In a prime-time Sunday night showdown, the Houston Texans dealt a significant blow to the Kansas City Chiefs’ dynasty and reign over the AFC. Before the end of the fourth quarter, fans filed out of GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, and the Chiefs fell below .500 in December for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. 

The Chiefs’ Week 14 loss is a glaring lapse in the franchise’s fall from the NFL mountaintop, but they tumbled into this moment with clear signs of decline through the first three quarters of the season.

While some will point the finger at Patrick Mahomes, his pass-catchers have let him down quite a bit this season. ESPN’s Nate Taylor noted that the Chiefs’ pass-catchers are tied for second in drops with 24 this year.

In crunch time against the Texans, Mahomes’ top targets couldn’t hold on to the ball to extend drives. Travis Kelce’s bobble turned into an interception. 

Keep in mind that Mahomes is currently playing without his starting tackles, Josh Simmons and Jawaan Taylor, and Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith, not an ideal situation against any team, let alone the No. 1 defense with two Pro Bowlers who have double-digit sack totals.

Defensively, Kansas City is seventh in scoring and ninth in total yards, but it ranks 26th in third-down conversion rate. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has struggled to get off the field in crucial moments, often allowing big plays on third-and-long. 

Furthermore, the Chiefs blitz at the third-highest rate–yet they’re in the middle of the pack in pressure rate (21 percent) and tied for 23rd in sacks (25). Chris Jones isn’t the same All-Pro player from years past, and George Karlaftis isn’t dominant on the edge.

For the first time in a long time, the Chiefs haven’t been able to solve or mask their issues on both sides of the ball. Their reign as AFC West champions will end after nine years, and they need help to reach the playoffs. 

Here’s a breakdown of Kansas City’s remaining schedule, what it’ll take to qualify for the postseason, and a final verdict on whether the club will play meaningful games in January.

Chiefs Remaining Schedule

Chargers Chiefs Football

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Week 15: Vs. ChargersWeek 16: At TennesseeWeek 17: Vs. DenverWeek 18: At Las Vegas

The Chiefs have two home games and a couple of road games left on their schedule. This week, they’ll host the Chargers, who will be on a short turnaround following a Monday night contest with the Philadelphia Eagles. In Week 1, Los Angeles beat Kansas City in Sao Paulo, Brazil. 

Like the Chiefs, the Chargers are without their starting tackles. So, the quarterback who’s under less duress will have the best shot to win that game. If the Chiefs lose, forget about all their long-shot playoff scenarios. 

On the road, Kansas City should walk all over the Titans, who are 2-11, though it shouldn’t look ahead to Denver while playing in that game.

The Chiefs will look to even the season series with the Broncos in their home game finale. Denver is competing with the New England Patriots for home-field advantage in the playoffs, so this should be another competitive matchup.

Kansas City shut out Las Vegas at Arrowhead 31-0 in Week 7. The Raiders (2-11) could be in play for potential 2026 quarterback prospect Fernando Mendoza and may not have much left at this point.

The Chiefs’ division games are crucial in the final quarter of the season if they want to get a wild-card spot.

Help Chiefs Need to Make the 2025 Postseason

Texans Chiefs Football

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

According to The Athletic, the Chiefs have a 14 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they win out, their odds increase to 52 percent.

Kansas City can do its part for a 10-7 finish, but it would still need a few other teams to fall apart in the final four weeks. 

At 10th in the AFC, looking up, Kansas City can realistically surpass the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts and Chargers.

The Chiefs have beaten the Ravens and Colts, so if it’s a two-club record tie between those clubs, they would pull ahead because of the head-to-head matchups. The Colts are already free-falling, with three consecutive losses. They also lost starting quarterback Daniel Jones for the season.

Currently, Kansas City is behind Baltimore because it’s a three-club tie with the Miami Dolphins, which makes the conference records the tiebreaker. With another Miami loss, the Chiefs would pass the Ravens in the AFC playoff standings.

The Chargers are the toughest hurdle because they beat the Chiefs and have a perfect 4-0 division record, which is worth noting. If Kansas City beats Los Angeles in Week 15 and these teams finish with the same record, the clubs’ AFC West records would break the tie. If the Chiefs and Chargers finish with the same division record (4-2), their common opponents would determine the tiebreaker.

Except for Kansas City, the Chargers’ final opponents are .500 or better. After the Eagles and Chiefs within six days, they’ll go to Dallas, host Houston and finish in Denver. With Los Angeles’ banged-up offensive line, it could collapse, facing three defenses that rank within the top 10 in pressure rate over the next four weeks.

Texans Chiefs Football

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

As much as some want to write off the Chiefs, their playoff hopes remain alive thanks to the Colts’ current skid, coupled with their suboptimal quarterback situation, and the Chargers’ challenging remaining schedule. 

With rookie sixth-rounder Riley Leonard filling in for Jones, Indianapolis is likely to fall out of the playoff picture with the Seattle Seahawks (10-3), San Francisco 49ers (9-4), Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) and Texans left on its schedule.

Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert had surgery on his non-throwing hand and is slated to play Monday, but he’s taken 16 sacks over the last four weeks.

If the Chargers beat the Eagles, the Chiefs would need them to lose out and win their last four games to have a chance at the No. 2 spot in the AFC West and a wild-card playoff berth. 

If Los Angeles loses to Philadelphia, the Chiefs would be one game behind the Chargers with a win over them in Week 15. After that, another Los Angeles loss would open up several scenarios for the Chiefs to sneak into the playoffs.

That said, under head coach Jim Harbaugh, with Herbert healthy enough to play, it’s difficult to envision the Chargers having a full-on collapse even with a poor offensive line. Also, the Chiefs still have to play the Broncos, who are a better team top to bottom.

Kansas City is in must-win mode, and it may win most or all of its final games, but that may not be enough. With a mediocre finish, the Chargers will finish ahead of the Chiefs, keeping the reigning AFC champions out of the playoffs.

The Chiefs will need an offseason reset to usher in a new chapter in their dynasty.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.