unnecessary hit Mahomes took felt necessary under the circumstances. Jones, known to pick his spots as a pass rusher, played all-out much of the time. Still, it was not enough.
Two weeks ago, we argued the Chiefs might be better off missing the playoffs if it meant the team would make meaningful improvements. We are much closer to seeing if that happens than anyone could have anticipated.
2. The Bears dropped from the NFC’s No. 1 seed into the seventh slot, but their playoff chances barely flinched. Here’s what really changed in Week 14.
A competitive, hard-fought game between the Bears and Packers in the cold at Lambeau Field, with both teams flexing their muscle on the ground, the game coming down to one final, frantic play. Sounds like a victory for the NFL, doesn’t it? It was a victory for the Packers as well, 28-21, after Keisean Nixon picked off Caleb Williams’ final pass in the end zone.
The game bumped Green Bay from sixth to second in the NFC, dropping Chicago from first to seventh. With seven NFC teams bunched between 8-10 victories and none with more than that, the likelihood for a turbulent landing appears high.
The table below shows just how relatively little the Packers’ victory over the Bears — who will host the rematch in less than two weeks — meant for either team’s playoff chances. Pittsburgh, Houston, Detroit, Jacksonville and even idle Carolina were double-digit percentage winners.
The chances for Indy and Baltimore plummeted by more than 30 percentage points apiece, prompting John Harbaugh, coach of the 6-7 Ravens, to remind his team and the public that the season is not yet finished (it just felt finished for the Ravens on this day).
3. The Vikings won 31-0 with J.J. McCarthy tossing three touchdown passes! What will the narrative of the week be now?
When was the last time the Vikings needed this kind of victory, this early in a regular season? While you comb the archives for an answer, let’s remind ourselves to avoid embracing any narratives too tightly. Even the positive ones.
McCarthy was better Sunday, without question. He completed third-down passes for first downs when needing 8, 9 and 12 yards, all on the same drive, and also converted a third-and-6 via scramble. He also completed a touchdown pass on fourth-and-goal from the 2, a play coach Kevin O’Connell lauded as one of his two favorites from this game, noting the QB’s decisiveness.
In a change from recent form, the offense did its part in victory, accounting for 14.1 EPA, compared to 15.7 for the defense and 1.2 for the special teams, per TruMedia. The offense took over with 7:53 left in regulation and ran out the clock, only the 42nd time an NFL team has expired the final 7:30 or more while leading since 2000, counting playoffs.
This type of victory was badly needed for the way it changed the subject in Minnesota away from what ails McCarthy during this down season.
Minnesota was running out of QB narratives and should not promote a new one now. Did we miss any below?
• Rookie readiness (2024): Early maturity and clean installs masquerade as evidence for readiness.
• Injury upside (early 2025): The knee injury that sidelined McCarthy as a rookie did not stop him from developing “invisible habits” to accelerate his development.
• Return to health in spring (April 2025): That invisible growth morphs into functional readiness ahead of the Vikings’ OTA sessions.
• OTAs/minicamp chemistry (May/June 2025): Chemistry and absorption of coaching become validation.
• Joint-practice growth (August 2025): Controlled success (best day of training camp) justified minimized preseason reps.
• Caution, please (September 2025): O’Connell encouraged patience after McCarthy struggled early in the season.
• Mechanical urgency (October/November 2025): Optimism gave way to mechanical urgency and public tension as McCarthy struggled with injuries and poor performance while the losses piled up.
• Schematic resignation: The 26-0 shutout Minnesota absorbed with rookie Max Brosmer subbing for McCarthy (concussion) led O’Connell to suggest he needed to simplify the offense.
O’Connell resisted gloating after hammering the Commanders. He acknowledged that leaning into the run game put pressure on the offense to convert more third downs. The offense converted a season-high 55 percent of its third-down chances Sunday. It might not next time, but whatever happens at Dallas in Week 15 is going to set the next narrative. That game is in the Sunday night spotlight.
“There is nothing wrong with the truth,” a coach from another team said. “J.J. is on the sixth start of his career, and it’s going to take 30 til we know, so we don’t have to bury anyone or crown them, either.”
Amen.
4. For Washington, losing 31-0 at Minnesota while losing a 35-year-old tight end can signal one thing.
It sounds flip, but as a general rule in the NFL, old plus bad equals fired — especially if the combination persists too long.
The Commanders, NFC Championship Game participants under first-year coach Dan Quinn last season, are just getting started under their current leadership. But their eighth consecutive defeat has dropped Quinn to 15-15 in his tenure, and losses as lopsided as this one can put any coach in peril.
The Commanders surely wish they had not run it back this season with mostly the same aging roster. They’ll need to add and develop younger players while figuring out how to keep their best young talent, quarterback Jayden Daniels, in the lineup every week.
The table below ranks NFL teams this season by the difference in their rankings for snap-weighted age and point margin per game. The difference between the Commanders’ age rank (first, or oldest) and their point margin rank (27th) is the NFL’s most extreme in the old-and-bad direction. That is not sustainable.
Washington’s modern-day “Over the Hill Gang” cannot compare to the original one.
George Allen and the 1971 Washington Redskins initially resisted the “Over the Hill Gang” label.
“We’re not old,” the Hall of Fame coach would say. “We’re experienced.”
Sonny Jurgensen (37), Jack Pardee (35), Boyd Dowler (34), Richie Petitbon (33), Ron McDole (32), Myron Pottios (32), Billy Kilmer (32), Tommy Mason (32), Pat Fischer (31), Clifton McNeil (31), Chris Hanburger (30), Ray Schoenke (30) and Charley Taylor (30) all started games for that first Allen-coached Washington team, which finished with a 9-4-1 record.
Allen’s teams got even older through most of the 1970s but never had a losing record during his 1971-77 tenure. Some of those relative old-timers became beloved players on a perennial playoff team that reached the Super Bowl in the 1972 season.
The current Washington team, renamed twice since Allen’s time, is somehow older than Allen’s 1971 Over The Hill Gang when calculating average ages for non-specialists appearing in at least one game, per Pro Football Reference.
Sonny Jurgensen, left, with coach George Allen in 1971. (Focus on Sport / Getty Images)
Allen’s teams were functionally older because they leveraged strong performances from so many seasoned players. But the 2025 team claims five of the seven oldest non-specialists on these rosters: Josh Johnson, Von Miller, Nick Bellore, Bobby Wagner and Ertz.
The season-ending injury Ertz suffered against the Vikings drew attention to a roster overhaul that surely must be coming. Quinn has already demoted his defensive coordinator, taking over play-calling duties himself. That shows a level of urgency beyond what a coach might typically feel after reaching a championship game in his only previous season.
5. Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft are on a collision course toward the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but the math is against them going in together.
The prospect of Belichick and Kraft reuniting on the stage in Canton as part of the Hall’s 2026 class surely appeals to television executives and others with a stake in a compelling ceremony.
I’ll be surprised if they both go in together — not because I know anything as one of the 50 selectors, but rather because I learned so much from what happened last year under new rules for picking coaches, contributors and senior players.
The process requires the Hall’s 50 selectors to vote for three candidates from a pool of one coach (Belichick this year), one contributor (Kraft) and three players who have been retired for at least 25 years (Roger Craig, Ken Anderson, L.C. Greenwood). The candidate receiving the most votes earns enshrinement. Up to two others can also make it if they secure votes from 80 percent of selectors.
It’s a zero-sum game.
Fifty voters with three votes apiece means there are 150 votes to go around.
Belichick, as a six-time Super Bowl-winning coach, could command 50 votes. If that happens, the remaining four candidates will be fighting over the remaining 100 available votes. Players generally have an easier time than coaches or contributors, unless a Belichick type is on the ballot. Kraft, for all his accomplishments, is up against what I see as an unusually strong class of senior players, led by Craig and Anderson.
Last year, only Sterling Sharpe earned enshrinement from that process, leaving Mike Holmgren, Ralph Hay, Maxie Baughan and Jim Tyrer on the outside. Holmgren, in particular, seemed to have strong support but still fell short.
This year, Belichick is a stronger candidate than Holmgren. Kraft is a stronger candidate than Hay. Craig, Anderson and Greenwood are stronger candidates than Baughan — not just in my opinion, but also in the estimation of Pro Football Reference’s Hall of Fame Monitor (Tyrer’s candidacy faced other challenges).
6. Two-minute drill: Good weeks for Shough and Sanders
Mark Schlereth, the NFL analyst and former offensive lineman with Super Bowl rings from Washington and Denver, called Shough the NFL’s best rookie quarterback this season. That was before Shough helped lead New Orleans to an upset victory at Tampa Bay in Week 14.
More might be coming around to that opinion after Sunday.
“I do not want to get ahead, but this guy can ball!” retired former Saints safety Tyrann Matthew posted. “Give him the keys and let him do his thing!!”
Though Shough’s overall passing numbers were modest on a day when driving rain factored heavily, he ran for touchdowns of 34 and 13 yards in a divisional victory against an opponent with much on the line. Shough completed fourth-quarter passes to convert third downs of 10, 8, 6 and 5 yards. He operated effectively from cramped pockets as New Orleans ran down the clock.
The 34-yard touchdown was on a designed run, showing off mobility New Orleans generally hasn’t had at the position without Taysom Hill behind center as a gadget player.
Shough became one of 14 quarterbacks since 2000 to score a touchdown on a designed rush of at least 30 yards, per TruMedia. Lamar Jackson has six of them. Colin Kaepernick, Kordell Stewart and Cam Newton have two apiece since 2000. Shough’s 13-yard touchdown required an unlikely escape from trouble in the pocket, with three Buccaneers defenders diving at his feet after Shough spun away and sprinted to the pylon, diving underneath a defender to get across the goal line.
• Sanders bests Watson: Sanders, making his third NFL start, pulled off something Deshaun Watson never managed in 19 starts with the Browns: He passed for at least 300 yards and at least three touchdowns in a single game. Joe Flacco has done it three times, Jameis Winston has done it twice and Jacoby Brissett has done it once for the Browns since the team acquired Watson. Sanders, Flacco and Winston each did it once in their first three starts as a Brown.
• Bucs flagging: A Tampa Bay offense that ranked seventh in EPA per play through Week 6 has hit hard times. Tampa Bay ranked 26th from Weeks 7-11, before quarterback Baker Mayfield injured his non-throwing shoulder in a Week 12 defeat to the Rams. The offense ranks 29th since that injury, losing two of three, including as an 8.5-point favorite against the Saints.
• Big day for new Seahawks vets: Seattle’s 10th victory in 13 games this season, 37-9 at Atlanta, gives the Seahawks a 20-10 mark under second-year coach Mike Macdonald. That is tied with the Rams for seventh-best in the league.
The victory Sunday showcased recent veteran additions. Rashid Shaheed, acquired via in-season trade from New Orleans, scored on a 100-yard kickoff return. Cooper Kupp, signed as a free agent from the Rams, caught a touchdown pass. Sam Darnold, signed in free agency from Minnesota, tossed three scoring passes. DeMarcus Lawrence, signed in free agency from Dallas, forced a fumble.
In the rookie newcomer category, defensive back Nick Emmanwori blocked a kick, collected a sack and intercepted a pass. He’s the first player since former Cardinals Pro Bowl safety Adrian Wilson (2010) to accomplish all three in the same game. Hall of Famer Julius Peppers is the only other player to check all three boxes in one game since 2000, per TruMedia.
Emmanwori, at 6 feet 3 and 220 pounds, is flashing the potential to be a versatile star defender. He has logged 54 snaps as an edge rusher, 161 as an inside linebacker, 275 as a slot corner, five as an outside corner and 11 at various safety spots.
Emmanwori is one of five players this season with at least 200 snaps at slot corner, 100 snaps at inside linebacker and 50 snaps as an edge rusher. Derwin James, Kyle Hamilton, Tre’von Moehrig and Jeremy Chinn are the others.
• Rams atop NFC: A case can be made that the Rams have their best team of the Sean McVay era. That case was a little tougher to make last week, when they surprisingly lost at Carolina, but their 45-17 victory over Arizona was more representative of their season.
The Rams put up 530 yards on the Cardinals, scoring touchdowns on four consecutive possessions at one point. It was the first time since the 1954 Rams of Norm Van Brocklin and Elroy “Crazy Legs” Hirsch that the team finished a non-overtime game with at least 30 first downs, 530 yards and no turnovers, per Pro Football Reference.
• What about Miami? The Dolphins are 4-0 since firing general manager Chris Grier. They rank 10th in offensive EPA per play and fifth on the defensive side over that span (they were 25th on offense and 27th on defense to that point).
The schedule has played a role since a 30-13 victory over Buffalo in Week 10, with subsequent victories over Washington, New Orleans and the Jets. Miami will have to beat better teams to salvage a winning record against a finishing stretch featuring the Steelers (road), Bengals (home), Buccaneers (home) and Patriots (road).
• Not-so-special Falcons: There are many reasons the Falcons have secured their eighth consecutive losing season. The big-picture risks the organization has taken in its roster building get much of the attention. Special teams issues could be a lower-profile spinoff.
Atlanta ranks last in EPA (-31.6) on special teams plays other than field goals. That includes 31st in EPA on punt returns (-16.3) and 32nd in EPA per opponent kick return (-0.72). The 100-yard kick return allowed against Seattle (-5.7 EPA) produced the second-largest negative swing for the Falcons on those plays. A muffed punt the Jets recovered at the Atlanta 2-yard line last week was the costliest.
• Draft hunting: The Titans’ victory over the Cleveland Browns helped the Giants move into position for the first pick in the 2026 draft as the order stands now. The table below shows the current top 10, with the Falcons having traded what would now be the ninth pick to the Rams.
The Athletic’s projection model gives the Raiders a 44 percent chance at earning the top pick, followed by the Titans (21 percent), Jets (10 percent), Browns (8 percent) and Giants (8 percent).