Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, as has been the case throughout his team’s recent skid, didn’t sugarcoat his team’s playoff hopes after Sunday’s 20-10 home loss to the Houston Texans.

“We know the chances are getting lower and lower,” Mahomes said in his news conference after the game, “but I know the guys on this team are going to give everything they have, every opportunity they get.”

The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator puts some numbers behind Mahomes’ accurate assertion.

K.C. (6-7) has roughly a 12 percent chance to make the playoffs, though that number rises significantly if you take the most optimistic view of how this season might turn out.

If the Chiefs win their next four games — vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, at Tennessee, vs. Denver and at Las Vegas — then their postseason odds jump to 45 percent.

No, the Chiefs don’t control their destiny anymore. But sift through the scenarios, and one non-Chiefs game looms above all others when it comes to affecting the team’s playoff probability.

That would be the Week 18 Chargers-Broncos game. The Chiefs winning out, combined with a Broncos victory there, would put K.C. at 72 percent to make the playoffs. Win out with a Chargers victory, though, and the Chiefs’ probability drops to 7 percent.

Why is that? At this point, it’s all about tiebreakers.

K.C. has done itself no favors in that regard. The Chiefs have lost head-to-head against Jacksonville, Buffalo and Houston, and because of that, they essentially need to pass those teams in the standings to claim one of the final AFC playoff spots.

Think about it that way, and a most likely scenario emerges for the Chiefs to move into the postseason field.

That would involve winning out, combined with three things happening:

1. Indianapolis (8-5) losing two of its next four games. K.C. has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis, and the Colts are also dealing with a quarterback crisis after quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending injury.

2. Chargers (9-4) dropping three of their next four games, including Sunday’s matchup against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

3. K.C. avoiding this exact scenario: Baltimore going 4-0 and Pittsburgh going 3-1, with its only loss coming against the Ravens in Week 18.

If the Chiefs and Chargers finish the season tied at 10-7 and split their head-to-head matchups, the Chiefs would move above the Chargers thanks to the third tiebreaker: record against common opponents.

The stars aren’t likely to align that way, but if they did, it could set up a fascinating Week 18 scenario.

The Broncos could be playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed in their final game. But they might also enter the game knowing they could keep the Chiefs out of the playoffs with a loss.

Denver, however, also could find itself locked into the No. 2 seed. If that happened, the Chiefs might have to resort to cheering for Broncos backups to succeed in a game in which the Chargers would have a lot to play for.

Should the Chargers beat the Broncos in that season finale, the Chiefs’ chances to make the postseason shrink to almost nil. They’d essentially need another AFC team to fall behind them in the standings, meaning Buffalo (9-4) or Jacksonville (9-4) would have to lose out or Houston (8-5) would need to drop three of four. That would need to happen along with the Colts losing two as well.

The flip side for the Chiefs is also possible this week: They could be eliminated from playoff contention altogether. FTN Fantasy’s Bryan Knowles laid out all those pathways this week, and the most likely of which involves a Chiefs loss, a Bills victory and two of the three contending AFC South teams (Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis) winning this weekend.

It adds up to an unfamiliar position for the Chiefs, who have made 10 consecutive playoff appearances — the second-longest streak in NFL history. That trails only the New England Patriots, who clinched 11 straight postseason berths from 2009 to 2019.