DETROIT — The Detroit Lions are alive and well.

After a 44-30 win over the Dallas Cowboys, the Lions have a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs. But there’s work to do. The NFC is murky. Last week’s No. 1 seed, the Chicago Bears, fell to the No. 7 seed in just one week. There are a ton of moving parts here, with several of these teams set to face each other over the final four weeks.

Buckle up, folks, and enjoy the ride.

NFC standings and remaining games

1. Rams (10-3): vs. Detroit, at Seattle, at Atlanta, vs. Arizona.

2. Packers (9-3-1): at Denver, at Chicago, vs. Baltimore, at Minnesota.

3. Eagles (8-5): vs. Las Vegas, at Washington, at Buffalo, vs. Washington.

4. Buccaneers (7-6): vs. Atlanta, at Carolina, at Miami, vs. Carolina.

5. Seahawks (10-3): vs. Indianapolis, vs. Los Angeles (Rams), at Carolina, at San Francisco.

6. 49ers (9-4): vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis, vs. Chicago, vs. Seattle.

7. Bears (9-4): vs. Cleveland, vs. Green Bay, at San Francisco, vs. Detroit.

In the mix

8. Lions (8-5): at Los Angeles (Rams), vs. Pittsburgh, at Minnesota, at Chicago.

9. Panthers (7-6): at New Orleans, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Seattle, at Tampa Bay.

10. Cowboys (6-6-1): vs. Minnesota, vs. Los Angeles (Chargers), at Washington, at New York (Giants).

What a difference a week makes, huh? In our last playoff update, the Bears were atop the NFC at 9-3. A close loss to the Packers, though, dropped them from the No. 1 seed to No. 7. The Rams — the team the Lions will face this week — are back on top after a blowout victory over the Cardinals. The Packers, meanwhile, jumped from No. 6 to No. 2 after regaining the lead in the NFC North. The Nos. 3-5 seeds all remain unchanged, while the 49ers moved up a spot to No. 6.

What can the Lions control?

The Lions beating the Cowboys was a step in the right direction and effectively kept their playoff hopes alive. A loss would’ve dropped their chances to 12 percent. The way the Lions got it done — playing complementary football, creating takeaways when it mattered, scoring touchdowns when the Cowboys made a run — was just what you wanted to see. Instead, they’ve set themselves up for a spot if they take care of business.

Detroit has four games remaining: at Los Angeles, vs. Pittsburgh, at Minnesota and at Chicago. Winning out feels unrealistic, but if the Lions did, a division title isn’t out of the question. Right now, their division chances sit at just 6 percent. If they win out, that would rise to 54 percent.

A 3-1 finish in Detroit’s final four games would go a long way toward locking up a playoff spot. Let’s take a look at each of the four scenarios:

• 3-1 with a loss to the Rams: 95 percent.

• 3-1 with a loss to the Steelers: 98 percent.

• 3-1 with a loss to the Vikings: 96 percent.

• 3-1 with a loss to the Bears: 75 percent.

As you can see, a loss to the Bears stands out. You’re talking about a 20 percent difference in that scenario. And while 75 percent is still strong, other factors over the next few weeks could drop that number even more. The winner of that game could earn the final playoff spot, while the loser could see its season end there.

Of these paths, a 3-1 record with a loss to the Rams seems most realistic. But anything can happen over these final four weeks.

Week 15 scenarios

If the Lions beat the Rams, their playoff chances jump from 39 to 60 percent — a massive swing in the right direction, but a game that easily looms as the hardest remaining on Detroit’s schedule. If the Lions can get it done, it would lessen the blow of a trap-game loss to Pittsburgh or Minnesota. Detroit’s defense might be equipped to handle a Rams offense that uses 13 personnel more than any team in the league, but winning in Los Angeles will be easier said than done — especially after the loss of Brian Branch.

Here are some of the other important Week 15 games to watch:

Browns at Bears: Could this be considered a trap game? The Browns have a strong defense (No. 1 in defensive success rate), Shedeur Sanders is coming off an excellent game and the Bears could be looking ahead to the Packers rematch in Week 16. The Bears haven’t been in this spot — forced to win several meaningful games in December. Chicago should get it done against the Browns, but hey, stranger things have happened in this league.

Packers at Broncos: This feels like the hardest game remaining for the Packers. Denver (11-2) boasts one of the league’s top defenses and has won 10 in a row. A loss here would make things interesting, if the Bears and Lions win. The three teams would be separated by a game, with two of them playing one another in Week 16.

Titans at 49ers: The 49ers have a whopping eight NFC wins, which would serve as the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record as the Lions. The Lions only have five. Detroit most likely will need to finish a game better than the 49ers for that to be a realistic jump.

Colts at Seahawks: This game was a lot more intriguing before Daniel Jones tore his Achilles. The Colts look like they’re in trouble now, and they will travel to Seattle for this one. At 10-3, the Seahawks are tied with the Rams in the NFC West, but the Rams own the tiebreaker with a head-to-head win.

Panthers at Saints: This game is more about NFC South implications, but the Panthers losing would still create some breathing room as the team is directly behind the Lions.

Vikings at Cowboys: The Cowboys are a game and a half behind the Lions after Thursday’s game, but they do finish with winnable games (Vikings, Chargers, Commanders, Giants).

Bottom line

At this point, the Lions have a good sense of what needs to happen to make the playoffs. They can control quite a bit of the outcome with three wins in their final four games — particularly if one of those wins comes in Chicago in Week 18.

They have work to do. But their goals are within range.