NFL Power Rankings entering Week 15: Why can't the Texans make a run in a flawed and weird AFC?

AFC East: Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Commanders

NFC North: Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Rams | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks

The common perception is that a team needs an elite quarterback and powerhouse offense to win a Super Bowl. While that’s the ideal path, it’s not the only one. We don’t need to look too far in the past to find a champion that wasn’t in that mold.

We like to remember the 2024 Eagles as an offensive power because Saquon Barkley had a historic season, but they were first in defensive DVOA and just 13th in offensive DVOA. It was a champion founded on a fantastic defense, even if that might not be the Eagles’ legacy.

The question for the Houston Texans is if their offense can be good enough for a deep playoff run. Because there’s no question the defense is of championship quality. Houston is first in the NFL in yards allowed, points allowed and EPA (expected points added) allowed per play and second in defensive DVOA behind the Seahawks. Anyone who has seen the Texans wreck Josh Allen (career high eight sacks taken) and Patrick Mahomes (career low 19.8 passer rating) the past few weeks would likely vote Houston as the best defense in the NFL. But the offense is 24th in DVOA and also 24th in EPA per play, and an offense that subpar might be a problem. But look around at a truly weird AFC: Everyone has a flaw this season. The Texans’ defense might be the most bankable asset in the AFC playoffs, other than Allen. And we saw what happened when Houston faced Allen in Week 12.

There seems to be a good chance we get a somewhat random Super Bowl matchup this season. It doesn’t look like there are any great teams. It might come down to which team gets hot. There aren’t many teams hotter than the Texans, who have won five in a row, with four coming against good teams (Jaguars, Bills, Colts, Chiefs) behind a defense that is battering opponents. They are giving off a bit of a vibe similar to the 2015 Broncos, who won Super Bowl 50 with a superior defense after Peyton Manning hit the wall that season. In a season defined by parity, especially in the AFC, a Super Bowl team that started 3-5 and has a bottom 10 offense might actually be fitting.

Here are the power rankings after Week 14 of the NFL season:

Congrats, Raiders. You finally reached the bottom. The Titans have at least been frisky for most of the past few weeks, and it paid off with a win at Cleveland. The Raiders continue to look worse every week. The last time the Raiders had a competitive game they could be proud of was Nov. 2, when they lost to the Jaguars in overtime. They might not play another competitive game for the rest of the season either. What a bad organization.

Not that beating the Browns is worthy of a parade, but the Titans got their first legitimate win of the season (the first win, over the Cardinals, was the flukiest win of the NFL this season and maybe this decade). The one downside is draft positioning. According to Tankathon, the Titans went from first in the draft order to third with the win. The Giants would pick first if the season ended today. But there’s a lot of time for that to be settled, and winning is good for the Titans.

The Cardinals haven’t been blown out too often, but Sunday’s 45-17 loss to the Rams was ugly. The Cardinals might not really be the fourth-worst team in the NFL, but it is also hard to give the benefit of the doubt to a team that has lost 10 of 11 games, even if many of those losses were in close games. It has been a horribly disappointing season for a Cardinals team that seemed to be making strides under Jonathan Gannon.

The Giants don’t want to be 2-11, but the front office had to be happy to see themselves sitting with the first pick of the NFL Draft with four games to go. That would put them in an advantageous position, though there isn’t some Myles Garrett-level No. 1 pick in the draft class. The Giants could entertain offers from teams looking for a quarterback though. It’s a lost season but having another high first-round pick is a good consolation.

The Jets had been playing better, but losing by 24 at home to the Dolphins is a reminder of how bad they are. There were “Sell the team” chants during the loss, but it’s not like owner Woody Johnson believes he’s the problem. There’s not much to look forward to until the offseason, and the last four weeks might get really rough with quarterbacks Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor dealing with injuries.

The Saints have road wins over the Panthers and Buccaneers, the top two teams in the division. Plenty of teams down in this portion of the rankings don’t have any quality wins. The organization, which has refused to admit it needs a rebuild, shouldn’t be fooled into thinking that they’re closer than they are due to those wins. But they might. At very least, it’s a great sign that the team is fighting hard still in Kellen Moore’s first season.

The Browns didn’t truly “move up” in the rankings after a home loss to the Titans, but the Jets surely had to move down after whatever they were doing on Sunday. So the Browns got an undeserved bump. For Browns fans, Sunday should have felt like a win. Shedeur Sanders continues to show promise. It’s too early to say if he’s the answer, but he’s closer than almost every other fifth-round quarterback we’ve seen. And the loss helped out the Browns’ draft position, too.

Players should play if they’re healthy enough, but Washington should make an exception for Jayden Daniels. Seeing him get injured again on Sunday and leave the game was a sign that this isn’t his season and shutting him down is best for everyone involved. Having him suffer another injury when the team is 3-10 would be egregiously bad leadership. This is a completely lost season for a very good player. Just start again in 2026.

Getting a Thursday night game in Week 15 might be the worst thing for Falcons coach Raheem Morris, who is clearly on the hot seat. The team is falling apart, and their season looks even worse because the NFC South was there for the taking. Now Atlanta gets three hours on a national broadcast at Tampa Bay, with everyone paying attention to how they’ve bungled things. “Our fan base deserves a winner,” Morris said. “The only thing you can do is try to go give them the best effort you can on Thursday night.”

J.J. McCarthy had a good game. He had 163 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. It doesn’t mean that he has arrived, but it’s a more promising step than we’ve typically seen from him this season. The Vikings’ season is lost, and the rest of it has to be spent figuring out if McCarthy can be a viable starter in 2026. Sunday’s performance gives the team some hope.

We have to rank the Colts for what they are now, with major quarterback issues the rest of the way. And this ranking might be too high for that. Perhaps Riley Leonard can keep the Colts afloat (if he’s healthy, that is), but that’s a long shot. If a 7-1 start fizzles into missing the playoffs due to a losing streak and then Daniel Jones’ injury, it’s a depressing turn. And it’s not like Jones’ injury doesn’t have a major impact on the Colts in 2026, too.

The Bengals were on the verge of beating the Bills — they outplayed Buffalo on the road for three-plus quarters — and the Ravens’ continued implosion was a positive for Cincinnati too. Then Joe Burrow threw a pick-6 to Bills corner Christian Benford, who made a remarkable play on a blitz, and the Bills pulled away after that. We’ll see if the Bengals continue their momentum now that their slim playoff hopes (3% according to The Athletic’s projections) are practically over.

The Dolphins can get back to .500 with a win over the Steelers next week. Miami has beaten a lot of bad teams, which means they shouldn’t be ranked any higher than this, but it’s still a remarkable rebound from a 1-6 start. They’re doing this all with Tua Tagovailoa being a low-volume passer, which is weird. He hasn’t thrown for more than 173 yards in any game in Miami’s four-game winning streak, but Miami has found other ways to succeed. Is Mike McDaniel safe for 2026 already?

The Ravens are somehow a bad team. Losing to the Bengals and Steelers in back-to-back home games leaves no doubt that even if the Ravens somehow win the AFC North, there’s just nothing better coming for this team. They’re 21st in EPA (expected points added) per play on offense and a matching 21st in EPA per play allowed on defense. It’s a strong organization with a great quarterback so the odds they bounce back in 2026 are strong, but the best outcome for this Ravens team seems to be a division title with a record barely above .500 and a quick playoff exit.

Carolina had to perk up at Tampa Bay’s home loss on Sunday. That gives them a better shot to win the division by simply splitting the two remaining games against the Bucs. The Panthers are up and down and still have a tough game remaining against Seattle in Week 17, but they’re in the mix. That’s a positive outcome for this season, no matter how it turns out.

The Buccaneers hadn’t had a loss to a team currently under .500 before Sunday. But it’s hard to take them too seriously anymore after a 24-20 home loss to the Saints, who had won only two games this season before beating Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield’s play has really slipped since early in the season, and injuries have to be a factor in that. The Buccaneers are still favorites to win the NFC South but it’s getting tougher to trust them to finish the season strong.

Given all the negativity surrounding the Steelers a week ago, Sunday’s win at Baltimore had to be one of the most satisfying of Mike Tomlin’s career. Will the noise about Tomlin and the team parting ways quiet if they win the AFC North, which they are favored to do now (75.3% chance via DVOA)? Probably not. But Sunday was a reminder that he is still a pretty good coach. The Steelers are a very flawed team, but one with an inside track at a division title.

The overreaction to the Chiefs’ season will be fierce. People have been dying to dunk on the NFL’s current dynasty, and now is their chance. No, the Chiefs don’t need a full rebuild. They just haven’t won close games. Kansas City is still the No. 7 team in DVOA this season after Sunday’s loss, ahead of teams like Denver, Buffalo, Philadelphia and New England. Haters will get in their licks now. Level-headed people will understand it’s just an unlucky season for a team that’s still good.

The Cowboys technically moved up in the rankings, but that’s artificial because the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Colts had to move behind them and others this week. Still, Dallas is playing at a near playoff level lately, and a loss at a good Detroit team doesn’t change that much. But starting 3-5-1 put the Cowboys in a place in which they couldn’t afford any losses, and now their playoff dream is all but dead.

Sunday changed everything in the AFC South. The Colts lost Daniel Jones, and the Jaguars picked up a critical win. It’s hard to watch the Jaguars and Texans and believe Jacksonville is the better team right now (more on the Texans in a bit) but they do lead the division. The AFC South might come down to whether the Jaguars can beat the Broncos or the Texans can beat the Chargers, because the other remaining games for both teams are all winnable.

Jalen Hurts had two interceptions in the first 13 weeks of the season. He had never thrown four interceptions in an NFL game. But he did on Monday night, with the fourth pick coming in overtime to clinch a loss to the Chargers. On a night that Saquon Barkley finally broke out with his second 100-yard game, Philadelphia’s offense still scored only one touchdown. Philadelphia’s defense is still good enough to carry the team to some wins in the playoffs. The offense simply isn’t good enough at the moment for Philly to have more than a very brief stay in the postseason. And 14 weeks into the season, that’s unlikely to be fixed.

Here are the Lions’ results since the start of October: win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win. The win over the Cowboys hinted at their potential again, but it’s hard to rank them much higher than this when they haven’t put together a two-game winning streak in more than two months. Also, Detroit’s ability to make a deep playoff run probably relies on them not catching any cold-weather games, given how much worse they are in outdoor games. The Lions are a good team but it’s hard to talk yourself into a Super Bowl run for them.

The Chargers have their issues. The offensive line allowed Justin Herbert to get pounded all night by the Eagles’ pass rush, resulting in the offense scoring just one touchdown. But Herbert did just enough, and the defense was fantastic as it picked off Jalen Hurts four times, including the game-winner in overtime. Had the Chargers’ offensive line stayed remotely healthy, this might have been the best team in football. As it stands, it’s still a very well-coached team with a star at quarterback. In a wide-open AFC, that might be enough to make a run.

The 49ers seemingly had three difficult games to end the season: at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks. Daniel Jones’ injury affects the NFC playoff race too, because if Indianapolis can’t magically find a quarterback down the stretch, that game becomes a lot easier for the 49ers. So would their path to a wild-card spot, which is pretty remarkable given their injuries through the season.

We’re looking at the very real possibility of the AFC playoffs beginning without Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. But can Josh Allen and the Bills take advantage of that? They were on upset watch again for most of Sunday against the Bengals. Allen, who is up to 34 total touchdowns (22 passing, 12 rushing) this season, gives them a chance against anyone. It’s just hard to depend on everything else around him.

This is a big jump for the Texans, but they pass the eye test of a team that is peaking at the right time. The defense continues to be fantastic, holding Patrick Mahomes to a 42.4% completion percentage and a 19.8 passer rating, the lowest marks in a game for his career. Houston’s offense is inconsistent, but there’s no complete team in the AFC. Houston’s defense is the most reliable unit in the conference.

Maybe there will be a time in which the Bears get exposed and move way down in the rankings, but not after a 28-21 loss at Green Bay that was decided in the last minute. And not less than two weeks after a decisive win at the Eagles. For now, it was just a competitive loss to a good team, which wasn’t a bad outcome for a Bears team that had no signature win this season before beating the Eagles. Let’s see how the Week 16 rematch against the Packers goes.

Hey, remember a few weeks ago when there was a weird groundswell to put Matt LaFleur on the hot seat? How cute. LaFleur never deserved that treatment, and now the Packers have consecutive wins over the Lions and Bears to get back to first place in the NFC North. Packers at Broncos is a fascinating Week 15 matchup between two very good teams that still have some questions.

It’s hard to believe but true: The Patriots can clinch the AFC East title with three games to go. If New England beats Buffalo on Sunday, the Patriots will have a three-game lead and own the tiebreaker due to a sweep, so the division race would be over. The Patriots are still fairly low in the advanced metrics despite their record — 14th in total DVOA, 10th in offense and 25th in defense — but this has been a wildly successful season no matter how it turns out.

The Broncos might need the Patriots to lose on Sunday to the Bills. Because there aren’t many other difficult games remaining for New England, and the Broncos have four tough ones left: vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers. The good news for the Broncos is they clinched the common opponents tiebreaker (second tiebreaker after conference record for non-divisional teams) over the Patriots with a win over the Raiders, a team New England lost to in Week 1.

The Seahawks’ 37-9 win over Atlanta brought Seattle’s road record to 6-1 and also strengthened their claim as the best team in the NFL. That spot still goes to the Rams, but it’s a 1A and 1B situation atop the rankings. The gap between those two teams and everyone else continues to grow. If Seattle beats a Daniel Jones-less Colts team at home on Sunday, that sets up a massive Week 16 Thursday night showdown against the Rams. And that rematch is in Seattle.

The Rams put up 530 yards and 45 points against the Cardinals, which is how a No. 1 team should look. Margin of victory doesn’t matter in the standings but it is a pretty good indicator of which teams have staying power and which are just getting by for now. The Seahawks lead the NFL with a +161 point differential, the Rams are second at +152 and no other team is above +110. The loss at Carolina wasn’t great, but it happens and the Rams are as good as anyone this season. They do have a tricky game vs. Detroit on Sunday, four days before the NFL’s regular season matchup of the year at Seattle.

NFL Power Rankings entering Week 15: Why can’t the Texans make a run in a flawed and weird AFC?

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