The Raiders sit 2-11 and for the first time in what seems a while for the franchise, the first overall selection is in play and the Raiders are not relying on anyone but themselves going forward. The Raiders remaining four games include away games vs the Eagles and Texans before coming home to end the season against the Giants and Chiefs. As things sit the Raiders have a 22.5% chance to beat the Eagles, 23.9% vs the Texans, 40.2% vs the Giants, and 21.9% vs the Chiefs. This season, ESPN analytics would have the Raiders at 2-11 the exact same as their record and this season Las Vegas has held firm to the projections going into each game. At 2-15 it would be among the Raiders worse finishes in franchise history, but with that comes the first overall selection.
Las Vegas is a 10 point underdog or greater to the Eagles, Chiefs, and Texans and 4.5 underdogs to the Giants. Currently, three teams are tied for the worst record in the NFL, the Giants, Raiders, and Titans with both New York and Tennessee holding rookie quarterbacks which makes the draft class interesting. Additionally, former Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders has looked like an intriguing option in Cleveland along with DeShaun Watson expected to return next season opening an avenue they do not select a quarterback this year. In addition, other quarterback needy teams such as the Saints have seen Tyler Shough showcase the traits necessary to warrant giving him another season going forward. Removing the Saints and Browns would leave the Raiders and New York Jets, who select 7th overall, as the likely QB needy teams inside the top 10 with a potential for the Cardinals and Rams (via ATL) to also explore a quarterback. Las Vegas will find themselves with the first overall pick if they lose out, given the worst record in the NFL via a Giants win in week 17. With a win vs the Giants the Raiders record rises to 3-11 which could slot them anywhere from 3rd to 9th overall largely due to their .551 SOS which is the 3rd highest among all non playoff teams (Titans at .571 and Cardinals at .568).
The Raiders would then have their choice of Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or Oregon’s Dante Moore should Moore declare. Additionally, Las Vegas would hold the first overall pick for the first time since 2007 and just the second time in franchise history. The Raiders, Mark Davis, and Raiders fans would hoping that Mendoza turns out far better than Jamarcus Russell did and all signs to this point would indicate that’s a likely possibility. With holding the first overall pick, and with that a young quarterback, the Raiders would likely increase how attractive their current head coaching job is if the team was to move on from Pete Carrol as reports recently have indicated in addition to Carrol having the highest odds to be the next HC fired.