NFL playoff picture: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs at serious risk of missing postseason after latest loss

Every game matters at this point in the season as teams fight for playoff position and chase division titles.

Here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks with Week 14 now in the books:

NFC

1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3): Up next — vs. Detroit Lions in Week 15
Notable odds: The Rams are essentially a lock to make the playoffs (98% odds on NFL.com), but they are still in a very tight race with the Seahawks and 49ers in the NFC West. The No. 1 seed isn’t a lock by any means but the Rams are the favorites, per The Athletic’s playoff odds, at 48%.

2. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1): Up next — At Denver Broncos in Week 15
Notable odds: The Packers, who entered Sunday’s game with 58% odds at The Athletic, are now massive favorites to win the NFC North at nearly 70%.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5): Up next — vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 15
Notable odds: Though they fell to the Chargers, the Eagles still have 93% odds to make the playoffs, via NFL.com. The top seed, however, is almost certainly out of reach.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6): Up next — vs. Atlanta Falcons on Thursday
Notable odds: The Buccaneers are locked in with the Panthers atop the NFC South standings, and have a 70% shot at making the playoffs, per NFL.com. A pair of games against the Panthers over the next month will be critical.

5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3): Up next — vs. Indianapolis Colts in Week 15
Notable odds: Though almost a lock to make the playoffs (The Athletic and NFL.com have them at 98%) the Seahawks still aren’t the favorite to win the NFC West.

6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4): Up next — vs. Tennessee Titans in Week 15
Notable odds: Strong playoff favorites at 94%, per The Athletic.

7. Chicago Bears (9-4): Up next — vs. Cleveland Browns in Week 15
Notable odds: The Bears fell out of the top spot in the NFC after losing to the Packers on Sunday, and now have a 65% shot of making the playoffs, per NFL.com. They have a 26% shot at walking away with the NFC North crown, according to The Athletic.

Still in the NFC picture

8. Detroit Lions (8-5): Up next — At Los Angeles Rams in Week 15
Notable odds: 51% to make the playoffs, per NFL.com. They have only a 6% chance to win the NFC North, per The Athletic.

9. Carolina Panthers (7-6): Up next — At New Orleans Saints in Week 15
Notable odds: The Panthers have a 30% chance to both make the playoffs and win their division after the Buccaneers’ latest loss, per The Athletic.

10. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1): Up next — vs. Minnesota Vikings in Week 15
Notable odds: 10% to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic and NFL.com. A victory over the Lions on TNF would have bumped the Boys up to 39%, according to NFL.com.

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (11-2): Up next — vs. Green Bay Packers in Week 15
Notable odds: The Broncos are a virtual lock to make the playoffs at 99%, per NFL.com, and they jumped the Patriots for the No. 1 seed in the AFC with their 10th straight win on Sunday afternoon.

2. New England Patriots (11-2): Up next — vs. Buffalo Bills in Week 15
Notable odds: With a clear edge over the Bills and a head-to-head victory, the Patriots are closing in on securing the AFC East title, at about 90% to win it, per The Athletic. Though they fell back, they still have the highest odds of anyone to grab the top seed in the AFC.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4): Up next — vs. New York Jets in Week 15
Notable odds: The Jags are the leaders in the AFC South, and are at 97% likely to make the postseason, per NFL.com.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6): Up next — vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 15
Notable odds: The Steelers aren’t done yet, and now lead their division after beating the Ravens on Sunday. Their odds of clinching a playoff berth rose to 70%, per The Athletic.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4): Up next — at Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15
Notable odds: The Chargers have a 76% shot at making the playoffs, via NFL.com, but they are still very much a long shot to catch the Broncos for the division title (15%, according to the Athletic).

6. Buffalo Bills (9-4): Up next — At New England Patriots in Week 15
Notable odds: While Buffalo’s chances at catching up to New England to win the division title are slim (11% according to The Athletic), the Bills are still very likely to qualify for the postseason, at 98%.

7. Houston Texans (8-5): Up next — vs. Arizona Cardinals in Week 15
Notable odds: The Texans’ odds to make the playoffs are up to 88% now with their win over the Chiefs, per NFL.com. The Athletic is more optimistic, giving Houston a 92% chance of making the postseason.

Still in the AFC picture

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-5): Up next — At Seattle Seahawks in Week 15
Notable odds: The Colts have just a 32% shot at making the playoffs now, per NFL.com, after their latest loss. Quarterback Daniel Jones suffered an Achilles injury, too, making things only more difficult for the franchise.

9. Baltimore Ravens (6-7): Up next — At Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15
Notable odds: With back-to-back losses, the Ravens have plummeted to bubble team status in the AFC hunt. They have 33% odds of making the postseason, according to NFL.com

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7): Up next — vs. Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15
Notable odds: Kansas City has a 11% chance to make the playoffs now, per NFL.com. If they fail to get in, it’ll be the first time in more than a decade that the Chiefs haven’t made the postseason.

Recently eliminated

Teams who were eliminated during Week 14

Washington Commanders (3-10)

Already eliminated

Teams who were already eliminated entering Week 14.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

NFL playoff picture: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs at serious risk of missing postseason after latest loss

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