The NFL MVP odds have solidified into a pair of favorites who keep swapping spots as the minus-odds leader. This week, Matthew Stafford pulled himself back into the lead (-175) and sits as the favorite over Drake Maye (+200). For a few weeks now, it has been Maye and Stafford trading the top spot.
But in Week 15, it’s a slightly different pair that has our attention: Drake Maye vs. Josh Allen. The two are on a collision course in Week 15, with the Buffalo Bills heading to New England for an AFC East brawl. The Patriots won the first matchup back in October and would clinch the AFC East title with a win. Thus, Sunday’s clash is the stage not just for postseason arguments, but potentially MVP cases, too.
Allen is fourth in the odds, but at a rather distant +1400 compared to Maye’s and Stafford’s numbers. But with Maye in his sights on Sunday, Allen could make a serious play for the top tier again.
After all, MVP is as much about appearances and narrative as it is about resume and stats.
Here are the odds for NFL MVP heading into Week 15.
Live NFL MVP odds
The argument for Allen
Last week, Maye was the minus-odds favorite at -120, an implied chance of about 55 percent. Stafford was at +115.
Allen’s odds, at +1400, suggest he has about a 7 percent likelihood of winning. That’s a reasonable improvement from last week at +2500 (25-to-1), thanks to his monster performance against Joe Burrow’s Bengals, where he went 22-of-28 for 251 yards, four total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) and zero interceptions.
But, even with that, how real are Allen’s chances, considering the top two contenders? Joe Buscaglia, writer for The Athletic covering the Bills, weighed in:
“After their heroic win over the Bengals, Allen’s big plays and ability to take over a game went from dormant early in the year to on display for the world to see,” Buscaglia said. “Allen has been doing the same ridiculous things for so long that there’s almost a desensitization to the sheer ridiculousness of some of his big plays. His fourth-and-4 touchdown shot through multiple defenders to Khalil Shakir was one. And then his recognition of man coverage against the Bengals to immediately tuck and run it 40 yards for a touchdown, setting the franchise record for the longest scoring run by a Bills quarterback since … Josh Allen set the record only years before, is just the icing on the cake to his talent.
“When he plays like that, which is becoming more commonplace for the Bills in the late stages of this season, he can easily flip the MVP odds on its head to become the favorite — especially with how wide open the entire NFL seems in 2025. If Allen engineers the Bills to a win in Foxborough on Sunday and follows that up with a win in another highly visible late afternoon home game in Week 17 against the Eagles, a second MVP award in as many years is certainly doable.”
Of course, with all this said, it’ll be quite the challenge to surmount the resumes of Maye and Stafford, who seem to own the MVP race at this point.
At just 23, Maye is already a star after just 25 pro starts, and he’s top five in most relevant quarterback statistics — first in completion percentage, third in passing yards per game, fourth in touchdowns, second in EPA per play, etc.
But that’s why a chance to challenge Maye head-on could really shift perspective on Allen and which of the two is the worthier candidate.
Whether Allen can unseat both of them is a long shot, but an intriguing one in a market that doesn’t always offer many plot twists this deep into the season.
P.S. Don’t forget Jordan Love
We’ve talked about the top four, and there’s a fourth name we haven’t dropped yet: Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love. He’s the guy in third at +1000. And the Packers just happen to be headed to a monster matchup themselves: at Denver. If you think Love can put up big numbers and a splashy performance against Denver’s defense — the tallest of orders — you might wanna throw something on him this week.