Troy Renck: No disrespect to the wise guys, but what the (bleep)? The Broncos won their 10th straight game Sunday, leaving footprints on the Raiders, and they are an underdog to the Packers? Huh? The Broncos boast an 11-game home winning streak, and they are not favored against a Green Bay team that lost to the Cleveland Browns? Come again? For the second time this season, the Broncos have been told they are not yet among the Who’s Who of the NFL. They are not a Who, but a What? As in what the (bleep)? It is one thing to be doubted against the Chiefs, but is Denver as a home underdog — 1.5 to 2.5 points depending on the book — against the Packers the season’s ultimate sign of disrespect?
Sean Keeler: As I’m typing this within sneezing distance of a casino, my nose tells me that the books must want more money on the Broncos. And with lines like that? They’re going to get it, my friend. Like, a lot of it. Although I also get where they’re coming from — since 2019, the Packers are 8-3-1 during the regular season in games played west of Omaha. And Green Bay QB Jordan Love is toting a ridiculous 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio away from home this year.
Renck: Gambling lines are not set to lose money. They spur action, and this game may be a pick ’em by Sunday. But the line is a punch in the face to the Broncos, any way you look at it. This marks only the seventh time a team with at least a 10-game home winning streak has been a home underdog. Denver won in this spot in October when the Chiefs were 3.5-point favorites. But that was the Chiefs, who had won 18 of their previous 20 games against the Broncos. The Packers are 4-1-1 on the road this season, with a loss to the Browns and a tie with Dallas. Sure, they have won four straight games. Big deal. The Broncos haven’t lost since Sept. 21. The last time teams with a 10-game winning streak were underdogs occurred in 2019 (Ravens) and 2020 (Chiefs) when both were sitting starters in the final week of the season. Denver deserves better.
Keeler: The Broncos do, but I wouldn’t take it personally. And I’d expect this line to wiggle a bit over the coming days as the cash comes in. Smart cookies already know better. The Packers hate — HATE, HATE, HATE, HAAAAATE — playing a Mile High. Broncos Country has hosted the Cheeseheads eight different times since the AFC-NFC merger. The Broncos have won seven, right? And five of those meetings were decided by nine points or more. Average score of those games: Broncos 21, Pack 12. This one ought to be closer.
Renck: History doesn’t matter unless it does. Playing at altitude is a thing, regardless of the season. The Packers are 1-7 all-time in Denver. For that reason, in a game of evenly matched teams, they should not be favored. And the Broncos have regained their home-field advantage with the crowd roaring again as it did during 2015. About that season. The undefeated Broncos hosted the undefeated Packers in prime time, and embarrassed Aaron Rodgers (14-for-22, 77 yards) in a 29-10 laugher. It became a touchstone game in a championship season. This is not the first time Green Bay has become intertwined with Broncos greatness. Denver won its first title, outlasting the heavily-favored Packers 31-24 in Super Bowl XXXII. A win Sunday will continue the thread of Green Bay contributing to Broncos’ special seasons.
Keeler: With apologies to my CSU peeps, big swaths of orange and green don’t look all that great together. Can’t wait for Sunday afternoon, when 80,000 Broncomaniacs won’t hesitate to help get Bo Nix over the line to 12 wins. That said, respect from the sports books has to be earned, dude. While their road wins at Philly and at Houston get a little bigger by the week, the Broncos have yet, as of Week 14, to beat a team with a winning record at home. (Thanks, Travis Kelce.) But with Empower Field tussles against the Pack (9-3-1), Jaguars (9-4) and Chargers (8-4) looming, Sean Payton and Co. are going to get at least three cracks to send a message to the rest of the NFL.
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