The Dallas Cowboys woke up Tuesday morning with something unexpected: their playoff chances actually improved overnight, despite doing nothing at all. The Eagles’ Monday night loss to the Chargers slightly reshuffled the NFC race, nudging Dallas’ mathematical odds upward, but not by enough to call this anything more than a long shot.
At 6-6-1, the Cowboys sit 10th in the NFC and remain steadily outside the playoff picture. Most projections still paint a grim outlook:
ESPN Analytics: ~6–8% playoff probabilityThe Athletic’s model: ~8–9%NYT Simulator: Up to 40–46% if and only if they win out
That “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Dallas must run the table over the final four weeks, and even then, they’d need a helping hand from bitter rival Philadelphia.
The Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East if they win out and the Philadelphia Eagles lose two more games.
Cowboys (6-6-1) remaining games:
– MIN
– LAC
– at WAS
– at NYG
Eagles (8-5) remaining games:
– LV
– at WAS
– at BUF
– WAS
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) December 9, 2025
How the Cowboys fell into this hole
The Cowboys’ freefall began long before kickoff against Detroit, but Week 14’s 44–30 loss felt like the moment hope was truly lost. Dallas has since unraveled in almost every key area: red-zone defense, explosive plays allowed, and late-game execution.
The most damaging variable for Dallas is their conference record. They sits at 3-5-1 in NFC play, a tiebreaker nightmare that leaves them behind nearly every contender they’re competing with.
The path: win out or it’s over
Here’s the Cowboys’ remaining schedule:
Week 15: vs Minnesota VikingsWeek 16: vs Los Angeles ChargersWeek 17: @ Washington CommandersWeek 18: @ New York Giants
This is the definition of “winnable but treacherous”. The Chargers are the clear obstacle. Washington, meanwhile, becomes a different team if Jayden Daniels suits up. And the Giants, despite their record, have been spoilers in late-season divisional games before.
If Dallas wins all four, they finish 10-6-1, which gives them roughly a 46% chance to sneak into the postseason. Anything less than 4-0 ends the conversation immediately.
What the Cowboys need from the Eagles
To win the NFC East, Dallas needs the Eagles (currently 8-5) to collapse down the stretch. Specifically, Philadelphia must lose at least three of its final five.
Eagles’ remaining schedule:
Week 15: vs RaidersWeek 16: @ CommandersWeek 17: @ BillsWeek 18: vs Commanders
Realistically, Dallas needs the Eagles to lose to Buffalo, and split their two matchups with Washington. It’s not impossible, but “not impossible” isn’t exactly reassuring.
As for the wild card, that’s even tougher. Dallas would need one of the following to fall apart completely:
Seattle SeahawksChicago BearsGreen Bay PackersDetroit LionsSan Francisco 49ers
All currently hold stronger records, stronger tiebreakers, or both. The math says the NFC’s playoff door is shutting fast… but it’s not locked.
So, can the Cowboys still make it?
Technically, yes. Realistically, only if everything goes their way.
Dallas needs:
Four straight winsA multi-week Eagles skidHelp from around the NFC if wild-card chaos eruptsTo avoid any more defensive meltdowns
This is the kind of scenario that keeps playoff simulators in business and Cowboys fans up at night. The hope isn’t gone, but it’s hanging by a thread, and the Cowboys have burned through any cushion they once had. From here on out, every possession is effectively a playoff snap.
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