FOXBORO, Mass. — Coach Mike Vrabel didn’t shy away from discussing what’s on the line as the New England Patriots return from their bye with a massive home game against the Buffalo Bills looming. Win, and the Patriots are AFC East champs.

“We’re just trying to play for the championship that we have available this week, and I think it’s a great testament to our players who have put us in this position to be able to do that,” Vrabel said.

With that on the line, here are 14 thoughts on the Patriots after 14 weeks of this incredible (and shocking) season:

1. Everyone knows how important Sunday’s game is. But it’s also worth acknowledging this beforehand: The Pats are still in great shape, even if they lose on Sunday.

Because of their easy schedule and the way they’ve taken care of business, New England would be fine after a loss, even if it feels seismic.

According to our playoff simulator (which is a ton of fun to play around with this time of year), the Patriots would still have a 75 percent chance of winning the division if the Bills come to Gillette Stadium and win. And even if they lose, the Pats would still have a 30 percent chance of getting the No. 1 seed and first-round bye.

All things considered, that’s a pretty great position to be in entering Week 16.

2. But also this: A win Sunday would be seismic. It’d be a changing of the guard, an official declaration that the AFC East goes through New England again.

The Bills have won five straight division titles. A sixth this season was supposed to be a cakewalk.

But if the Pats win Sunday and sweep the Bills, it would feel like a true statement that signals a lot more than the Patriots just taking advantage of an easy schedule.

3. I don’t think we’ve talked enough about the Patriots pass defense. Because for as good as the run defense was at the start of the year, it’s the pass defense that’s carrying them now.

Since Christian Gonzalez returned in Week 4 from a hamstring injury, the Patriots rank fifth in the NFL in EPA per play against the pass. They rank 16th since Week 4 against the run in that stat.

So don’t be confused — this is a defense that is better against the pass than the run.

4. Starting left guard Jared Wilson was back at practice Monday after being carted off the field in Week 12 against the Bengals. That’s a good sign that Wilson has a chance to play Sunday against the Bills, which would be a nice boost since Vederian Lowe will be at left tackle in place of Will Campbell.

5. Speaking of which, Campbell was in the locker room Monday and has been participating in meetings with the O-line even though he’s on injured reserve. That’s a positive sign and something Vrabel was hoping for as Campbell began his rehab.

He’s not eligible to return until the season finale, and even then, there’s no guarantee he’d play that week.

But it’s a good sign that the young left tackle is still working with his teammates as he rehabs his first significant injury.

6. Drake Maye’s MVP candidacy wasn’t helped on Sunday when Matthew Stafford threw for 281 yards (9.1 yards per attempt), three touchdowns and no interceptions in another big Los Angeles Rams win. Stafford’s 35 touchdowns are nine more than the next-closest quarterback (Dak Prescott). His four interceptions are the second-fewest among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts, behind only Jalen Hurts.

This is total conjecture, but in a two-person race, I think if the two quarterbacks are virtually tied, Stafford, 37, will get the nod, almost as a career achievement award, while voters (I am not one) assume Maye, 23, will have more opportunities to win.

7. It’s hard to draw parallels without knowing how this season will end, but chief among the reasons this Patriots season feels a bit like 2001 is the free-agent class.

Vrabel was part of that free-agent group in 2001 that helped turn around the franchise.

Now, this year’s free-agent group is doing much the same with these Patriots.

Teams don’t like to look to free agency for fixes very often, mostly because it’s expensive and it doesn’t usually work. But Robert Spillane, Harold Landry, Milton Williams, Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Morgan Moses, Garrett Bradbury and Khyiris Tonga have all played at or above the level you’d hope after their signings last spring.

8. There were legitimate reasons to be skeptical of the Patriots’ offseason signing of Landry, but he has quietly played very well this season.

Landry has a pressure rate of 13.5 percent, second on the Pats behind K’Lavon Chaisson, despite being on the field for the most pass-rush snaps of anyone on the team. He leads New England with 18 quarterback hits and 7.5 sacks.

9. Marcus Jones has been incredible as a punt returner for the Patriots, but the team could still use more out of its kick returns. The Pats rank 21st in the league in yards per return (25.3).

But after cycling through different options this season, their best candidate might be third-round pick Kyle Williams, who got the chance in the last two games.

Efton Chism doesn’t have the speed for the job, and for some reason, TreVeyon Henderson is only averaging 23.2 yards per return.

LIVE: Mike Vrabel Press Conference 12/8 https://t.co/Rch3KxCVxN

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 8, 2025

10. Everyone knows it, but it bears acknowledging nonetheless: Hunter Henry has been a good, reliable option for the Patriots this season.

He’s on pace for his best season in years. His 47 yards per game are his most since he was with the Chargers in 2019, and an astounding 33 of his 45 receptions have gone for a first down. That’s how you become a quarterback’s safety net.

11. With a running game that has struggled as much as New England’s, there isn’t just one culprit. But I put a lot of it on the O-line.

Pro Football Focus doesn’t have a single Patriots lineman in the top 60 when it comes to their run-blocking grade. (They have Morgan Moses at No. 62, then Mike Onwenu at No. 84).

12. It still blows me away how good Maye is on play-action. It’s a concept that usually takes young quarterbacks time to fully grasp, given they are turning their heads completely away from defenders.

But Maye is tied for third in yards per attempt on play-action (9.8), trailing only Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson.

13. As a head coach, Vrabel is 6-0 coming out of the bye. After Monday’s practice, he’s asking for urgency from his players.

“I know these guys got some rest, much-needed rest, but we’ve got to crank this thing back up,” he said.

14. Over the last four years, no team in the NFL was worse at home than the Patriots, who went 11-23 at Gillette Stadium from 2021 to 2024.

That provides some context for why Sunday in Foxboro will feel so special. There has been a lot of bad football here the last few years. Now the home fans get to watch their 11-2 team play for a division title against a division rival with the defending MVP at quarterback. It’s hard to find a more fun regular-season game than that.