KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) – On the brink of missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs playoff odds are slim.
Following a 20-10 loss to the Houston Texans Sunday night, the 6-7 Chiefs have a 12% chance to make the playoffs according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator.
In order to extend the Chiefs’ 10-season playoff appearance streak, here’s what needs to happen.
Step 1: Chiefs win out
With games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos at home and against the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders on the road, winning out would give Kansas City a 10-7 record.
If the Chiefs win out, the playoff simulator gives Kansas City a 46% chance to make the playoffs. That’s because Kansas City’s lack of playoff tiebreakers leave the Chiefs needing additional help.
Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) tires to fire up the crowd during the second half of an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)(Ed Zurga | AP)Step 2: Colts lose twice
Kansas City’s Week 12 win over the Indianapolis Colts gave them at least one tiebreaker against an AFC playoff contender.
The Colts, who just lost starting quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with a torn Achilles and signed 44-year-old Philip Rivers to potentially fill in, close the season with four games against teams with winning records.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws while being pressured by Indianapolis Colts defensive end Laiatu Latu (97) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)(Reed Hoffmann | AP)
Colts remaining schedule
WeekOpponent15@ Seattle Seahawks (10-3)16vs. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)17vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)18@ Houston Texans (8-5)
The Colts losing at least twice would put them at no better than a 10-7 record.
Step 3: Chargers lose to either Dallas or Houston + Week 18 to Broncos
Because the Chargers are currently 4-0 in the AFC West, Los Angeles would win any divisional tiebreaker unless they lose in Week 18 to the Broncos. If that happens, Kansas City would be able to advance to the playoffs due to a better win-loss percentage in common games.
The Chiefs and Chargers’ common opponents (outside of the AFC West) this season would be the NFC East, and AFC South.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passes against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half of an NFL football game, Friday, Sept. 5, 2025, in Sao Paulo. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)(Fernando Llano | AP)
Kansas City went 2-2 against both the NFC East and AFC South. Los Angeles is currently 1-2 against NFC East opponents and 1-2 against AFC South opponents, which is why a loss to either Dallas or Houston in Week 16 or 17 would help the Chiefs win that tiebreaker.
What it may come down to: Chargers-Broncos
Kansas City’s playoff hopes may come down to whether the Broncos defeat the Chargers in Denver in Week 18.
If that’s the case, Kansas City may be hopeful Denver still has the No. 1 seed to play for. That means games involving the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos remain important.
If the Chargers defeat the Broncos in Week 18, the only other (somewhat) plausible scenario would require the Texans to go 1-3 over the final three weeks of the season, with games against Arizona, Las Vegas and Indianapolis at home and the Chargers on the road.
Copyright 2025 KCTV. All rights reserved.