Winners of 10 straight games and owners of an 11-2 record overall, the New England Patriots are in the driver’s seat for their first AFC East championship since 2019. In fact, they can secure the title as early as this Sunday. Standing in their way, however, is a formidable opponent: the five-time reigning division champion Buffalo Bills.

The two teams already met earlier this season, with the Patriots celebrating a 23-20 upset win on the road. A lot has changed in the two months since, however, so let’s take a closer look at New England’s upcoming opponent.

Even though they are in second place in the division and ranked sixth overall in the AFC entering Week 15, the Bills are one of the statistically best teams in the NFL: they are a top-5 offense in most categories, as well as an above-average defense.

Record: 9-4 (2nd AFC East/6th AFC)
Scoring differential: +83 (5th)
Turnover differential: -1 (t-16th)
Offense: 28.9 points/game (5th), 383.7 yards/game (2nd), 18 giveaways (t-23rd), 0.141 EPA/play (3rd), 0.251 EPA/dropback (3rd), -0.006 EPA/run (7th)
Defense: 22.5 points/game (14th), 307.1 yards/game (10th), 17 takeaways (t-10th), 0.012 EPA/play (16th), -0.013 EPA/dropback (10th), 0.045 EPA/run (31st)

Buffalo is potent team on both sides of the ball, with its well-rounded offense a particular problem. The group has been productive moving the ball both through the air and on the ground, with turnovers as the biggest hindrance when it comes to sustained success: the Bills are 1-4 when losing the turnover battle, including their game against the Patriots earlier this year.

Defensively, the unit has played some solid football in all but one areas: Buffalo’s run defense has been bad, ranking 31st in EPA per run as well as 32nd in touchdowns and 29th in yards per carry.

The Bills were 4-0 the last time they met the Patriots, but have since experienced some hardship: they are only 5-4 since, even though they have managed to win two in a row entering Week 15 and are still alive in the race for the AFC East title.

Week 1: 41-40 win vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-0)
Week 2: 30-10 win at New York Jets (2-0)
Week 3: 31-21 win vs. Miami Dolphins (3-0)
Week 4: 31-19 win vs. New Orleans Saints (4-0)
Week 5: 23-20 loss vs. New England Patriots (4-1)
Week 6: 24-14 loss at Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: 40-9 win at Carolina Panthers (5-2)
Week 9: 28-21 win vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
Week 10: 30-13 loss at Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Week 11: 44-32 win vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
Week 12: 23-19 loss at Houston Texans (7-4)
Week 13: 26-7 win at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-4)
Week 14: 39-34 win vs. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4)

What stands out when looking at Buffalo’s season so far is a split between home and road success. While the team is 6-1 in Orchard Park — the lone loss coming against the Patriots in Week 5 — it is only 3-3 on the road; not bad per, but not necessarily up to the expected standard either.

Roster up-to-date as of Dec. 10, 5 a.m. ET | *denotes projected starter

Quarterback (2): Josh Allen* (17), Mitchell Trubisky (11)

Running back (4): James Cook III* (4), Ty Johnson (26), Reggie Gilliam (41 | FB), Ray Davis (22 | KR)

Wide receiver (6): Khali Shakir* (10 | PR), Gabe Davis* (13), Tyrell Shavers (14), Keon Coleman (0), Brandin Cooks (18), Joshua Palmer (5)

Tight end (3): Dalton Kincaid* (86), Dawson Knox* (88), Jackson Hawes (85)

Offensive tackle (5): Dion Dawkins* (73 | LT), Spencer Brown* (79 | RT), Ryan Van Demark (74), Chase Lundt (77), Tylan Grable (68)

Interior offensive line (5): David Edwards* (76 | LG), Connor McGovern* (66 | C), O’Cyrus Torrence* (64 | RG), Alec Anderson (70), Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62)

Interior defensive line (6): DaQuan Jones* (92), Deone Walker* (96), Jordan Phillips (52), T.J. Sanders (98), Larry Ogunjobi (99), Phidarian Mathis (72)

Defensive edge (5): Greg Rousseau* (50), Joey Bosa* (97), A.J. Epenesa (57), Javon Solomon (56)

Linebacker (5): Matt Milano* (58), Terrel Bernard* (8), Dorian Williams (42), Shaq Thompson (45), Joe Andreessen (44)

Cornerback (5): Christian Benford* (47), Taron Johnson* (7), Tre’Davious White* (27), Maxwell Hairston (31), Cam Lewis (39)

Safety (5): Cole Bishop* (24), Jordan Poyer* (21), Sam Franklin Jr. (28), Jordan Hancock (37), Darnell Savage (25)

Specialists (3): Matt Prater (15 | K), Mitch Wishnowsky (19 | P/H), Reid Ferguson (69 | LS)

Quarterback Josh Allen remains the engine that powers the Bills offense, and one of the best quarterbacks in all of football. As dangerous a dual-threat weapon as there is in football, the reigning league MVP is again playing on a high level.

In his 13 games this season, Allen has completed 265 of 378 pass attempts (70.1%) for 3,083 yards, 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. In addition, he has also carried the ball 75 times for 501 yards — an average of 6.9 yards per non-kneel-down run — and 12 total scores.

For as good as Allen is, he is not the only noteworthy player on that side of the ball. Running back James Cook, for example, is in the middle of a career season and leading the team with 1,575 scrimmage yards, 1,308 of them coming on the ground (ranking second in the NFL with an average of 100.6 per game). He also has found the end zone a combined nine times, second only to his quarterback.

The rest of the Bills’ offense, meanwhile, has experienced some change. While Khalil Shakir remains Allen’s top target and is leading the tem with 57 catches for 585 yards, No. 2 Keon Coleman has started falling out of favor: he was a healthy scratch in Weeks 11 and 12 and has only played 37% of snaps with four catches for 25 yards and a touchdown in the two games since his return.

With him sliding down the depth chart, Curtis Samuel moving to injured reserve and Elijah Moore being released, the Bills’ passing game now features a healthy dose of Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers. Veteran tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid also continue to be heavily involved.

On defense, standout defensive tackle Ed Oliver is out for the foreseeable future with a torn biceps; in his place, fourth-round rookie Deone Walker has solidified himself as a starter along the interior D-line. He is surrounded by some experience, with DaQuan Jones still going strong at soon-to-be 34 and Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau providing pressure from the edge. Bosa, who has notched a team-high five sacks, is ranked first in the league with five forced fumbles.

At the second level, Matt Milano is the most prominent player. Even though he has dealt with injuries each of the last two seasons and seems to have lost a step compared to his All-Pro days, he remains a core player for what Buffalo does on the defensive side of the ball; he and Terrel Bernard are a formidable duo at the linebacker position.

The Bills are also quite experienced in the secondary, with starting cornerbacks Christian Benford, Tre’Davious White and Taron Johnson all multi-year veterans. The team also has gotten first-round rookie Maxwell Hairston back after an earlier stint on injured reserve. Speaking of IR, safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin are both on the reserve list now, with another experienced option — Jordan Poyer — being brought back to help fill the void next to Cole Bishop.

Buffalo’s kicking game operation also has handled some change this year. Due to injury, the team is on its third punter this season, even though Mitch Wishnowsky has proven himself a solid player. Kicker Matt Prater, meanwhile, joined in early September after regular option Tyler Bass got hurt; Prater is 18-of-20 on field goals so far and has made 38 of 41 extra points.

Practice squad (16): QB Shane Buechele (6), RB Frank Gore Jr. (20), WR Stephen Gosnell (89), TE Keleki Latu (83), OL Kendrick Green (53), DT Tommy Akingbesote (71), DT Morgan Fox (75), DT Zion Logue (93), ED Andre Jones Jr. (59), ED Keonta Jenkins (49), ED Shaq Lawson (51), LB Braylon Spector (54), CB Brandon Codrington (29), CB Te’Cory Couch (33), CB M.J. Devonshire (36), CB Dane Jackson (23)

Practice squad exempt (1): OT Travis Clayton (67)

Injured reserve (11): WR Mecole Hardman, WR Curtis Samuel, DT DeWayne Carter, DT Ed Oliver, ED Michael Hoecht, ED Landon Jackson, CB Dorian Strong, S Damar Hamlin, S Wande Owens, S Taylor Rapp, K Tyler Bass, P Cameron Johnston

Did not report (1): CB Darius Slay

The Bills’ reserve list saw quite a bit of change since Week 5, including several important players moving to injured reserve. Curtis Samuel, Ed Oliver and Taylor Rapp all played sizable roles against the Patriots the last time around.

In addition, it is clear that the Bills are not exactly thrilled about their cornerback depth. Besides trying to bring in veteran Darius Slay, who opted not to report, they also have four CBs on their practice squad to give them nine total options to choose from.

Head coach: Sean McDermott

Coordinators: Joe Brady (OC), Bobby Babich (DC), Chris Tabor (ST)

One of the most successful head coaches in the NFL today, Sean McDermott is in his ninth season in Buffalo. Since his arrival in 2017, he helped the organization end an 18-year playoff drought, qualify for the tournament seven times, and win five straight AFC East titles. Playoff success has eluded him to a large degree — the team is 7-7 with two trips to the AFC Championship as the high point — but McDermott has helped turn the former laughing stock into a serious contender year in and year out.

His staff, which added Chris Tabor as special teams coordinator this offseason, also features a rather familiar face: Mike Pellegrino, a longtime Patriots assistant and two-time Super Bowl winner, joined the Bills as their nickel coach earlier this year.