The New England Patriots returned to Gillette Stadium after a Week 13 bye week on Monday, and did so in second place in the AFC with their 11 wins tied for the most in football.
A rapid turnaround under head coach Mike Vrabel now has the Patriots playing for the AFC East championship this weekend and in position to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2021. With sophomore quarterback Drake Maye in the MVP conversation and the discussion around the team now eyeing wins in January and February, their still remains concerns on the field that could prevent them from getting there.
Here are the three areas we’re watching for improvement coming out of the bye.
An elite Patriots run defense did not allow an opposing running back to eclipse the 50-yard mark for the first nine weeks of the season. But since Buccaneers running back Sean Tucker met that mark, a slump defending the ground game has continued over the past month.
Entering Week 14, New England’s run defense ranked last in success rate over their previous four games as they also have allowed an additional 1.3 yards per carry (4.9 total) compared to their first nine games. While a struggle to consistently build a wall up front has led to an uptick in yards allowed before contact, the downward trend in performance has also coincided with losing star defensive tackle Milton Williams (ankle) while nose tackle Khyiris Tonga suffered a chest injury in Week 12
The hope is the eventual return of Williams (injured reserve) and Tonga, who present in a limited capacity in Monday’s practice, in addition to a week off will lead to better results down the stretch.
On the other side of the football, the Patriots run game remains near the bottom of the league in most metrics despite a recent surge from rookie TreVeyon Henderson over the last month. New England’s struggles specifically in short yardage situations led to a handful of wrinkles (unbalanced line, six o-lineman, wildcat) from offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in a win over the Giants.
Now with a healthy one-two punch with Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots will look for better success on the ground down the stretch — where they could perhaps lean into more outside zone runs and get quarterback Drake Maye’s legs more involved in key situations.
A dreadful performance in Cincinnati — which included running eight plays inside the five-yard line and not scoring — highlighted the red zone struggles for the Patriots offense of late. On the year though, New England’s touchdown percentage (51.06) in the red zone ranks 25th in football while they rank 26th in success rate (37.7 percent) and 27th in EPA per play (-0.10).
As the easiest way to score in the red zone is to run the football, much of those struggles date back to the struggles on the ground — especially as New England entered Week 13 30th in rushing success rate in the red zone (34.8 percent). With big games and playoffs game around the corner, turning three points into seven will be key.
“You have to have positive plays. You can’t go backwards. You can’t have penalties that derail drives,” Mike Vrabel said. “Precision is critical – that space is limited. Things happen so much quicker down there. So, we’ll have to score, turn those opportunities into touchdowns and we’ll have to do a better job defensively when they do get down there.”
As Vrabel notes, the offense is not the only side of the ball that must improve in the red zone. New England’s defense ranks dead last in football allowing touchdowns on 73 percent of red zone trips in addition to ranking 30th in success rate (50 percent) and 31st in EPA/play (0.28). They have also allowed touchdowns on every goal-to-situation opposing offenses have faced this season.
Outside of star cornerback Christian Gonzalez missing the first three games of the season with a hamstring injury, New England largely avoided the injury bug through the first few months of the season. After Milton Williams landed on injured reserve in Week 11, their luck truly caught up to them in Cincinnati as starting left tackle Will Campbell (ankle) was placed on IR and a handful of fellow starters were lost.
In a positive development, left guard Jared Wilson (ankle) and Brenden Schooler (ankle), who were both sidelined vs. the Giants, were back at practice on Monday. But, Tonga (chest) appeared limited in addition to linebacker Robert Spillane, who played a season-low 38 defensive snaps in Week 13.
“I think that just playing everybody and where we are in the season – Harold [Landry III] was in that category as well,” Vrabel said of the workload. “So, we’ve got a lot of trust in everybody that’s here, and be ready to go and just try to get everybody ready for this next week.”
New England, like every other playoff contender, will hope for continued health down the stretch and the hopeful return of key players in Williams and Campbell from injured reserve.