Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown on ankle injury recovery
Amon-Ra St. Brown said he started feeling better two days before the Detroit Lions’ game against the Cowboys, after injuring his ankle Thanksgiving.
A week ago, it seemed absurd.
Even now, with their playoff chances at 40%, according to the The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the Detroit Lions’ chances of getting the 1-seed in the NFC playoffs seems farfetched.
But as they get ready to face the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday, it’s not unreasonable to think the Lions (8-5) can get a first-round playoff bye for the second straight year if they win out.
At the Rams (10-3) this week.Home against the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) next week.At the Minnesota Vikings (5-8) on Christmas Day on short rest.And in potentially snowy and cold Chicago to end the season against Ben Johnson and the Bears (9-4).
The Lions have 5% odds of winning out, per The Athletic’s simulations, which estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times. It gives the Lions a less than 1% chance of being the top seed, and a 40% chance of finishing 10-7.
The Lions have alternated wins and losses over the past eight games. But if they win those four games they will make the playoffs, and might win the NFC North for the third straight year. And if they get a lot of help, the path to San Francisco for Super Bowl LX could go through Ford Field in Detroit.
Here’s how it could happen:
1. Lions win out
None of this is possible unless the Lions beat a Rams team − favored by six points − many think is the best in football, and follow with wins the next three weeks in games they should be favored in. The Lions haven’t won back-to-back games since beating the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals in Weeks 4 and 5, but their offense seemed to turn a corner in last week’s 44-30 win over the Dallas Cowboys, and the Rams are two weeks removed from a loss at the Carolina Panthers (7-6).
A 12-win team has been the No. 1 seed in the playoffs twice since the league went to its 14-team playoff format in 2020. The San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 and were the No. 1 seed in 2023, when they beat the Lions in the NFC championship game then lost in the Super Bowl. And the Tennessee Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs in 2021, when they lost in the divisional round.
There’s a whole bunch of teams that could get to 12 wins in the NFC this year, but many play each other in the next few weeks, and there’s no guarantee anyone gets to 13.
2. Rams lose at Seahawks next Thursday
If the Lions win Sunday, they’ll hold the tiebreaker over the Rams if both teams finish with the same record. LA’s best chance of losing in the final three weeks is next Thursday night in Seattle. The Rams close the season with games against the lowly Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, a team they just beat by four touchdowns. They could lose one of those games, but realistically it’s tough to see it happening.
3. Seahawks lose 2 of their final 4 games
The Seahawks are tied with the Rams for best record in the NFC right now at 10-3. If they win three of their final four games, the Lions can’t pass them in the standings. But if the Lions win out and both teams go 12-5, the Lions will own the common opponent tiebreaker over Seattle. The Seahawks host an Indianapolis Colts team starting a backup quarterback this week, host the Rams, and finish on the road against playoff contenders in the Panthers and 49ers.
Clearly, Lions fans should root for the Colts to win Sunday, but the more likely scenario – considering the Lions probably need a Seattle win over the Rams in Week 16 to catch LA in the standings – is for the Seahawks to lose their final two games.
4. Packers lose 2 of their final 4 games
Even if the Lions win out, they need help to win their division. At 9-3-1, the Packers are currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs and have what amounts to a two-game lead over the Lions in the standings since they swept the season series against the Lions.
Green Bay has tough road games the next two weeks against the Denver Broncos and Bears, and close the season with games against the Baltimore Ravens and Vikings. That’s not an easy stretch – the Broncos are tied for the best record in football, the Bears had a chance to win at Lambeau Field last week and the Ravens are still in the playoff mix – and if the Packers stumble this week and the Lions upset the Rams, the pressure will be on.
The Bears (9-4) are a game ahead of the Lions right now in the standings and have games the next three weeks against the Browns, Packers and 49ers. If the Lions lose to the Rams, they’ll need one of those teams to beat the Bears in order to stay in the wild-card hunt. But if the Lions win out, they would hold all tiebreakers with the Bears after a win in Week 18 to sweep the season series.
5. 49ers lose 2 of their final 4 games
The 49ers are the sleeper team everyone seems to be forgetting about in the NFC playoff race. They’re 9-4 and in third place in the NFC West, but they’re coming off a bye and have a manageable schedule down the stretch with games against the Tennessee Titans, Colts, Bears and Seahawks. The 49ers should waltz over the Titans this week and likely will be heavy favorites next week in their final road game at Indianapolis. If you’re rooting from home, you’ll want to cheer for an upset because the 49ers would own the tiebreaker with the Lions if both teams finish 12-5 based on conference record.
Dave Birkett covers the Lions for the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Bluesky, X and Instagram at @davebirkett.