Last year’s edition of this column ranked all 36 possible national championship combos. This year’s shrunk to 25 out of respect for Tulane and James Madison. They deserve to have their moment in the sun, not be mocked in all 11 of the least-likely scenarios.
Ohio State and Notre Dame, which eventually met in Atlanta, were my fifth-most likely matchup last year. Which two will meet Jan. 19 in Miami?
1. Indiana vs. Ohio State
How we get here: Any doubts Indiana can win the natty went out the window with its Big Ten title game win over the top-ranked Buckeyes. The Hoosiers might have to do it again, though the Buckeyes may have to get through SEC champ Georgia first.
Cool storyline: Indiana, which held the lowest all-time win percentage of any Power 4 program prior to Curt Cignetti’s arrival (it has since passed Wake Forest), playing for a national title against one of the bluest of bluebloods? “Cool” doesn’t do it justice.
Honorary captains: Anthony Thompson and Eddie George
2. Indiana vs. Georgia
How we get here: Ohio State was the nation’s scariest team (besides the Hoosiers) for the first two-thirds of the season, but Kirby Smart’s squad found a new gear shortly after Halloween and looked positively terrifying in stomping Texas and Alabama.
Cool storyline: The two schools share next to nothing in common (besides both wearing red), have never met in a football game and not a single person alive would have ever considered predicting they’d one day meet in a national title game.
Honorary captains: John Mellencamp and Michael Stipe
3. Ohio State vs. Oregon
How we get here: We get here by Oregon going on a full-blown revenge tour after last year’s quarterfinal embarrassment. Dante Moore and the Ducks handle Tulane, then crack Texas Tech’s excellent defense, then win a rematch over Indiana. Just that.
Cool storyline: Beyond the obvious rematch angle from last year’s Rose Bowl, Oregon’s three-decade rise to national prominence is still missing that one last milestone to officially join the blueblood ranks. Getting it by dethroning the reigning national champs would be poetic.
Honorary captains: LeBron James and Sabrina Ionescu
4. Ohio State vs. Texas Tech
How we get here: It started with Cody Campbell and his booster brethren giving Texas Tech $25 million to build a top-five roster, coach Joey McGuire and GM James Blanchard spending it on the right players and the Red Raiders winning their first Big 12 title.
Cool storyline: While not quite as rags-to-riches as Indiana, Texas Tech playing for the national championship would be another “Is this really happening?” moment. For decades we just assumed the Red Raiders’ ceiling was 8-5 and the Texas Bowl.
Honorary captains: Urban Meyer and Kliff Kingsbury
5. Georgia vs. Oregon
How we get here: I thought we might get here last year, when the Ducks and Dawgs were the No. 1 and 2 seeds. Instead, they both lost their first games. This year they’ll have to do something different in December to avoid rust becoming a factor after the long layoff.
Cool storyline: Dan Lanning goes against his former boss, Kirby Smart, whose team handed Lanning a 49-3 butt-kicking in his 2022 Oregon debut. No doubt Lanning has never forgotten Smart saying afterward, “He knows that we got better players.”
Honorary captains: Mark Richt and Mike Bellotti
6. Georgia vs. Texas Tech
How we get here: With two filthy defenses. It’s possible to see Texas Tech’s elite D-line sacking Oregon’s Dante Moore seven times in their quarterfinal or Georgia holding Ole Miss star Kewan Lacy to minus-6 rushing yards.
Cool storyline: Texas Tech’s Behren Morton and Georgia’s Gunner Stockton are anomalies in that they’ve played for only one school. Morton, a fifth-year senior, has battled injuries, while fourth-year junior Stockton waited his turn behind Carson Beck.
Honorary captains: A.J. Green and Michael Crabtree
7. Indiana vs. Texas A&M
How we get here: If you’re wondering why it took Indiana so long to show back up, it’s because I don’t trust any of No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 7 Texas A&M or No. 10 Miami to beat Ohio State and Georgia back-to-back. So, you get a lot of Buckeyes/Dawgs scenarios.
Cool storyline: The Athletic’s very own Kate Hairopoulos, senior editor extraordinaire, is an Indiana alum who covered Texas A&M in the Kevin Sumlin era. Who probably didn’t believe either school would play for a national title, much less both of them.
Honorary captains: Antwaan Randle El and Johnny Manziel
8. Indiana vs. Miami
How we get here: If Carson Beck keeps playing the way he did over the past month, the talented Canes can go on a run. They have a tough road, starting with a trip to Texas A&M, but they could end it at home.
Cool storyline: What a year it would be for this game to be occurring in Miami. The Canes would be playing for their sixth national title in front of their home crowd, and Indiana star Fernando Mendoza would be playing in his hometown.
Honorary captains: Trent Green and Vinny Testaverde
9. Ohio State vs. Alabama
How we get here: Alabama gets here first and foremost by getting healthy, as it badly missed injured RB Jam Miller and DT LT Overton, among others, in the SEC title game, and QB Ty Simpson returns to the level we saw from him earlier in the season.
Cool storyline: Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer hasn’t had the smoothest first two seasons in Tuscaloosa (he’s 19-7). I’d imagine he finally wins over the Alabama faithful if he knocks off No. 1 Indiana at the Rose Bowl and plays for a national title.
Honorary captains: Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry
10. Georgia vs. Alabama
How we get here: It’s a once-every-four-years-tradition. Alabama stunned Georgia in the 2017 national championship game on Tua Tagovailoa’s second-and-26 pass in overtime. The Dawgs got revenge in 2021 on Kelee Ringo’s pick six of Bryce Young. It’s 2025.
Cool storyline: After the Big Ten enjoyed two years of bragging rights over the SEC, the SEC’s twin powers come storming back, knocking out top-two seeds Ohio State and Indiana, respectively, on their path to Miami. … What, that’s not cool?
Honorary captains: George Pickens and DeVonta Smith
11. Oregon vs. Texas A&M
How we get here: Dan Lanning and Mike Elko are two of the best coaches in the sport, and we’re going to be seeing one or both of them in a national championship game sometime soon. Why wait any longer?
Cool storyline: Remember when Texas A&M gave Jimbo Fisher a blank plaque to commemorate his inevitable national title? Jimbo would earn my undying respect if he brought that thing with him to Miami and handed it off to Elko if they win.
Honorary captains: Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill
12. Oregon vs. Miami
How we get here: Oh, boy. It’s the Mario Cristobal Bowl. Ducks fans had a love-hate relationship with a coach who led them to a 2019 Rose Bowl win but also blew quite a few games to inferior foes. He’d win over any holdout Canes fans if they get this far.
Cool storyline: Oregon’s Dante Moore revived his career at Oregon after a rough freshman season at UCLA. Miami’s Carson Beck rebounded from a rough final season at Georgia to lead Miami to its first CFP. One of them would get a Hollywood ending.
Honorary captains: Kaitlin Olson and Dwayne Johnson
13. Indiana vs. Ole Miss
How we get here: Turns out the Rebels don’t Miss their Ole coach, and in fact go on a tear under the recently promoted Pete Golding. Remember, the Rebels led Georgia by two scores entering the fourth quarter of their sole loss this season.
Cool storyline: Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss would be playing for his second straight national championship, having led Ferris State to the D-II title last season. Fernando Mendoza’s last postseason appearance came in the 2023 Independence Bowl for Cal.
Honorary captains: Suzanne Collins and John Grisham
14. Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
How we get here: It’s not far-fetched to get these Southwest Conference/Big 12 rivals back together. Tech is a 12-1 Power 4 champ. A&M is an 11-1 SEC team that rose to No. 3 in the country. Just a couple of upsets, and voila, a Longhorn’s worst nightmare.
Cool storyline: It would be the schools’ first meeting since a 45-40 A&M win in 2011, after which Tech accused A&M of faking injuries, and A&M accused Tech of vandalism. “No feces were found either in or on the buses,” concluded a Tech investigation.
Honorary captains: NiJaree Canady and Mya Perez
15. Texas Tech vs. Miami
How we get here: For years, we used to hear what separated the SEC from everyone else was they hoarded all the great D-linemen. If one of these two wins this year’s national championship, it will be in large part due to their own elite defensive fronts.
Cool storyline: You wanted more parity, you got it. All thanks to NIL. These two programs found their way to relevance in part by overpaying in the portal for certain positions in order to get guys who might have otherwise picked a usual suspect.
Honorary captains: Zach Thomas and Ray Lewis
16. Oregon vs. Ole Miss
How we get here: Not going to lie: I am having trouble talking myself into Ole Miss beating Georgia and Ohio State back-to-back. I’m having even more trouble talking myself into that AND Oregon beating an Indiana team it lost to 30-20 at home.
Cool storyline: After Lane Kiffin bolted Ole Miss before the Playoff, Oregon would be getting to the national championship with a pair of coordinators who have taken Power 4 head coaching jobs in Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal).
Honorary captains: Dan Fouts and Archie Manning
17. Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss
How we get here: Well, it helps that Lane Kiffin saw it in his heart to let all those assistants he forced to get on that plane to LSU take a temporary side gig in Oxford. Maybe Charlie Weis Jr. will be an even better play caller without that guy in his ears.
Cool storyline: You wanted more parity, you got it. All thanks to NIL. If these two schools make it this far, it will be because they’ve had two of the best-run, best-funded NIL collectives over the past two years. Which, of course, the big boys are trying to end.
Honorary captains: Patrick Mahomes and Eli Manning
18. Ohio State vs. Oklahoma
How we get here: Defense still wins championships, at least most of the time, and these are two of the absolute best. Though Brent Venables is going to need to concoct an offense sometime before Jan. 1 unless it plans to upset Indiana without scoring.
Cool storyline: The Buckeyes and Sooners rank No. 1 and 3 all time in weeks spent in the AP poll. They’ve combined to claim 16 national championships. And yet somehow they have never met in the postseason. (And only four times total.)
Honorary captains: Jim Tressel and Bob Stoops
19. Georgia vs. Oklahoma
How we get here: The last time these two met in the CFP, Lincoln Riley and Baker Mayfield put up 531 yards on a Kirby Smart defense, and still lost, 54-48 in overtime, because Nick Chubb and Sony Michel combined to average 13(!) yards per rush.
Cool storyline: Former Georgia head coach and College Football Hall of Fame inductee Jim Donnan was the offensive coordinator for Barry Switzer’s 1985 national championship team. I now realize I should have saved him for honorary captain.
Honorary captains: Jake Fromm and Mayfield
20. Texas A&M vs. Alabama
How we get here: I know how I’ll get there: Hop on a plane from San Francisco to Miami, take an Uber to the stadium and walk up to the press box. Beats me how you get an A&M-Alabama matchup, though.
Cool storyline: The Aggies are 2-10 against Alabama since joining the SEC, but in fairness, they are 0-0 against Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama. Not coincidentally, this would be the first time in any of those games that A&M was the (slight) favorite.
Honorary captains: Zach Calzada and Bryce Young
21. Alabama vs. Miami
How we get here: It would require the 10-3 Tide, loser in two of their past three Power 4 games, toppling 13-0 Indiana, and the 10-2 Canes, which lost to two 8-4 teams this season, knocking out 12-1 Ohio State. In other words, we don’t get here.
Cool storyline: But if we do, it would evoke memories of the 1992 Sugar Bowl, when No. 2 Alabama stunned No. 1 Miami 34-13 to claim the national championship. Because you see, back then, Miami, not Alabama, was the reigning powerhouse of the era.
Honorary captains: George Teague and Lamar Thomas
22. Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
How we get here: This would be the second straight year that the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds played for the national title. Only these teams don’t have backfields of TreVeyon Henderson/Quinshon Judkins and Jeremiyah Love/Jadarian Price.
Cool storyline: I don’t know if you’ve ever heard this before, but apparently Texas A&M has not won a national championship since 1939. Seems impossible, but that’s what ChatGPT told me. That will be one heck of a celebration if the next one ever happens.
Honorary captains: Reggie McNeal and Jason White
23. Ole Miss vs. Alabama
How we get here: I don’t know, but Kiffin might tear up his LSU contract and come back to Ole Miss for the chance to beat Alabama in a national championship game.
Cool storyline: While an 11-1 SEC team would not normally constitute Cinderella story, I’m guessing the public would pull hard for an Ole Miss team whose coach bailed on them that’s facing an Alabama team that much of the public already can’t stand.
Honorary captains: Bo Wallace and Jake Coker
24. Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma
How we get here: Technically, we already did. The Rebels went to Norman on Oct. 25 and won 34-26, with Chambliss throwing for 315 yards and running for 53 on OU’s normally stingy defense. A rematch would be fun. So, it’s probably not going to happen.
Cool storyline: Sooners QB John Mateer was supposed to be a cool story, but OU was almost winning in spite of him down the stretch. His stock would presumably go back up if he and his team turn around and roll off three Playoff wins.
Honorary captains: DK Metcalf/A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb/Marvin Mims
25. Oklahoma vs. Miami
How we get here: By turning back the clock to the early 2000s.
Cool storyline: Oklahoma has a lot of history in South Florida, having played in the Orange Bowl 20 times. One of those came in 1987, when No. 2 Miami beat the top-ranked Sooners. Stoops won his 2000 national title there against Florida State.
Honorary captains: Rocky Calmus and Jonathan Vilma
BONUS: 36. Tulane vs. James Madison
How we get here: Tulane stuns Ole Miss, JMU shocks Oregon and the rest of the field suddenly decides this might be a good time to follow Notre Dame’s lead and bow out.
Cool storyline: With their newfound leverage, the Green Wave and Dukes threaten to boycott the game until the CFP guarantees two berths for Group of 5 teams for eternity.
Honorary captains: Shaun King and Charles Haley